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611.
John G. McLellan Nicholas H.S. Oliver Bruce E. Hobbs 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,89(1-3):271
The migration of basinal brines into basement material has been proposed as a means of scouring or leaching metals for subsequent ore deposition. Here we address this issue by numerically examining competing processes, namely deformation, fluid flow and thermal gradients, to describe potential fluid pathways leading to enrichment of metals and ore deposition. Stable convective fluid patterns may be established across the cover/basement interfaces if permeability contrasts are minimized, however, at the onset of extensional deformation these convective patterns quickly collapse. On cessation of the deformation, convection cells again develop, which are oscillatory with time. Input to the thermal budget from a radiogenic heat source suggests that basinal fluids can be drawn down around the margins of granite intrusions and fluid mixing processes may take place due to small and localised convective patterns. Fluid migration from basin into basement and back is highly likely given the right conditions, however, the rate and extent of fluid flow are determined by thermal and deformation processes. 相似文献
612.
The problem of assimilating biased and inaccurate observations into inadequate models of the physical systems from which the observations were taken is common in the petroleum and groundwater fields. When large amounts of data are assimilated without accounting for model error and observation bias, predictions tend to be both overconfident and incorrect. In this paper, we propose a workflow for calibration of imperfect models to biased observations that involves model construction, model calibration, model criticism and model improvement. Model criticism is based on computation of model diagnostics which provide an indication of the validity of assumptions. During the model improvement step, we advocate identification of additional physically motivated parameters based on examination of data mismatch after calibration and addition of bias correction terms. If model diagnostics indicates the presence of residual model error after parameters have been added, then we advocate estimation of a “total” observation error covariance matrix, whose purpose is to reduce weighting of observations that cannot be matched because of deficiency of the model. Although the target applications of this methodology are in the subsurface, we illustrate the approach with two simplified examples involving prediction of the future velocity of fall of a sphere from models calibrated to a short-time series of biased measurements with independent additive random noise. The models into which the data are assimilated contain model errors due to neglect of physical processes and neglect of uncertainty in parameters. In every case, the estimated total error covariance is larger than the true observation covariance implying that the observations need not be matched to the accuracy of the measuring instrument. Predictions are much improved when all model improvement steps were taken. 相似文献
613.
Oliver Wetter Christian Pfister Johannes P. Werner Eduardo Zorita Sebastian Wagner Sonia I. Seneviratne Jürgen Herget Uwe Grünewald Jürg Luterbacher Maria-Joao Alcoforado Mariano Barriendos Ursula Bieber Rudolf Brázdil Karl H. Burmeister Chantal Camenisch Antonio Contino Petr Dobrovolný Rüdiger Glaser Iso Himmelsbach Andrea Kiss Oldřich Kotyza Thomas Labbé Danuta Limanówka Laurent Litzenburger Øyvind Nordli Kathleen Pribyl Dag Retsö Dirk Riemann Christian Rohr Werner Siegfried Johan Söderberg Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):365-367
614.
Oliver Wetter Christian Pfister Johannes P. Werner Eduardo Zorita Sebastian Wagner Sonia I. Seneviratne Jürgen Herget Uwe Grünewald Jürg Luterbacher Maria-Joao Alcoforado Mariano Barriendos Ursula Bieber Rudolf Brázdil Karl H. Burmeister Chantal Camenisch Antonio Contino Petr Dobrovolný Rüdiger Glaser Iso Himmelsbach Andrea Kiss Oldřich Kotyza Thomas Labbé Danuta Limanówka Laurent Litzenburger Øyvind Nordl Kathleen Pribyl Dag Retsö Dirk Riemann Christian Rohr Werner Siegfried Johan Söderberg Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):349-363
The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models. 相似文献
615.
Oliver Wetter Christian Pfister Rolf Weingartner Jürg Luterbacher Tom Reist Jürg Trösch 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):733-758
Abstract The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m 3 s‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m 3 s ‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features. Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758. 相似文献
616.
Eric C. J. Oliver Jinyu Sheng Keith R. Thompson Jorge R. Urrego Blanco 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1425-1446
This study presents a methodology for estimating extreme current speeds from numerical model results using extremal analysis techniques. This method is used to estimate the extreme near-surface and near-bottom current speeds of the northwest Atlantic Ocean with 50-year return periods from 17?years of model output. The non-tidal currents produced by a three-dimensional ocean circulation model for the 1988?C2004 period were first used to estimate and map the 17-year return period extreme current speeds at the surface and near the bottom. Extremal analysis techniques (i.e., fitting the annual maxima to the Type I probability distribution) are used to estimate and map the 50-year extreme current speeds. Tidal currents are dominant in some parts of the northwest Atlantic, and a Monte Carlo-based methodology is developed to take into account the fact that large non-tidal extrema may occur at different tidal phases. The inclusion of tidal currents in this way modifies the estimated 50-year extreme current speeds, and this is illustrated along several representative transects and depth profiles. Seasonal variations are examined by calculating the extreme current speeds for fall-winter and spring?Csummer. Finally, the distribution of extreme currents is interpreted taking into account (1) variability about the time-mean current speeds, (2) wind-driven Ekman currents, and (3) flow along isobaths. 相似文献
617.
618.
Andreas Borchers Elisabeth Dietze Gerhard Kuhn Oliver Esper Ines Voigt Kai Hartmann Bernhard Diekmann 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2016,37(1):49-70
A multi-proxy study including sedimentological, mineralogical, biogeochemical and micropaleontological methods was conducted on sediment core PS69/849-2 retrieved from Burton Basin, MacRobertson Shelf, East Antarctica. The goal of this study was to depict the deglacial and Holocene environmental history of the MacRobertson Land–Prydz Bay region. A special focus was put on the timing of ice-sheet retreat and the variability of bottom-water formation due to sea ice formation through the Holocene. Results from site PS69/849-2 provide the first paleo-environmental record of Holocene variations in bottom-water production probably associated to the Cape Darnley polynya, which is the second largest polynya in the Antarctic. Methods included end-member modeling of laser-derived high-resolution grain size data to reconstruct the depositional regimes and bottom-water activity. The provenance of current-derived and ice-transported material was reconstructed using clay-mineral and heavy-mineral analysis. Conclusions on biogenic production were drawn by determination of biogenic opal and total organic carbon. It was found that the ice shelf front started to retreat from the site around 12.8 ka BP. This coincides with results from other records in Prydz Bay and suggests warming during the early Holocene optimum next to global sea level rise as the main trigger. Ice-rafted debris was then supplied to the site until 5.5 cal. ka BP, when Holocene global sea level rise stabilized and glacial isostatic rebound on MacRobertson Land commenced. Throughout the Holocene, three episodes of enhanced bottom-water activity probably due to elevated brine rejection in Cape Darnley polynya occured between 11.5 and 9 cal. ka BP, 5.6 and 4.5 cal. ka BP and since 1.5 cal. ka BP. These periods are related to shifts from warmer to cooler conditions at the end of Holocene warm periods, in particular the early Holocene optimum, the mid-Holocene warm period and at the beginning of the neoglacial. In contrast, between 7.7 and 6.7 cal. ka BP, brine rejection shut down, maybe owed to warm conditions and pronounced open-water intervals. 相似文献
619.
IRNSS-1A: signal and clock characterization of the Indian regional navigation system 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
An initial characterization of the L5 and S-Band navigation signals transmitted by the first satellite of the Indian regional navigation satellite system (IRNSS) is presented. In the absence of a public signal specification, a 30 m high-gain antenna has been used to record the signal spectrum and the modulated chip sequences. For the IRNSS standard positioning service, use of a Gold ranging code is confirmed and relevant shift register parameters for the two frequencies are identified. Based on a prototype receiver, L5 single-frequency code and phase observations of IRNSS-1A have also been collected. The tracking performance is described, and the measurements are used to characterize the short-term clock stability of IRNSS-1A. 相似文献
620.
Atmospheric wet deposition of PAHs to the sea-surface microlayer 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Sea-surface microlayer (SML) and subsurface seawater samples (SSW) collected from Singapore's coastal environment were analyzed for 14 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the dissolved (DP) and suspended particulate phase (SPM). Samples were collected prior to and after rainfall events to ascertain the contribution of wet atmospheric deposition of PAH enrichment to the SML. The concentration ranges of summation operatorPAHs in the SML before rain and after wet deposition were 2.6-46.2 ngL(-1) and 4.3-278.0 ngL(-1), respectively, for the DP and 3.8-31.4 ngL(-1) and 12.8-1280 ngL(-1), respectively, for the SPM. Load factors (i.e. concentration after wet deposition relative to before wet deposition) of the atmospheric wet deposition for DP and SPM ranged from 1.4 to 42.9 and 1.2 to 337, respectively. This study provides the first data on PAH concentration, enrichment (i.e. concentration of PAHs in SML relative to subsurface water) and load factors in the SML before and after wet deposition to the ocean surface. 相似文献