An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.     

Deep-seated gravitational slope deformations and their influence on consequent mass movements (case studies from the highest part of the Czech Carpathians)

Gravitational spreading of mountain ridges displays primary disequilibrium of flysch mountain areas of the Czech Carpathians. The progression of various types of mass movements is a product of long-term ridge disintegration and is predisposed by the geological structure of the area and the upper Tertiary-Quaternary morphogenesis of the mountain area. Deep-seated slope deformations are spatially interconnected by the occurrence of some other types of slope deformations (e.g. debris flows, debris slides, slumps, rock avalanches, etc.), which pose a considerable risk for the existence of human society. An important causative factor in these dynamically developing hazardous processes is, among other factors, the way in which land has been used in the last three centuries. Therefore, the occurrence of various types of slope deformations is studied in terms of their relation to deep-seated gravitational deformations and in terms of other limiting factors (structural geological, morphological and climatic factors, manmade impacts, etc.). The paper presents several case studies of slope deformations (Velká Čantoryje Mt, Lysá hora Mt, Ropice Mt and Smrk Mt) in the area of the Outer Carpathians within the territory of the Czech Republic and also adverts to some consequences in terms of the socioeconomic structure of the landscape.     

The effect of naturally acidified irrigation water on agricultural volcanic soils. The case of Asembagus, Java, Indonesia

Acid water from the Banyuputih river (pH  3.5) is used for the irrigation of agricultural land in the Asembagus coastal area (East Java, Indonesia), with harmful consequences for rice yields. The river water has an unusual composition which is caused by seepage from the acidic Kawah Ijen crater lake into the river. This unique irrigation setting allows the study of soil acidification in situ. This paper assesses the effects of volcanogenically contaminated irrigation water on the chemical properties of the agricultural soils.The changes in soil properties were evaluated by comparing samples taken from the topsoil and sub-soil (1–3 m depth) from areas irrigated with acid water and areas irrigated with neutral water. The field survey thus resulted in four soil categories. Bulk soil composition, organic matter content, moisture content and particle size distribution were determined. Reactive phases were quantified with the selective extractions 1 M KCl, 0.1 M Na-pyrophosphate and 0.2 M acid ammonium oxalate (AAO).By comparing the four soil categories it is shown that the use of the naturally polluted irrigation water has had a large influence on the chemical composition of the topsoil. The composition of the soil solution has changed over the entire investigated soil profile. Furthermore the acid irrigation water has strongly modified the composition of the reactive phases, extracted as KCl, pyrophosphate, and AAO extractable elements, and also the bulk soil composition has been significantly modified. Overall this has resulted in the net dissolution of some elements and the net precipitation of others. The changes in the reactive phases and bulk soil composition are only apparent in the topsoil (0–20 cm) but not in the deeper soil.     

Geostatistical estimation of chemical contamination in stream sediments: The case study of Vale das Gatas mine (northern Portugal)

Based on an environmental geochemistry case study carried out in the neighbourhood of a W–Sn abandoned mine, the pollution in stream sediments was modelled through a Global Contamination Index. Such an index permits one to summarize the combination of deleterious elements in a single variable, obtained by the projection of samples onto the first axis of a PCASD (Principal Components Analysis of Standardized Data) applied to the entire n × p matrix containing the available concentrations of p = 16 elements in the set of n = 220 collected samples.In order to provide a sound basis for a coherent planning of the remediation process which will be put in operation in the affected area, it is necessary to balance the costs of reclaiming with the probabilities of exceeding the upper limits accepted for concentrations of environmentally harmful elements in sediments. Given these limits, they are back-transformed in the index values, providing a practical threshold between ‘clean’ and ‘contaminated’ samples. On the other hand, the minimum dimension of the cell to be reclaimed is restrained by the selected remediation process to be applied in the affected area. Hence, to meet the constraints of such a remediation process, it is required to estimate the probabilities of exceeding the index threshold in technologically meaningful sub-areas. For this end, the Indicator Block Kriging technique was applied, producing a series of maps where sub-areas to be reclaimed can be spotted for different probability levels. These maps, on which the decision making remediation agency can rely for its cost-benefit analysis, take into account both the spatial structure of ‘clean’ vs. ‘contaminated’ samples and the constraints of the reclaiming process.     

Mineralogy and geochemistry of El Dorado epithermal gold deposit, El Sauce district, central-northern Chile

Summary The El Dorado Au-Cu deposit is located in an extensive intra-caldera zone of hydrothermal alteration affecting Upper Cretaceous andesites of the Los Elquinos Formation at La Serena (≈ 29°47′S Lat., 70°43′W Long., Chile). Quartz-sulfide veins of economic potential are hosted by N25W and N20E fault structures associated with quartz-illite alteration (+supergene kaolinite). The main ore minerals in the deposit are pyrite, chalcopyrite ± fahlore (As/(As + Sb): 0.06−0.98), with electrum, sphalerite, galena, bournonite-seligmanite (As/(As + Sb): 0.21−0.31), marcasite, pyrrhotite being accessory phases. Electrum, with an Ag content between 32 and 37 at.%, occurs interstitial to pyrite aggregates or along pyrite fractures. Pyrite commonly exhibits chemical zonation with some zones up to 1.96 at.% As. Electron probe microanalyses of pyrite indicate that As-rich zones do not exhibit detectable Au values. Fluid inclusion microthermometry shows homogenization temperatures between 130 and 352 °C and salinities between 1.6 and 6.9 wt.% NaCl eq. Isotope data for quartz, ankerite and phyllosilicates and estimated temperatures show that δ¹⁸O and δD for the hydrothermal fluids were between 3 and 10‰ and between −95 and −75‰, respectively. These results suggest the mineralizing fluids were a mixture of meteoric and magmatic waters. An epithermal intermediate-sulfidation model is proposed for the formation of the El Dorado deposit. Author’s present address: J. Carrillo-Rosúa, Dpto. de Didáctica de las Ciencias Experimentales, Universidad de Granada, Campus de Cartuja, 18071, Granada, Spain     

Methodology of hydrogeological characterization of deep carbonate aquifers as potential reservoirs of groundwater. Case of study: the Jurassic aquifer of <Emphasis Type="Italic">El Maestrazgo</Emphasis> (Castellón,Spain)

A methodology for the characterization of deep carbonate aquifers has been developed and applied to El Maestrazgo Jurassic aquifer in Castellón, Spain. Characterization of these aquifer formations, located at more than 300 m deep, consisted of a previous phase of compilation, analysis and synthesis of the existing information about the area, followed by a coordinated combination of different speciality studies: geology, stratigraphy, structural analysis, hydrogeology, hydrochemistry, geophysics and remote sensing. Geological studies included geological mapping, definition of stratigraphical units and facies and structural analysis. The aim of the hydrogeology study was to define aquifer formations, recharge area, aquifer points inventory and groundwater flow directions for the establishment of piezometric and water quality observation nets. Special techniques were applied, like thermal infrared aerial images and the evaluation of submarine groundwater discharge by means of natural radium isotopes. Hydrochemical techniques, including majority elements characterization and stable isotopes (¹⁸O, ²H and ³H) determination, allowed classifying hydrochemical facies and establishing a renewal pattern for water within the system. Geophysics was useful in determining the aquifer geometry, the features of the basement and the petrophysical characteristics of the geological formations. Preliminary results show an important tectonic complexity and the possibilities for groundwater uses in the area of study.     

Spatial Variability of Rock Depth in Bangalore Using Geostatistical, Neural Network and Support Vector Machine Models

Geospatial technology is increasing in demand for many applications in geosciences. Spatial variability of the bed/hard rock is vital for many applications in geotechnical and earthquake engineering problems such as design of deep foundations, site amplification, ground response studies, liquefaction, microzonation etc. In this paper, reduced level of rock at Bangalore, India is arrived from the 652 boreholes data in the area covering 220 km². In the context of prediction of reduced level of rock in the subsurface of Bangalore and to study the spatial variability of the rock depth, Geostatistical model based on Ordinary Kriging technique, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models have been developed. In Ordinary Kriging, the knowledge of the semi-variogram of the reduced level of rock from 652 points in Bangalore is used to predict the reduced level of rock at any point in the subsurface of the Bangalore, where field measurements are not available. A new type of cross-validation analysis developed proves the robustness of the Ordinary Kriging model. ANN model based on multi layer perceptrons (MLPs) that are trained with Levenberg–Marquardt backpropagation algorithm has been adopted to train the model with 90% of the data available. The SVM is a novel type of learning machine based on statistical learning theory, uses regression technique by introducing loss function has been used to predict the reduced level of rock from a large set of data. In this study, a comparative study of three numerical models to predict reduced level of rock has been presented and discussed.     

SOME EXPERIMENTS CONCERNING THE PRIMARY SEISMIC PULSE*

Recordings were made with three types of detector of the primary compressional (P) and shear (S) wave pulses generated by explosions in boreholes. Charge weights varied from 0.08 kg to 9.5 kg and detector distances varied from about 3 m to about 80 m. Scaling by the simple factor W^1/3 where W is the charge weight, enabled observations from different sized charges to be fitted to a single expression. Experiments were carried out in the Bunter sandstone and the London clay and both fluid and solid tamping were used. This variation in tamping had no significant effect on the P-waves but it may have affected the generation of SV-waves. In both media the P-wave energy carried at 30 m from the shot by frequencies less than 100 Hz decreased rapidly with depth and was usually 1–2 % of the available chemical energy for a shot depth of 15 m. The S-wave energy was much less than this, but was highly directional. The P-wave pulse had the appearance of a damped sinusoid in very good agreement with the predictions of the ‘equivalent radiator’ hypothesis. However, the surface of this radiator should be identified not with the blown cavity but with the surface at which the tensile stresses associated with the stress wave become less than the tensile strength of the rock. The predominant frequency for a 1 kg charge at a depth of 15 m was 24 Hz in the clay and 52 Hz in the sandstone. In these and similar media, therefore, an effort should be made to keep individual charges less than 1 kg in reflection shooting and less than 10 kg in refraction shooting. The value of Q was about 50 in clay and about 25 in the sandstone. These estimates are rather uncertain because of the small distances over which the pulses were observed. The Z-transforms of the sampled pulses indicated that they were all of minimum phase, or very near to it.