Properties of dusty tori in active galactic nuclei – I. The case of SWIRE/SDSS quasars

We derive the properties of dusty tori in active galactic nuclei from the comparison of observed spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of SDSS quasars and a precomputed grid of torus models. The observed SEDs comprise SDSS photometry, Two-Micron All-Sky Survey J , H and K data, whenever available, and mid-infrared (mid-IR) data from the Spitzer Wide-area InfraRed Extragalactic Survey. The adopted model is that of Fritz, Franceschini & Hatziminaoglou. The fit is performed by standard  χ²  -minimization; the model, however, can be a multicomponent comprising a stellar and a starburst component, whenever necessary. Models with low equatorial optical depth, τ_9.7, were allowed as well as 'traditional' models with  τ_9.7≥ 1.0  , corresponding to   A _V≥ 22  and the results were compared. Fits using high optical depth tori models only produced dust more compactly distributed than in the configuration where all τ_9.7 models were permitted. Tori with decreasing dust density with the distance from the centre were favoured while there was no clear preference for models with or without angular variation of the dust density. The computed outer radii of the tori are of some tens of parsecs large but can reach, in a few cases, a few hundreds of parsecs. The mass of dust, M _Dust, and IR luminosity, L _IR, integrated in the wavelength range between 1 and 1000 μm, do not show significant variations with redshift, once the observational biases are taken into account. Objects with 70-μm detections, representing 25 per cent of the sample, are studied separately and the starburst contribution (whenever present) to the IR luminosity can reach, in the most extreme but very few cases, 80 per cent.     

Mega-monsoon variability during the late Triassic: Re-assessing the role of orbital forcing in the deposition of playa sediments in the Germanic Basin

The formation of the supercontinent Pangaea during the Permo–Triassic gave rise to an extreme monsoonal climate (often termed ‘mega-monsoon’) that has been documented by numerous palaeo-records. However, considerable debate exists about the role of orbital forcing in causing humid intervals in an otherwise arid climate. To shed new light on the forcing of monsoonal variability in subtropical Pangaea, this study focuses on sediment facies and colour variability of playa and alluvial fan deposits in an outcrop from the late Carnian (ca 225 Ma) in the southern Germanic Basin, south-western Germany. The sediments were deposited against a background of increasingly arid conditions following the humid Carnian Pluvial Event (ca 234 to 232 Ma). The ca 2·4 Myr long sedimentary succession studied shows a tripartite long-term evolution, starting with a distal mud-flat facies deposited under arid conditions. This phase was followed by a highly variable playa-lake environment that documents more humid conditions and finally a regression of the playa-lake due to a return of arid conditions. The red–green (a*) and lightness (L*) records show that this long-term variability was overprinted by alternating wet/dry cycles driven by orbital precession and ca 405 kyr eccentricity, without significant influence of obliquity. The absence of obliquity in this record indicates that high-latitude forcing played only a minor role in the southern Germanic Basin during the late Carnian. This is different from the subsequent Norian when high-latitude signals became more pronounced, potentially related to the northward drift of the Germanic Basin. The recurring pattern of pluvial events during the late Triassic demonstrates that orbital forcing, in particular eccentricity, stimulated the occurrence and intensity of wet phases. It also highlights the possibility that the Carnian Pluvial Event, although most likely triggered by enhanced volcanic activity, may also have been modified by an orbital stimulus.     

Variability of Fram Strait sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model

Analyses of a 500-year control integration of the global coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model ECHAM5.0/MPI-OM show a high variability in the ice export through Fram Strait on interannual to decadal timescales. This variability is mainly determined by variations in the sea level pressure gradient across Fram Strait and thus geostrophic wind stress. Ice thickness anomalies, formed at the Siberian coast and in the Chukchi Sea, propagate across the Arctic to Fram Strait and contribute to the variability of the ice export on a timescale of about 9 years. Large anomalies of the ice export through Fram Strait cause fresh water signals, which reach the Labrador Sea after 1–2 years and lead to significant changes in the deep convection. The associated anomalies in ice cover and ocean heat release have a significant impact on air temperature in the Labrador Sea and on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This affects the sea ice transport and distribution in the Arctic again. Sensitivity studies, simulating the effect of large ice exports through Fram Strait, show that the isolated effect of a prescribed ice/fresh water anomaly is very important for the climate variability in the Labrador Sea. Thus, the ice export through Fram Strait can be used for predictability of Labrador Sea climate up to 2 years in advance.     

500 years of trophic-state history of a hypertrophic Dutch dike-breach lake

We present a palaeolimnological study encompassing five centuries of trophic-state change of the dike-breach lake De Waay located on the Rhine-Meuse delta (the Netherlands). Diatom-inferred total phosphorus (TP) concentrations indicate hypertrophic epilimnetic conditions (>300 μg l⁻¹ TP) since the formation of the lake in the fifteenth century until the end of the eighteenth century. Cladocera data support the reconstructed trophic state and indicate turbid conditions in lake De Waay during this period. High inferred TP concentrations as well as the amount of Ti in the sediment reflect numerous flooding events. From the nineteenth century onwards reconstructed TP concentrations decreased to 40–150 μg l⁻¹ due to improvements in sewage and dike systems that considerably diminished direct river flooding and seepage-derived nutrients. As a consequence, the increased stability of littoral habitats led to an increased diversity of the Cladocera assemblages. The most significant decrease in TP concentrations to ~40 μg l⁻¹ occurred between about 1900 and 1930. This mesotrophic phase was a consequence of the isolation of the lake from catchment drainage and the introduction of a highly elaborate flood control during this period. However, since the mid twentieth century a eutrophication trend is preserved in the record, likely related to increased agricultural activity in the vicinity of the lake. Our results emphasize that land-use and trophic-state history must be taken into account when evaluating the ecological status of lakes for water management and protection actions, especially for lakes in landscapes that are strongly modified by human action.     

Is area affected by flood or stagnant water independently associated with poorer health outcomes in urban slums of Dhaka and adjacent rural areas?

This study investigated the association of flood/stagnant water (FSW) with various health outcomes among respondents living in urban slums of Dhaka and adjacent rural areas. We also assessed the differences of individual-, household- and area-level characteristics between the FSW-affected and non-affected areas. Bangladesh as a whole and slums in the megacity of Dhaka in particular are severely affected by the FSW. Data were collected from 3,207 subjects (aged 10+ years) through baseline surveys conducted in March 2008 and 2009. Twelve big slums in Dhaka and three adjacent villages were selected as study areas. Face-to-face interviews using a multidimensional pre-tested questionnaire were conducted by the trained university graduates. We performed various types of analyses ranging from the simple frequency analysis to the multivariable-adjusted logistic regression modelling. Our empirical findings suggest that slums were more affected by the FSW as compared to the rural areas. People living in the FSW-affected areas were more vulnerable in terms of individual-, household- and area-level characteristics than non-affected people. Age was also significantly associated with various health outcomes. According to multivariable analyses controlled for various factors, the FSW-affected people reported significantly higher likelihoods of health symptoms (namely fever, cold/cough, weakness), communicable diseases (namely diarrhoea and gastric disease) and poor mental well-being as compared to the non-affected people. Only the burden of non-communicable diseases was lower in the FSW-affected areas than the non-affected areas. Our findings lead us to conclude that the FSW-affected area is an independent risk factor for various physical and mental health problems. Urban slums are more affected than rural areas by the FSW. Therefore, we underscore the necessities of well-designed and comprehensive public health interventions focusing on individual, community and higher levels of interventions to reduce the FSW-related health and other consequences among the people living in the FSW-affected areas and urban slums in the rapidly growing city of Dhaka, Bangladesh.     

Late Pleistocene outburst floods from Issyk Kul,Kyrgyzstan?

Elevated shorelines and lake sediments surrounding Issyk Kul, the world's second largest mountain lake, record fluctuating lake levels during Quaternary times. Together with bathymetric and geochemical data, these markers document alternating phases of lake closure and external drainage. The uppermost level of lake sediments requires a former damming of the lake's western outlet through the Boam gorge. We test previous hypothesised ice or landslide dam failures by exploring possible links between late Quaternary lake levels and outbursts. We review and recompile the chronology of reported changes in lake site, and offer new ages of abandoned shorelines using ¹⁴C in bivalve and gastropod shells, and plant detritus, as well as sand lenses in delta and river sediments using Infrared Stimulated Luminescence. Our dates are consistent with elevated lake levels between ~45 ka and 22 ka. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al exposure ages of fan terraces containing erratic boulders (>3 m) downstream of the gorge constrain the timing of floods to 20.5–18.5 ka, postdating a highstand of Issyk Kul. A flow‐competence analysis gives a peak discharge of >10⁴ m³ s^–1 for entraining and transporting these boulders. Palaeoflood modelling, however, shows that naturally dammed lakes unconnected to Issyk Kul could have produced such high discharges upon sudden emptying. Hence, although our data are consistent with hypotheses of catastrophic outburst floods, average lake‐level changes of up to 90 mm yr^–1 in the past 150 years were highly variable without any outbursts, so that linking lake‐level drops to catastrophic dam breaks remains ambiguous using sedimentary archives alone. This constraint may readily apply to other Quaternary lakes of that size elsewhere. Nonetheless, our reconstructed Pleistocene floods are among the largest reported worldwide, and motivate further research into the palaeoflood hydrology of Central Asia. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calculation of the Inverse of the Covariance

In reservoir characterization, the covariance is often used to describe the spatial correlation and variation in rock properties or the uncertainty in rock properties. The inverse of the covariance, on the other hand, is seldom discussed in geostatistics. In this paper, I show that the inverse is required for simulation and estimation of Gaussian random fields, and that it can be identified with the differential operator in regularized inverse theory. Unfortunately, because the covariance matrix for parameters in reservoir models can be extremely large, calculation of the inverse can be a problem. In this paper, I discuss four methods of calculating the inverse of the covariance, two of which are analytical, and two of which are purely numerical. By taking advantage of the assumed stationarity of the covariance, none of the methods require inversion of the full covariance matrix.     

Targeting carbon dioxide removal in the European Union

In principle, many climate policymakers have accepted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation targets, but they have avoided proposing by whom CDR might be delivered. Given its role in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) might be expected to lead the way. But among EU climate policymakers so far there is little talk on CDR, let alone action. Here we assess how best to ‘target’ CDR to motivate EU policymakers exploring which CDR target strategy may work best to start dealing with CDR on a meaningful scale. A comprehensive CDR approach would focus on delivering the CDR volumes required from the EU by 2100, approximately at least 50 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂, according to global model simulations aiming to keep warming below 2°C. A limited CDR approach would focus on an intermediate target to deliver the CDR needed to reach ‘net zero emissions’ (i.e. the gross negative emissions needed to offset residual positive emissions that are too expensive or even impossible to mitigate). We argue that a comprehensive CDR approach may be too intimidating for EU policymakers. A limited CDR approach that only addresses the necessary steps to reach the (intermediate) target of ‘net zero emissions’ is arguably more achievable, since it is a better match to the existing policy paradigm and would allow for a pragmatic phase-in of CDR while avoiding outright resistance by environmental NGOs and the broader public.

Key policy insights

• Making CDR an integral part of EU climate policy has the potential to significantly reshape the policy landscape.

• Burden sharing considerations would probably play a major role, with comprehensive CDR prolonging the disparity and tensions between progressives and laggards.

• Introducing limited CDR in the context of ‘net zero’ pathways would retain a visible primary focus on decarbonization but acknowledge the need for a significant enhancement of removals via ‘natural’ and/or ‘engineered’ sinks.

• A decarbonization approach that intends to lead to a low level of ‘residual emissions’ (to be tackled by a pragmatic phase-in of CDR) should be the priority of EU climate policy.

     

The IRAS PSCz dipole

We use the PSC z IRAS galaxy redshift survey to analyse the cosmological galaxy dipole out to a distance of 300  h ¹ Mpc. The masked area is filled in three different ways, first by sampling the whole sky at random, secondly by using neighbouring areas to fill a masked region, and thirdly using a spherical harmonic analysis. The method of treatment of the mask is found to have a significant effect on the final calculated dipole.
The conversion from redshift space to real space is accomplished by using an analytical model of the cluster and void distribution, based on 88 nearby groups, 854 clusters and 163 voids, with some of the clusters and all of the voids found from the PSC z data base.
The dipole for the whole PSC z sample appears to have converged within a distance of 200  h ¹ Mpc and yields a value for , consistent with earlier determinations from IRAS samples by a variety of methods. For b =1, the 2 range for ₀ is 0.431.02.
The direction of the dipole is within 13° of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) dipole, the main uncertainty in direction being associated with the masked area behind the Galactic plane. The improbability of further major contributions to the dipole amplitude coming from volumes larger than those surveyed here means that the question of the origin of the CMB dipole is essentially resolved.