Towards fully data driven ground-motion prediction models for Europe

We have used the Artificial Neural Network method (ANN) for the derivation of physically sound, easy-to-handle, predictive ground-motion models from a subset of the Reference database for Seismic ground-motion prediction in Europe (RESORCE). Only shallow earthquakes (depth smaller than 25 km) and recordings corresponding to stations with measured $V_{s30}$ properties have been selected. Five input parameters were selected: the moment magnitude $M_{W}$ , the Joyner–Boore distance $R_{JB}$ , the focal mechanism, the hypocentral depth, and the site proxy $V_{S30}$ . A feed-forward ANN type is used, with one 5-neuron hidden layer, and an output layer grouping all the considered ground motion parameters, i.e., peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and 5 %-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at 62 periods from 0.01 to 4 s. A procedure similar to the random-effects approach was developed to provide between and within event standard deviations. The total standard deviation ( $\sigma $ ) varies between 0.298 and 0.378 (log $_{10}$ unit) depending on the period, with between-event and within-event variabilities in the range 0.149–0.190 and 0.258–0.327, respectively. Those values prove comparable to those of conventional GMPEs. Despite the absence of any a priori assumption on the functional dependence, our results exhibit a number of physically sound features: magnitude scaling of the distance dependency, near-fault saturation distance increasing with magnitude, amplification on soft soils and even indications for nonlinear effects in softer soils.     

Ambient noise energy bursts observation and modeling: Trapping of harmonic structure-soil induced–waves in a topmost sedimentary layer

We study the nature of energy bursts that appeared in the frequency range 3–5 Hz in ambient seismic noise recorded in the Grenoble basin (French Alps) during a seismological array experiment. A close agreement is found between the identified azimuths of such noise bursts with the location of an industrial chimney. In-situ measurements of the chimney dynamic characteristics show a coincidence between the frequency of the first harmonic mode of the chimney and the fundamental frequency of a thin surficial layer that overlay the deep sediment fill. The interaction between the chimney and the surficial layer is then numerically simulated using simple impedance models and two soil profiles. Simulations exhibit a satisfactory agreement with observations and suggest that energy bursts result of inertial structure-soil interaction favored by resonance effects between the first harmonic mode of the structure and the fundamental frequency of the topmost layer.     

Geochemical evidence for a large methane release during the last deglaciation from Marmara Sea sediments

Recent methane inventories have revealed the potential impact of gas hydrates on the global carbon cycle, and hence in climate change (Milkov, 2004). However, only a few studies have traced methane release in the geologic record. Here, we show geochemical evidence for a large scale methane release at mid-latitudes during the last deglaciation. The Sea of Marmara, an enclosed sea between the Mediterranean and Black Seas, is located in a tectonically active basin with gas hydrate expulsion and the formation of shallow gas hydrates. Since depths in the basin are shallower than 1100 m, future global temperatures are expected to have a great influence in destabilizing methane clathrates. Among the suite of biomarkers, we have focused on diplopterol and diploptene profiles in core MD012430, retrieved from the central basin in the Marmara Sea. Our results indicate that during the last 15,000 years, hopanoids showed important concentration variations with a pronounced peak during the deglaciation.The lack of a relationship between diplopterol/diploptene and phytoplanktonic biomarker concentrations, as well as a depleted isotopic composition, have linked the hopanoid maxima to methanotrophic activity, suggesting that an intense methane release occurred at the onset of deglaciation in the Marmara Sea. The vulnerability of the hydrate stability zone to changes in temperature and pressure under this range of shallow water depths, as well as the relative timing of the hopanoid maxima and sea surface temperature rise, points to thermal destabilization of hydrates as a trigger for methane release in the water column.