Problems of modeling climate and climate change

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.     

The Huelva (Spain) Tsunami-Ready Station and Its Interaction with Storm Emma (March 2018)

Abstract

The sea level station operating since 1996 at Mazagón (Huelva, Spain) has been progressively upgraded to fit tsunami warning requirements, due to its location in one of the main regions at risk. Its radar water level sensor was complemented in 2017, with the addition of a pressure sensor. The performance of both sea level sensors and their response to sea level oscillations, at different frequencies, is assessed. Particular emphasis is put on the effect of extreme events, such as Storm Emma, when alternative methods to obtain 1-min data are tested, in contrast to the one based on arithmetic means. The overall differences are small, for the whole period of study (centered-root-mean-square-error below 1?cm, for 5-min, and hourly data; similar tidal parameters and sea level oscillations with periods between 30?s and 5?min). However, during Storm Emma, the pressure sensor presents sensibly lower readings than the radar, with the centered-root-mean-square-error rising to 80?mm on the March 2^nd 2018. A new method to compute 1-min data, based on medians, reduced this value to 10?mm for the same day.     

Robust and adaptive path following for underactuated autonomous underwater vehicles

This paper proposes a nonlinear robust adaptive control strategy to force a six degrees of freedom underactuated underwater vehicle with only four actuators to follow a predefined path at a desired speed despite of the presence of environmental disturbances and vehicle’s unknown physical parameters. The proposed controller is designed using Lyapunov’s direct method, the popular backstepping and parameter projection techniques. The closed loop path following errors can be made arbitrarily small. Interestingly, it is shown that our developed control strategy is easily extendible to situations of practical importance such as parking and point-to-point navigation. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

Susceptibility to genetic damage and cell types in Mediterranean mussels

Micronucleus (MN) frequency is generally accepted as a marker of chromosomal damage and has been studied in a variety of cells and species. In previous work, we detected significant dose-related MN increases in the epithelial-like gill cells and agranular haemocytes of Mytilus galloprovincialis treated with benzo[a]pyrene, a well-known mutagenic pollutant. In addition, we have studied micronuclei and other nuclear abnormalities in mussels collected from the Venice lagoon (Italy). Frequency changes, possibly related to genotoxic/toxic stress, in both granular and micronucleated cells from gills and haemolymph, were detected. Environmental data suggest the effect of genotoxic pollutants and the importance of cell replication in the interpretation of micronucleus frequencies.     

Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of jack-up platforms

This paper is concerned with the models appropriate for the dynamic assessment of jack-ups, concentrating particularly on the long-term response due to random ocean waves and on work-hardening plasticity models used for spud-can response. A methodology for scaling of short-term statistics, calculated using a Constrained NewWave technique, is shown in a numerical experiment for an example jack-up and central North Sea location. The difference in long-term extreme response statistics due to various footing assumptions is emphasised. Results for two environmental load conditions are described (one excluding and one including wind and current effects) and the role of sea-state severity in the variation of short-term extreme response statistics is also highlighted.     

Prediction of hydrodynamic loading on a mini TLP with free surface effects

This paper describes the extension of a fluid-flow simulations method to capture the free surface evolution around a full-scale Tension Leg Platform (TLP). The focus is on the prediction of the resulting hydrodynamic loading on the various elements of the TLP in turbulent flow conditions and, in particular, on quantifying the effects of the free surface distortion on this loading. The basic method uses finite-volume techniques to discretize the differential equations governing conservation of mass and momentum in three dimensions. The time-averaged forms of the equations are used, and the effects of turbulence are accounted for by using a two-equation, eddy-viscosity closure. The method is extended here via the incorporation of surface-tracking algorithm on a moving grid to predict the free-surface shape. The algorithm was checked against experimental measurements from two benchmark flows: the flow over a submerged semi-circular cylinder and the flow around a floating parabolic hull. Predictions of forces on a model TLP were then obtained both with and without allowing for the deformation of the free surface. The results suggest that the free surface effects on the hydrodynamic loads are small for the values of Froude number typically encountered in offshore engineering practice.     

Ultimate strength of ship hulls under torsion

For a ship hull with large deck openings such as container vessels and some large bulk carriers, the analysis of warping stresses and hatch opening deformations is an essential part of ship structural analyses. It is thus of importance to better understand the ultimate torsional strength characteristics of ships with large hatch openings. The primary aim of the present study is to investigate the ultimate strength characteristics of ship hulls with large hatch openings under torsion. Axial (warping) as well as shear stresses are normally developed for thin-walled beams with open cross sections subjected to torsion. A procedure for calculating these stresses is briefly described. As an illustrative example, the distribution and magnitude of warping and shear stresses for a typical container vessel hull cross section under unit torsion is calculated by the procedure. By theoretical and numerical analyses, it is shown that the influence of torsion induced warping stresses on the ultimate hull girder bending strength is small for ductile hull materials while torsion induced shear stresses will of course reduce the ship hull ultimate bending moment.