A positive definite continuous FEM model for advection

This work introduces a continuous and sign-preserving finite element model (FEM) for advection problems. The model is formulated by integrating flux corrected transport technique (FCT) with the characteristic based (CB) FEM. Low order solution for the FCT has the form of element contribution and derives from an upwind monotone scheme with the minimum necessary diffusion for positivity. Selected numerical experiments illustrate the efficacy of the method by comparing results with some successful models, by demonstrating an approximate conservation of the accuracy of original CB algorithm once the complete procedure is operating, and by testing the model for severe time dependent advective flows.     

Soil erosion rates in rangelands of northeastern Patagonia: A dendrogeomorphological analysis using exposed shrub roots

Soil erosion is an important process of land degradation in many rangelands and a significant driver of desertification in the world's drylands. Dendrogeomorphology is an alternative to traditional methods for determining soil erosion rate. Specifically, the vertical distance between the upper portion of exposed roots and the actual soil surface can be used as a bioindicator of erosion since plant establishment. In this study, we determined (i) the soil erosion rate from exposed roots of the dwarf shrub Margyricarpus pinnatus [Lam.] Kuntze in two ecological sites in the northeastern rangelands of Patagonia and (ii) the relationship between shrub age and upper root diameter. We selected two ecological sites, a pediment-like plateau and a flank pediment, where the dominant soils were Xeric Haplocalcids and Xeric Calciargids, respectively. The soil erosion rates in the pediment-like plateau and in the flank pediment were 2.4 and 3.1 mm yr^− 1, respectively. Data clearly indicate a high rate of soil erosion during the mean 8-year life span of the dwarf shrubs in degraded patches, which represent ~ 10% of surface cover in the study area. Simple linear regression analysis yielded a highly significant predictive model for age estimation of M. pinnatus plants using the upper root diameter as a predictor variable. The measurement of ground lowering against datable exposed roots represents a simple method for the determination of soil erosion rates. In combination with other soil surface features, it was used to infer the episodic nature of soil erosion. This approach could be particularly useful for monitoring the effects of land management practices on recent soil erosion and for the establishment of records in regions where historical data regarding this process are scarce or absent.     

Recent theoretical results on coronal heating

The scenario of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence in connection with coronal active regions has been actively investigated in recent years. According to this viewpoint, a turbulent regime is driven by footpoint motions and the incoming energy is efficiently transferred to small scales due to a direct energy cascade. The development of fine scales to enhance the dissipation of either waves or DC currents is therefore a natural outcome of turbulent models. Numerical integrations of the reduced magnetohydrodynamic equations are performed to simulate the dynamics of coronal loops driven at their bases by footpoint motions. These simulations show that a stationary turbulent regime is reached after a few photospheric times, displaying a broadband power spectrum and a dissipation rate consistent with the energy loss rates of the plasma confined in these loops. Also, the functional dependence of the stationary heating rate with the physical parameters of the problem is obtained, which might be useful for an observational test of this theoretical framework.     

Two-dimensional modeling of fine sediment transport with mixed sediment and consolidation: Application to the Gironde Estuary,France

In order to optimize ship navigation in the macrotidal Gironde Estuary, a recent project funded by the port of Bordeaux aims at better understand and forecast hydrodynamic and fine sediment transport within the estuary. In the framework of this project, a two-dimensional hydro-sedimentary model is built. The model includes hydrodynamic forcings, mixed-sediment transport, and consolidation processes. The harmonic analysis of the astronomical tides reveals a strong distortion of the tidal wave inducing the growth of overtide constituents and the non-significant effect of tide-surge interactions in annual-scale prediction. Depending on hydrological conditions, river discharge can considerably alter the model accuracy due to the migration of the turbidity maximum zone modifying the bottom roughness. Comparison with measurements shows the ability of the model to reproduce suspended-sediment concentrations in the central Estuary. Sensitivity of the model to sediment features has also been discussed in regard of suspended-sediment concentrations and fluid mud deposits. The model will be further coupled with ship squat predictions and a morphodynamic model.     

Trends in the frequency of synoptic types in central-southern Chile in the period 1961–2012 using the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification

Atmospheric circulation patterns in southern Chile (42° 30′ S) were studied in order to determine and analyse the most characteristic synoptic types and their recent trends, as well as to gain an understanding of how they are associated with low-frequency variability patterns. According to the Jenkinson and Collison (J&C) classification method, a 16-point grid of sea-level pressure data was employed. The findings reveal that some synoptic types show statistically significant trends with a 95% confidence level, positively for anticyclonic westerly hybrids (AW) and advective types for third and fourth quadrant wind flows (W, NW, and N) and negatively for SW and cyclonic hybrids (CS and CSW). A model has been constructed of the linear regression of some weather types with teleconnections that most affect Chile: the undetermined types (U), AW were associated with El Niño or the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), whereas the cyclonic northerly and cyclonic northeasterly types (CN and CNE) were associated with La Niña or cool phase of the PDO. The weather types associated with Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in its positive phase are anticyclonic northerly and northeasterly and northerly advection types, while in its negative phase are cyclonic southwesterly and advection types.     

Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical rainforest

Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO₂ sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO₂ fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America.     

Mid‐Holocene vegetation dynamics in the Tejo River estuary based on palaeobotanical records from Ponta da Passadeira (Barreiro–Setúbal,Portugal)

This paper presents the results of pollen and charcoal analyses carried out in the sedimentary formation of Ponta da Passadeira, south of the Tejo River estuary, Portugal. The data provide information regarding the evolution of the coastline and ecosystem of the estuary during the mid and late Holocene. The study focuses on a group of upright woody fossilized tree remains that, together with those identified earlier by García‐Amorena et al. (2007), form part of the fossil forest of Ponta da Passadeira. Eight remains were identified as Pinus pinaster, four as Pinus pinea and one as Pinus sp. Two specimens of these species were dated to 6523 and 5805 cal. a BP. Pollen analysis was undertaken in a clay layer located at the same point as the fossil forest, which is currently below sea level; the base of the clay layer was dated to 4906 cal. a BP. The pollen spectra reflect the dynamics of the vegetation that grew on this deposit, whereas the sporopollinic input masks the contribution of the regional vegetation. Wood charcoal remains recovered at an adjacent Final Neolithic settlement were also analysed, and a Pinus sp. specimen was radiocarbon dated to 5050 cal. a BP. The correlation amongst the three records provides key ecological markers for the understanding of the evolution of coastline ecosystems, and helps to clarify and understand the Holocene sea rise on the Atlantic seaboard of Iberia. The geographical location of Ponta da Passadeira is strategic because it enables a more clear definition of the configuration of landscapes that show an inflection point in this area of central Portugal.     

Habitat Use by Nekton along a Stream-Order Gradient in a Louisiana Estuary

We examined patterns of habitat use by fishes and decapod crustaceans in a seemingly pristine tidal stream system that drains into southeastern coastal Louisiana, northern Gulf of Mexico. The study area centered on a relatively unaltered mesohaline saltmarsh nested within more heavily degraded conditions. Monthly sampling (February–November 2004) stratified along a stream-order gradient examined changes in nekton abundance, species richness, and community structure. Analyses were based on a microhabitat approach used to characterize nekton responses to spatial gradients of water depth, temperature, dissolved oxygen, salinity, turbidity, bottom slope, stream width, and distance to mouth. Thirty taxa were identified from 3,757 individuals collected in 82 seine samples. Seven fishes and three decapods constituted >95% of the community structure. Analyses detected the effects of stream order on fish community structure and associated environmental variables. Spatial differences of environmental variables across stream order were attributed to the geomorphology and hydrology of the study area. A factor analysis resolved eight environmental variables into four orthogonal axes that explained 80% of environmental variation. We interpreted factor 1 as a stream-order axis, factor 2 as a morphological axis, factor 3 as a seasonal axis, and factor 4 as a salinity axis. Differences in use of four-dimensional factor space by dominant species reflected habitat selection and species residency status.     

Mapping conservation priorities and connectivity pathways under climate change for tropical ecosystems

Climate change and land use conversion are global threats to biodiversity. Protected areas and biological corridors have been historically implemented as biodiversity conservation measures and suggested as tools within planning frameworks to respond to climate change. However, few applications to national protected areas systems considering climate change in tropical countries exist. Our goal is to define new priority areas for biodiversity conservation and biological corridors within an existing protected areas network. We aim at preserving samples of all biodiversity under climate change and facilitate species dispersal to reduce the vulnerability of biodiversity. The analysis was based on a three step strategy: i) protect representative samples of various levels of terrestrial biodiversity across protected area systems given future redistributions under climate change, ii) identify and protect areas with reduced climate velocities where populations could persist for relatively longer periods, and iii) ensure species dispersal between conservation areas through climatic connectivity pathways. The study was integrated into a participatory planning approach for biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica. Results showed that there should be an increase of 11 % and 5 % on new conservation areas and biological corridors respectively. Our approach integrates climate change into the design of a network of protected areas for tropical ecosystems and can be applied to other biodiversity rich areas to reduce the vulnerability of biodiversity to global warming.     

Configuring the neighbourhood effect in irregular cellular automata based models

Cellular automata (CA) models have been widely employed to simulate urban growth and land use change. In order to represent urban space more realistically, new approaches to CA models have explored the use of vector data instead of traditional regular grids. However, the use of irregular CA-based models brings new challenges as well as opportunities. The most strongly affected factor when using an irregular space is neighbourhood. Although neighbourhood definition in an irregular environment has been reported in the literature, the question of how to model the neighbourhood effect remains largely unexplored. In order to shed light on this question, this paper proposed the use of spatial metrics to characterise and measure the neighbourhood effect in irregular CA-based models. These metrics, originally developed for raster environments, namely the enrichment factor and the neighbourhood index, were adapted and applied in the irregular space employed by the model. Using the results of these metrics, distance-decay functions were calculated to reproduce the push-and-pull effect between the simulated land uses. The outcomes of a total of 55 simulations (5 sets of different distance functions and 11 different neighbourhood definition distances) were compared with observed changes in the study area during the calibration period. Our results demonstrate that the proposed methodology improves the outcomes of the urban growth simulation model tested and could be applied to other irregular CA-based models.