Long-term variability of temperature and precipitation in the Czech Lands: an attribution analysis

Among the key problems associated with the study of climate variability and its evolution are identification of the factors responsible for observed changes and quantification of their effects. Here, correlation and regression analysis are employed to detect the imprints of selected natural forcings (solar and volcanic activity) and anthropogenic influences (amounts of greenhouse gases—GHGs—and atmospheric aerosols), as well as prominent climatic oscillations (Southern Oscillation—SO, North Atlantic Oscillation—NAO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation—AMO) in the Czech annual and monthly temperature and precipitation series for the 1866–2010 period. We show that the long-term evolution of Czech temperature change is dominated by the influence of an increasing concentration of anthropogenic GHGs (explaining most of the observed warming), combined with substantially lower, and generally statistically insignificant, contributions from the sulphate aerosols (mild cooling) and variations in solar activity (mild warming), but with no distinct imprint from major volcanic eruptions. A significant portion of the observed short-term temperature variability can be linked to the influence of NAO. The contributions from SO and AMO are substantially weaker in magnitude. Aside from NAO, no major influence from the explanatory variables was found in the precipitation series. Nonlinear forms of regression were used to test for nonlinear interactions between the predictors and temperature/precipitation; the nonlinearities disclosed were, however, very weak, or not detectable at all. In addition to the outcomes of the attribution analysis for the Czech series, results for European and global land temperatures are also shown and discussed.     

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.     

Verification of the shallow seismic crustal structure of the western Krušné Hory crystalline unit, Czech Republic

We analyze refraction measurements along a short profile in western Kru?né hory crystalline unit. The profile passed close to the seismically active zone of Nový Kostel. The measurements were carried out to distances of about 15 km using quarry blasts near the village of Horní Rozmy?l, located at the eastern margin of the crystalline unit. Smoothed P-wave travel times were interpreted using the Wiechert-Herglotz method, which yielded a 1-D velocity model of the shallow crustal structure of the crystalline unit down to a depth of 1.7 km. The P-wave velocity of the model increases from about 4.0 km/s at the surface to 5.9 km/s at a depth of 1.7 km. The superficial velocities of our model are somewhat higher than the superficial velocities of the model that is routinely used for earthquake location in the region.     

Local quasigeoid model creation from astrogeodetic measurements

This article describes the process of creation and testing of a local quasigeoid model using the astrogeodetic method known as astronomical levelling. The process used here was based on astronomical levelling principles combined with the least square adjustment in a triangular network and a common method of surface generation. Using this method, the authors have created a quasigeoid model of a small portion of the city of Brno. This model covers an area of approximately 1 × 2 km and is based on the astronomically determined vertical deflection at 11 stations. The average distance between the astrogeodetic stations was 500 m, which is an unusually high density (5.5 stations per km²). This high geo-spatial data density input made it possible to generate a quasigeoid model of height difference precision at mm-level over few km. Tests described in this article document the suitability of our methods for creating local quasigeoid models of high precision and resolution. Employing the least square adjustment in a planar network offers the possibility to easily compute standard deviations of both input and result values. This is a great advantage in comparison with more common astrogeodetic quasigeoid profiles, which are not suitable for simple adjustment and require more complex methods to be used for evaluation of their precision. The model described here serves the authors as a technological example, from which they learn more about the potential of the astrogeodetic method. Astrogeodetic models of a much greater extent are planned to be used for validation purposes of models generated by other independent methods (gravimetric, satellite, combined, etc.).     

Growth of accretionary wedges and pulsed ophiolitic mélange formation by successive subduction of trench‐parallel volcanic elevations

Fault‐bounded coherent belts alternating with belts of mélanges are common in accretionary wedges and are usually interpreted as a result of imbrication along subduction zone megathrusts. Using the Neoproterozoic/early Cambrian Blovice accretionary complex (BAC), Bohemian Massif, as a case example, we present a new model for the origin of alternating belts through the repetition of several cycles of (1) offscraping and deformation of trench‐fill sediments to form the coherent units, interrupted by (2) arrival and subduction of linear, trench‐parallel volcanic elevations. The latter process leads to an increase in the wedge taper, triggering mass‐wasting and formation of olistostromes. At the same time, ophiolitic mélanges form by disruption of an upper part of the volcanic ridge and incorporation of the disrupted ocean‐floor succession into the olistostromes. Specifically, the BAC represents a complete section across an accretionary wedge and records three such major pulses of ophiolitic mélange formation through subduction of an outboard back‐arc basin.     

Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections: The Drag-Based Model

We present the “Drag-Based Model” (DBM) of heliospheric propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The DBM is based on the hypothesis that the driving Lorentz force, which launches a CME, ceases in the upper corona and that beyond a certain distance the dynamics becomes governed solely by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. In particular, we consider the option where the drag acceleration has a quadratic dependence on the ICME relative speed, which is expected in a collisionless environment, where the drag is caused primarily by emission of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. In this paper we present the simplest version of DBM, where the equation of motion can be solved analytically, providing explicit solutions for the Sun–Earth ICME transit time and impact speed. This offers easy handling and straightforward application to real-time space-weather forecasting. Beside presenting the model itself, we perform an analysis of DBM performances, applying a statistical and case-study approach, which provides insight into the advantages and drawbacks of DBM. Finally, we present a public, DBM-based, online forecast tool.     

Geochemical characteristics of the high- and low-Ti basaltic rocks from the uplifted shoulder of the Ohře (Eger) Rift,Western Bohemia

High-Ti melanephelinite (3.8–5.9 wt% TiO₂), medium-Ti (phono)tephrite (2.7–3.1 wt% TiO₂), and low-Ti olivine melanephelinite/basanite (1.9–2.3 wt.% TiO₂) are subordinate rock types in the central European Cenozoic Volcanic Province. A contrasting melanephelinite to (phono)tephrite series occurs in the Lou?ná–Oberwiesenthal Volcanic Centre (37–28 Ma) and also as satellite volcanic bodies (26–12 Ma) together with olivine melanephelinite/basanite (17–20 Ma) on the southwestern periphery of the Kru?né hory mountains (Erzgebirge). The volcanic rocks intrude the Variscan basement of the uplifted shoulder of the Oh?e/Eger Rift in the Kru?né hory mountains of the Bohemian Massif. Low Mg# (44–59) and Cr, Ni contents and enrichment of LILE, Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta, U, Th and LREE in the high-Ti melanephelinites contrast with the composition of primitive low-Ti olivine melanephelinites/basanites displaying high Mg# (63–74) and high contents of compatible elements. The high-Ti melanephelinites reveal a wide range in initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of ca. 0.7034–0.7038 and ε_Nd of 2.4–4.9. The low-Ti melanephelinites show an overlapping range of initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of ca. 0.7035–0.7036 and ε_Nd of 4.3–5.5. The large variation in initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios at similar ε_Nd values in those rock types is interpreted as evidence for melting of metasomatized lithospheric mantle sources comprising K-bearing phases with radiogenic Sr. Modification of the olivine-free alkali basaltic magmas by differentiation or crustal contamination could give rise to the medium-Ti (phono) tephrites. The initial isotope ratios of all samples are consistent with HIMU-mantle sources and contributions from lithospheric mantle. The olivine-free melanephelinitic rocks often contain alkali pyroxenite–ijolite xenoliths with initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of ca. 0.7036 and ε_Nd of 3.0. We interpret these xenoliths as samples of an intra-crustal alkali complex derived from similar mantle sources as those for the basaltic volcanic rocks.     

Dioritic intrusions of the Slavkovský les (Kaiserwald), Western Bohemia: their origin and significance in late Variscan granitoid magmatism

Mafic and intermediate intrusions occur in the Slavkovsky les as dykes, sills and minor tabular bodies emplaced in metamorphic rocks or enclosed in late Variscan granites near the SW contact of the Western Krušné hory/Erzgebirge granite pluton. They are similar in composition and textures to the redwitzites defined in NE Bavaria. Single zircon Pb-evaporation analyses constrain the age of a quartz monzodiorite at 323.4 ± 4.4 Ma and of a granodiorite at 326.1 ± 5.6 Ma. The P–T range of magma crystallization is estimated at ~1.4–2.2 kbar and ~730–870°C and it accords with a shallow intrusion level of late Variscan granites but provides lower crystallization temperatures compared to the Bavarian redwitzites. We explain the heterogeneous composition of dioritic intrusions in the Slavkovsky les by mixing between mafic and felsic magmas with a minor effect of fractional crystallization. Increased K, Ba, Rb, Sr and REE contents compared to tholeiitic basalts suggest that the parental mafic magma was probably produced by melting of a metasomatised mantle, the melts being close to lamprophyre or alkali basalt composition. Diorites and granodiorites originated from mixed magmas derived by addition of about 25–35 and 50 vol.%, respectively, of the acid end-member (granite) to lamprophyre or alkali-basalt magma. Our data stress an important role of mafic magmas in the origin of late Variscan granitoids in NW Bohemian Massif and emphasize the effect of mantle metasomatism on the origin of K-rich mafic igneous rocks.     

Magmatic erosion of the solidification front during reintrusion: the eastern margin of the Tuolumne batholith, Sierra Nevada, California

The Tuolumne batholith, Sierra Nevada, California, consists of several nested granitoid units and is an example of upper-crustal normally zoned intrusions. The two outermost units of the batholith are separated by a wide gradational contact in what is interpreted to represent a large magma chamber. In the Potter Point area near the eastern margin of the batholith, the gradational contact is cross-cut by a network of interconnected mafic–felsic sheets, which grade into zones of magmatic erosion by stoping where the host granodiorite between the sheets was entirely removed and replaced by younger enclave-rich quartz diorite. We interpret these features to record disruption of a steep solidification front, which migrated inwards from the eastern batholith margin and separated the mushy to solidified margin from the remaining active magma chamber. When intersecting the gradational contact, the solidification front started to break up via a network of tectonically driven fractures accompanied by simultaneous injection of localized magma pulses. The solidification front break-up is interpreted here as an initial stage of a “recycling” process, whereby older magma mush is disrupted and incorporated into younger magma batches, a process we propose to have been widespread along internal contacts in the Tuolumne magma chamber.