Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical rainforest

Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO₂ sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO₂ fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America.     

Glacial conditions that contribute to the regeneration of Fountain Glacier proglacial icing,Bylot Island,Canada

Proglacial icings are one of the most common forms of extrusive ice found in the Canadian Arctic. However, the icing adjacent to Fountain Glacier, Bylot Island, is unique due to its annual cycle of growth and decay, and perennial existence without involving freezing point depression of water due to chemical characteristics. Its regeneration depends on the availability of subglacial water and on the balance between ice accretion and hydro‐thermal erosion. The storage and conduction of the glacial meltwater involved in the accretion of the icing were analyzed by conducting topographic and ground penetrating radar surveys in addition to the modelling of the subglacial drainage network and the thermal characteristics of the glacier base. The reflection power analysis of the geophysical data shows that some areas of the lower ablation zone have a high accumulation of liquid water, particularly beneath the centre part of the glacier along the main supraglacial stream. A dielectric permittivity model of the glacier – sediment interface suggests that a considerable portion of the glacier is warm based; allowing water to flow through unfrozen subglacial sediments towards the proglacial outwash plain. All these glacier‐related characteristics contribute to the annual regeneration of the proglacial icing and allow for portions of the icing to be perennial. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia during a stormy winter period

The consequences of a stormy winter period (2009/2010) on the shelf and coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia are analysed by using model results in combination with the set of available observations in the frame of the Iberian Margin Ocean Observatory (RAIA), a cross-border infrastructure among North Portugal and Galicia (Spain). During the study winter, the frequent arrival of weather fronts forced river plumes to flow along the inner shelf in a fast (>1 m?s^?1) jet-like structure. The buoyant current strongly influenced the outer rías, the name of the estuaries in the region, where a strong decay of surface salinity (<10.5) has been observed. Once the weather front has passed, the wind reversal forced the offshore expansion of river plumes and also the development of a winter upwelling event. Thermohaline patterns in both model and observations revealed an intrusion of warm (>15 °C) and salty (>35.9) waters into the rías associated with the Iberian Poleward Current. Finally, some Lagrangian modelling experiments were performed to analyse the transport ability of the plume and the effect that could have had in the biological material trapped on it. The experiments reveal that an overall northward displacement of surface particles will be expected after several alternate wind events.     

An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction

Cyclogenesis and long-fetched winds along the southeastern coast of South America may lead to floods in populated areas, as the Buenos Aires Province, with important economic and social impacts. A numerical model (SMARA) has already been implemented in the region to forecast storm surges. The propagation time of the surge in such extensive and shallow area allows the detection of anomalies based on observations from several hours up to the order of a day prior to the event. Here, we investigate the impact and potential benefit of storm surge level data assimilation into the SMARA model, with the objective of improving the forecast. In the experiments, the surface wind stress from an ensemble prediction system drives a storm surge model ensemble, based on the operational 2-D depth-averaged SMARA model. A 4-D Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) initializes the ensemble in a 6-h cycle, assimilating the very few tide gauge observations available along the northern coast and satellite altimeter data. The sparse coverage of the altimeters is a challenge to data assimilation; however, the 4D-LETKF evolving covariance of the ensemble perturbations provides realistic cross-track analysis increments. Improvements on the forecast ensemble mean show the potential of an effective use of the sparse satellite altimeter and tidal gauges observations in the data assimilation prototype. Furthermore, the effects of the localization scale and of the observational errors of coastal altimetry and tidal gauges in the data assimilation approach are assessed.     

Hazardous processes and events from glacier and permafrost areas: lessons from the Chilean and Argentinean Andes

Glacier and permafrost hazards such as glacial‐lake outburst floods and rock–ice avalanches cause significant socio‐economic damages worldwide, and these processes may increase in frequency and magnitude if the atmospheric temperature rises. In the extratropical Andes nearly 200 human deaths were linked to these processes during the twentieth century. We analysed bibliographical sources and satellite images to document the glacier and permafrost dynamics that have caused socio‐economic damages in this region in historic time (including glacial lake outburst floods, ice and rock–ice avalanches and lahars) to unravel their causes and geomorphological impacts. In the extratropical Andes, at least 15 ice‐dammed lakes and 16 moraine‐dammed lakes have failed since the eighteenth century, causing dozens of floods. Some floods rank amongst the largest events ever recorded (5000 × 10⁶ m³ and 229 × 10⁶ m³, respectively). Outburst flood frequency has increased in the last three decades, partially as a consequence of long‐term (decades to centuries) climatic changes, glaciers shrinkage, and lake growth. Short‐term (days to weeks) meteorological conditions (i.e. intense and/or prolonged rainfall and high temperature that increased meltwater production) have also triggered outburst floods and mass movements. Enormous mass failures of glaciers and permafrost (> 10 × 10⁶ m³) have impacted lakes, glaciers, and snow‐covered valleys, initiating chain reactions that have ultimately resulted in lake tsunamis and far‐reaching (> 50 km) flows. The eruption of ice‐covered volcanoes has also caused dozens of damaging lahars with volumes up to 45 × 10⁶ m³. Despite the importance of these events, basic information about their occurrence (e.g. date, causes, and geomorphological impact), which is well established in other mountain ranges, is absent in the extratropical Andes. A better knowledge of the processes involved can help to forecast and mitigate these events. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parallel distributed computing using Python

This work presents two software components aimed to relieve the costs of accessing high-performance parallel computing resources within a Python programming environment: MPI for Python and PETSc for Python.MPI for Python is a general-purpose Python package that provides bindings for the Message Passing Interface (MPI) standard using any back-end MPI implementation. Its facilities allow parallel Python programs to easily exploit multiple processors using the message passing paradigm. PETSc for Python provides access to the Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc) libraries. Its facilities allow sequential and parallel Python applications to exploit state of the art algorithms and data structures readily available in PETSc for the solution of large-scale problems in science and engineering.MPI for Python and PETSc for Python are fully integrated to PETSc-FEM, an MPI and PETSc based parallel, multiphysics, finite elements code developed at CIMEC laboratory. This software infrastructure supports research activities related to simulation of fluid flows with applications ranging from the design of microfluidic devices for biochemical analysis to modeling of large-scale stream/aquifer interactions.     

Foraminiferal responses to polluted sediments in the Montevideo coastal zone, Uruguay

A study of foraminiferal assemblages was carried out in 24 sediment samples collected from the Montevideo coastal zone (south-eastern coastal region of South America) to assess the response of the benthic foraminifera to the polluted sediments. The area is affected by different pollutants such as sewage, hydrocarbons and heavy metals derived from different sources. Biological data were analyzed with multivariate techniques of cluster analysis and a principal component analysis (PCA) was performed for abiotic factors. The results allowed the recognition of different species assemblages corresponding to different sub-environments, which reflected the prevalent ecological conditions. The Montevideo Bay, particularly, its inner part showed an extremely poor foraminiferal fauna-including a totally azoic station-and high percentages of abnormal tests, when compared with the adjacent Punta Carretas and Punta Yeguas zones. Mean faunal density showed a strong relationship with organic matter, oxygen and heavy metal concentrations, as well as redox potential and pH values of each sub-environment. Although the adjacent zones presented a moderate pollution degree, it was noticed that a positive effect on the foraminiferal density specially on Ammonia tepida, caused by the sewage pipe located in Punta Carretas, a pure organic contamination. Differences among foraminiferal assemblages seemed to be related to the combined action of the several kinds of pollutants and the natural abiotic variables, like the rapid salinity changes that occurred in this area.     

Two-dimensional modeling of fine sediment transport with mixed sediment and consolidation: Application to the Gironde Estuary,France

In order to optimize ship navigation in the macrotidal Gironde Estuary, a recent project funded by the port of Bordeaux aims at better understand and forecast hydrodynamic and fine sediment transport within the estuary. In the framework of this project, a two-dimensional hydro-sedimentary model is built. The model includes hydrodynamic forcings, mixed-sediment transport, and consolidation processes. The harmonic analysis of the astronomical tides reveals a strong distortion of the tidal wave inducing the growth of overtide constituents and the non-significant effect of tide-surge interactions in annual-scale prediction. Depending on hydrological conditions, river discharge can considerably alter the model accuracy due to the migration of the turbidity maximum zone modifying the bottom roughness. Comparison with measurements shows the ability of the model to reproduce suspended-sediment concentrations in the central Estuary. Sensitivity of the model to sediment features has also been discussed in regard of suspended-sediment concentrations and fluid mud deposits. The model will be further coupled with ship squat predictions and a morphodynamic model.     

Urban Dispersion Modelling and Experiments in the Daytime and Nighttime Atmosphere

An analytical model of atmospheric dispersion in urban areas in both daytime and nighttime conditions is presented. The model is based on a Gaussian formulation where the horizontal and vertical diffusion coefficients are determined according to analytical theories. The model is validated with dispersion measurements from field experiments conducted in Oklahoma City, Salt Lake City, St. Louis and London, U.K. The theory is in good agreement with the data for both daytime and nighttime conditions. The data support the conclusion that the magnitude of the nighttime stratification in the urban atmosphere is weak; however, its effects on dispersion are not negligible. The predicted existence of two distinct dispersion regimes, in the near and in the far field, is also confirmed by the data. The good collapse of the data suggests that urban dispersion is governed by the characteristic length scales of atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence, rather than urban canopy length scales that are more likely to affect dispersion only in the vicinity of the source.     

Large-sample hydrology: recent progress,guidelines for new datasets and grand challenges

ABSTRACT

Large-sample hydrology (LSH) relies on data from large sets (tens to thousands) of catchments to go beyond individual case studies and derive robust conclusions on hydrological processes and models. Numerous LSH datasets have recently been released, covering a wide range of regions and relying on increasingly diverse data sources to characterize catchment behaviour. These datasets offer novel opportunities, yet they are also limited by their lack of comparability, uncertainty estimates and characterization of human impacts. This article (i) underscores the key role of LSH datasets in hydrological studies, (ii) provides a review of currently available LSH datasets, (iii) highlights current limitations of LSH datasets and (iv) proposes guidelines and coordinated actions to overcome these limitations. These guidelines and actions aim to standardize and automatize the creation of LSH datasets worldwide, and to enhance the reproducibility and comparability of hydrological studies.