First Data on the Isotopic Age of Zircons from Rocks of the Roseta Ultramafic Massif,Southern Margin of the São Francisco Craton (Brazil)

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of isotope U–Pb dating of zircons from lherzolite and vein olivine orthopyroxenite composing the Roseta ultramafic massif are presented. The zircons...     

The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Superposition of gold mineralisation on pre‐existing carbonate alteration: Structural evidence from the Mulgarrie gold deposit,Yilgarn Craton

Carbonate alteration at the Mulgarrie gold mine in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia, is represented by porphyroblasts, veins and pervasive, texturally destructive, carbonatisation. Two foliations, S_1M and S_2M, were produced by two separate deformation events at the mine‐scale, D_1M and D_2M. D_1M and D_2M both occurred in response to regional D₂ tectonism. Carbonate alteration was the product of two separate episodes of fluid ingress: the earlier produced magnesite and the latter Fe‐dolomite. Both periods of carbonate alteration occurred pre‐ to early syn‐D_2M, when mafic to ultramafic komatiitic rocks reacted with fluids that moved along regional faults and pre‐date the alteration associated with regional peak metamorphism. Gold at Mulgarrie overprints pre‐ and late syn‐D₂ quartz veins in zones of massive carbonate alteration, suggesting it has a late‐ to post‐D₂ timing. This late timing agrees with the generally accepted syn‐D₃ (and younger) age for gold mineralisation in the Eastern Goldfields. We suggest that carbonate alteration at Mulgarrie is not a product of the hydrothermal event responsible for the gold mineralisation. Rather, the different relative timing of magnesite, Fe‐dolomite and gold indicates there were two carbonate‐producing fluid systems and a fluid transporting the gold overprinted these. Similarly, early carbonate alteration may play a role in localising auriferous vein deposits throughout the Yilgarn and other Archaean cratons.     

Modelling changes in the epidemic range of Southern Pine Beetle using temperature and objective moisture indicators

Summary This report details as statistical model that relates changes in areal coverage of the Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.) to a multivariate combination of temperature and moisture status indices. It is applicable to larger geographic areas than our previous work (Michaels 1984). Performance in a true test (predictive) mode detected the algebraic sign of major coverage changes in a highly significant fashion. The results are purely correlative, rather than causative.This report describes a test-proven tool that can be used by planners to determine whether coverage will change, based upon easily accessed climatic data. An example of its application is provided.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Untersuchung führt ein statistisches Modell aus, welches das flächenmäßige Auftreten vonDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. mit einer Kombination von Temperaturund Feuchteverhältnisindikatoren in Verbindung bringt. Es kann für größere Gebiete verwendet werden als ein früher vorgestelltes (Michaels 1984). Die Anwendung zur Vorhersage zeigte in einem Test gute Übereinstimmung mit der tatsächlich aufgetretenen Richtung der Veränderung in der Verbreitung des Käfers. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Korrelationen, keine Kausalitäten auf.Es wird also ein Werkzeug für den Planer vorgestellt, mit dem die Verbreitungsänderung mit Hilfe leicht zugänglicher klimatologischer Daten bestimmt werden kann. Ein Anwendungsbeispiel wird näher ausgeführt.

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With 5 Figures     

Meteorological excitation of the annual polar motion

Summary. Numerous studies have indicated that the annual term in the polar motion cannot be explained in any detail by meteorological/hydrological excitation and no reasonable alternative excitations have been put forward. Part of the problem has been that the hydrostatic adjustment of the oceans to the atmospheric pressure changes has traditionally been computed using the inverse barometer approach. This approach does not properly model the gravitational interaction between the atmosphere and oceans, and the inverse barometer theory is modified in this paper to account for this properly. The information necessary to compute the ocean tide and polar excitation caused by any change in the atmospheric pressure pattern is presented. The results of the application of this theory to two global atmospheric pressure data sets are examined and compared to results of other workers.
It is concluded that the atmosphere is observed well enough to answer the question of the annual excitation of polar motion and it is argued that the ground water excitation is the component with the largest error and remains the chief obstacle to the successful solution of this problem.     

Tsunamis as geological agents

When a tsunami wave series approaches and interacts with a coast, the consequent passage shorewards of great volumes of water and their invasion of the land, especially within bays and up river valleys, results in the disturbance of existing sediment and the removal seawards of land debris and coastal and shallow‐water marine sediments. Tsunami action builds up sequences of peculiar sediments in shallow water; it at least assists in the formation and maintenance of submarine canyons and, through them, produces turbidity currents of a particularly powerful kind. Tsunami action may explain many puzzling sedimentary phenomena, for example, sudden and drastic changes in near‐shore bathymetry; the formation of chaotic sediments such as some paraconglomerates and edgewise conglomerates. It offers solutions to problems arising from the study of turbiditic sequences, both modern and ancient.     

X-ray transient sources

The galactic distribution and physical nature of X-ray transient sources is investigated. Two types of transients are considered. The observational data on 41 X-ray transient sources are given, and the average parameters of hard and soft X-ray transients are estimated.     

Observation of Precipitating Systems over Complex Orography with Meteorological Doppler Radars: A Feasibility Study

Summary  This paper concerns the use of airborne or ground-based Doppler radars to observe precipitating systems over complex orography. As nearly all of the previous experiments involving Doppler radars were conducted over flat surfaces over the continents or the oceans, new techniques are needed firstly to separate ground clutter from meteorological signal and, in the case of airborne Doppler observations, to deduce navigational errors. Secondly, it is necessary to take the atmospheric circulation induced by orography into account in the three-dimensional wind field analysis. Variational techniques are presented to solve these problems. The proposed methods are tested with simulated ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for analytic flows over analytic terrains and for numerically simulated wind and reflectivity fields for the Brig event (22 September 1993) of heavy precipitation over the southern flank of the Alps (Cosma and Richard, 1998), and with actual airborne Doppler data relative to weak snow showers over the Rocky Mountains on 12 March 1995. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 1, 1999