Precipitation in the Anatolian Peninsula: sensitivity to increased SSTs in the surrounding seas

Effects of the increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding seas of the Anatolian Peninsula on the precipitation it receives are investigated through sensitivity simulations using a state-of-the-art regional climate model, RegCM3. The sensitivity simulations involve 2-K increases to the SSTs of the Aegean, eastern Mediterranean and Black seas individually as well as collectively. All the simulations are integrated over a 10-year period between 1990 and 2000. The model simulations of this study indicate that the precipitation of the peninsula is sensitive to the variations of the SSTs of the surrounding seas. In general, increased SSTs lead to increases in the precipitation of the peninsula as well as that of the seas considered. The statistically significant increases at 95% confidence levels largely occur along the coastal areas of the peninsula that are in the downwind side of the seas. Significant increases do also take place in the interior areas of the peninsula, especially in the eastern Anatolia in winter. The simulations reveal that eastern Mediterranean Sea has the biggest potential to affect the precipitation in the peninsula. They also demonstrate that taking all three seas into account simultaneously enhances the effect of SSTs on the peninsula’s precipitation, and extends the areas with statistically significant increases.     

M5 model tree application in daily river flow forecasting in Sohu Stream, Turkey

This study investigate the potential of M5 model tree in predicting daily stream flows in Sohu river located within the municipal borders of Ankara, Turkey. The results of the M5 model tree was compared with support vector machines. Both modelling approaches were used to forecast up to 7-day ahead stream flow. A comparison of correlation coefficient and root mean square value indicates that M5 model tree approach works equally well to the SVM for same day discharge prediction. The M5 model tree also works well up to 7-day ahead discharge forecasting in comparison of SVM with this data set. An advantage of using M5 model tree approach is the availability of simple linear models to predict the discharge as well use of less computational time.     

Downscaled simulations of the ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3 global models for the eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region: evaluation of the reference period

The outputs of three GCMs, ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3, are downscaled for the eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region for the period 1961–1990 using a regional climate model, RegCM3, to assess the capability of these models in simulating the climatology of the region. In addition, the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data are also downscaled for the same period to display the performance of the regional climate model for the same region, which constitutes a relatively complex terrain and rich variety of climates. The gridded observational dataset of CRU is primarily used in the evaluation of the models, however, a regional dataset, which is based on a relatively dense gauging network, is also used to see how it affects the performance measures of the models. The reanalysis simulation indicates that RegCM3 is able to simulate the precipitation and surface temperature as well as the upper level fields reasonably well. However, it tends to overestimate the precipitation over the mountainous areas. All three GCM models are found to be highly skilled in simulating the winter precipitation and temperature in the region. The two models, ECHAM5 and HadCM3, are also good at simulating the summer precipitation and temperature, but the CCSM3 simulation generates dryer and warmer conditions than the observations for the whole region, which are most likely a result of the dryness in the upper levels of the original outputs. The use of the regional observational dataset does not necessarily improve the pattern correlations, but it yields better match between the modeled and observed precipitation in terms of variability and root-mean-square difference. It could be said that the outputs of these GCMs can be used in the climate change downscaling and impact assessment studies for the region, given that their strengths and weaknesses that are displayed in the present study are considered.     

Malibogazi groundwater dam: an alternative model for semi-arid regions of Turkey to store and save groundwater

In central Turkey, there are serious groundwater quality problems in the main river valleys and plains, and even in the lower parts of the secondary basins due to the underlying evaporitic geological formations. Groundwater quality improves towards the upstreams in the alluvium aquifers in most secondary valleys; however, groundwater potential decreases as well due to the reduced basin area, areal extent and thickness of the aquifers. The Malibogazi valley is situated to some 100 km north of Ankara. The dam constructed in the narrowest section of the valley has an average storage coefficient of 0.2 and the total and active storage capacities of 110,000 and 55,000 m³, respectively. The 20-m-thick aquifer extends for 6–7 km till the dam site within valley with an average width of 50–70 m. It mostly comprises sandy–gravely alluvial deposits. Malibogazi groundwater dam is a valve-controlled gravity flow dam. When the valves are opened, the water from the aquifer reservoir flows by gravity through supply pipe to the main irrigation channel, but when the valves are closed the water is stored in the aquifer and groundwater level begins to rise. Average groundwater discharge was about 20 l/s in 2005–2006 irrigation period. In this period, groundwater levels were about 2 m higher compared to the groundwater levels in the same seasons before the construction of the groundwater dam. Because the dam is of gravity flow type, it means an important contribution to the farmers since the operation cost is quite low. Malibogazi groundwater dam represents one of the first experiences of Turkey in the field of groundwater storage. Although the dam has small storage capacity, it may be a model for Turkey from the viewpoints of investigation, construction, dam wall, intake facility and measurements etc.     

The Hadendowa Salif: Successes and failures of indigenous cultural institutions in managing the food system

The Hadendowa's customary law code, the Salif, used to regulate the social and economic behaviour of the Hadendowa, as well as their rational utilization of resources. Since the outbreak of the 1984 famine, however, the Hadendova have been depending on relief food, which has disrupted their Salif and rendered it uncapable of helping the Hadendowa to to cope with the current stress situation.Omer Hayati is a teaching assistant in the Geography Department, Faculty of Education, who has carried out the larger part of the survey for this study.     

Coalescence of offset rock joints under biaxial loading

Crack coalescence in rock masses was studied by performing a series of biaxial compresion tests on specimens made of rock-like material. Specimens of size 63.5 × 27.9 × 20.3 cm, made of 72% silica sand, 16% cement (Type I) and 12% water by weight were tested. The joint inclination angle was maintained at 45°, while the offset angle i.e. angle between the plane of the joint and the line that connects the two inner tips of the joints, was changed from 0° to 90° with an increment of 15°. Three levels of lateral stress were used; 0.35 MPa, 0.7 MPa and 1.5 MPa on each sample. HP data acquisition system was used to record the data for each sample. In each sample, four LVDTs were fixed to measure the axial and lateral displacement along the sample. The failure mechanisms were monitored by eye inspection and a magnifier to detect crack initiation and propagation. For each test, the failure surfaces were investigated to determine the characteristics of each surface. Wing cracks initiated at the tip of the joint for the low confining stress applied, while at higher confining stresses wing cracks also initiated at the middle of the joint. Secondary cracks initiated at the tip of the joint due to shear stress. Three modes of failure took place due to coalescence of the secondary and wing cracks. The bridge inclination was the main variable that controlled the mode of failure. For bridge inclination of 0°, the coalescence occured due to shear failure and for bridge inclination of 90° the coalescence occurred due to tensile failure while for the other bridge inclinations coalescence occured due to mixed tensile and shear failure.