The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence

Abstract

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m ³ s^‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m ³ s ^‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758.     

Extreme surface and near-bottom currents in the northwest Atlantic

This study presents a methodology for estimating extreme current speeds from numerical model results using extremal analysis techniques. This method is used to estimate the extreme near-surface and near-bottom current speeds of the northwest Atlantic Ocean with 50-year return periods from 17?years of model output. The non-tidal currents produced by a three-dimensional ocean circulation model for the 1988?C2004 period were first used to estimate and map the 17-year return period extreme current speeds at the surface and near the bottom. Extremal analysis techniques (i.e., fitting the annual maxima to the Type I probability distribution) are used to estimate and map the 50-year extreme current speeds. Tidal currents are dominant in some parts of the northwest Atlantic, and a Monte Carlo-based methodology is developed to take into account the fact that large non-tidal extrema may occur at different tidal phases. The inclusion of tidal currents in this way modifies the estimated 50-year extreme current speeds, and this is illustrated along several representative transects and depth profiles. Seasonal variations are examined by calculating the extreme current speeds for fall-winter and spring?Csummer. Finally, the distribution of extreme currents is interpreted taking into account (1) variability about the time-mean current speeds, (2) wind-driven Ekman currents, and (3) flow along isobaths.     

Holocene ice dynamics and bottom-water formation associated with Cape Darnley polynya activity recorded in Burton Basin,East Antarctica

A multi-proxy study including sedimentological, mineralogical, biogeochemical and micropaleontological methods was conducted on sediment core PS69/849-2 retrieved from Burton Basin, MacRobertson Shelf, East Antarctica. The goal of this study was to depict the deglacial and Holocene environmental history of the MacRobertson Land–Prydz Bay region. A special focus was put on the timing of ice-sheet retreat and the variability of bottom-water formation due to sea ice formation through the Holocene. Results from site PS69/849-2 provide the first paleo-environmental record of Holocene variations in bottom-water production probably associated to the Cape Darnley polynya, which is the second largest polynya in the Antarctic. Methods included end-member modeling of laser-derived high-resolution grain size data to reconstruct the depositional regimes and bottom-water activity. The provenance of current-derived and ice-transported material was reconstructed using clay-mineral and heavy-mineral analysis. Conclusions on biogenic production were drawn by determination of biogenic opal and total organic carbon. It was found that the ice shelf front started to retreat from the site around 12.8 ka BP. This coincides with results from other records in Prydz Bay and suggests warming during the early Holocene optimum next to global sea level rise as the main trigger. Ice-rafted debris was then supplied to the site until 5.5 cal. ka BP, when Holocene global sea level rise stabilized and glacial isostatic rebound on MacRobertson Land commenced. Throughout the Holocene, three episodes of enhanced bottom-water activity probably due to elevated brine rejection in Cape Darnley polynya occured between 11.5 and 9 cal. ka BP, 5.6 and 4.5 cal. ka BP and since 1.5 cal. ka BP. These periods are related to shifts from warmer to cooler conditions at the end of Holocene warm periods, in particular the early Holocene optimum, the mid-Holocene warm period and at the beginning of the neoglacial. In contrast, between 7.7 and 6.7 cal. ka BP, brine rejection shut down, maybe owed to warm conditions and pronounced open-water intervals.     

The importance of defining chemical potentials,substitution mechanisms and solubility in trace element diffusion studies: the case of Zr and Hf in olivine

The diffusion, substitution mechanism and solubility limits of Zr and Hf in synthetic forsterite (Mg₂SiO₄) and San Carlos olivine (Mg_0.9Fe_0.1)₂SiO₄ have been investigated between 1,200 and 1,500 °C as a function of the chemical potentials of the components in the system MgO(FeO)–SiO₂–ZrO₂(HfO₂). The effect of oxygen fugacity and crystallographic orientation were also investigated. The solubilities of Zr in forsterite are highest and diffusion fastest when the coexisting three-phase source assemblage includes ZrSiO₄ (zircon) or HfSiO₄ (hafnon), and lower and slower, respectively, when the source assemblage includes MgO (periclase). This indicates that Zr and Hf substitute on the octahedral sites in olivine, charge balanced by magnesium vacancies. Diffusion is anisotropic, with rates along the crystal axes increasing in the order a < b < c. The generalized diffusion relationship as a function of chemical activity (as \(a_{{{\text{SiO}}_{2} }}\)), orientation and temperature is: \(logD_{\text{Zr}} = \frac{1}{4}loga_{{{\text{SiO}}_{2} }} + logD_{0} - \left( {\frac{{368 \pm 17\;{\text{kJ}}\;{\text{mol}}^{ - 1} }}{{2.303\;{\text{RT}}}}} \right)\) where the values of log D ₀ are ?3.8(±0.5), ?3.4(±0.5) and ?3.1(±0.5) along the a, b and c axes, respectively. Most experiments were conducted in air (fO₂ = 10^?0.68 bars), but one at fO₂ = 10^?11.2 bars at 1,400 °C shows no resolvable effect of oxygen fugacity on Zr diffusion. Hf is slightly more soluble in olivine than Zr, but diffuses slightly slower. Diffusivities of Zr in experiments in San Carlos olivine at 1,400 °C, fO₂ = 10^?6.6 bars are similar to those in forsterite at the same conditions, showing that the controls on diffusivities are adequately captured by the simple system (nominally iron-free) experiments. Diffusivities are in good agreement with those measured by Spandler and O’Neill (Contrib Miner Petrol 159:791–818, 2010) in San Carlos olivine using silicate melt as the source at 1,300 °C, and fall within the range of most measurements of Fe–Mg inter-diffusion in olivine at this temperature. Forsterite–melt partitioning experiments in the CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–ZrO₂/HfO₂ show that the interface concentrations from the diffusion experiments represent true equilibrium solubilities. Another test of internal consistency is that the ratios of the interface concentrations between experiments buffered by Mg₂SiO₄ + Mg₂Si₂O₆ + ZrSiO₄ or Mg₂SiO₄ + ZrSiO₄ + ZrO₂ (high silica activity) to those buffered by Mg₂SiO₄ + MgO + ZrO₂ (low silica activity) agree well with the ratios calculated from thermodynamic data. This study highlights the importance of buffering chemical potentials in diffusion experiments to provide constraints on the interface diffusant concentrations and hence validate the assumption of interface equilibrium.     

IRNSS-1A: signal and clock characterization of the Indian regional navigation system

An initial characterization of the L5 and S-Band navigation signals transmitted by the first satellite of the Indian regional navigation satellite system (IRNSS) is presented. In the absence of a public signal specification, a 30 m high-gain antenna has been used to record the signal spectrum and the modulated chip sequences. For the IRNSS standard positioning service, use of a Gold ranging code is confirmed and relevant shift register parameters for the two frequencies are identified. Based on a prototype receiver, L5 single-frequency code and phase observations of IRNSS-1A have also been collected. The tracking performance is described, and the measurements are used to characterize the short-term clock stability of IRNSS-1A.     

Atmospheric wet deposition of PAHs to the sea-surface microlayer

Sea-surface microlayer (SML) and subsurface seawater samples (SSW) collected from Singapore's coastal environment were analyzed for 14 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the dissolved (DP) and suspended particulate phase (SPM). Samples were collected prior to and after rainfall events to ascertain the contribution of wet atmospheric deposition of PAH enrichment to the SML. The concentration ranges of summation operatorPAHs in the SML before rain and after wet deposition were 2.6-46.2 ngL(-1) and 4.3-278.0 ngL(-1), respectively, for the DP and 3.8-31.4 ngL(-1) and 12.8-1280 ngL(-1), respectively, for the SPM. Load factors (i.e. concentration after wet deposition relative to before wet deposition) of the atmospheric wet deposition for DP and SPM ranged from 1.4 to 42.9 and 1.2 to 337, respectively. This study provides the first data on PAH concentration, enrichment (i.e. concentration of PAHs in SML relative to subsurface water) and load factors in the SML before and after wet deposition to the ocean surface.     

Amphibole and phlogopite in “hybrid” metasomatic bands monitor trace element transfer at the interface between felsic and ultramafic rocks (Eastern Alps,Italy)

Ultramafic rocks in contact to gneisses in the Mt. Hochwart HP mélange (Eastern Italian Alps) preserve a series of metasomatic mineral zones. A phlogopitite with minor tremolite and accessory zircon and apatite forms close to the gneiss (Zone 1). Zone 2 consists of tremolite, phlogopite and anthophyllite followed by Zone 3 with anthophyllite plus minor chlorite and talc. Zone 3 grades into an amphibole–garnet peridotite lens. This reaction zone has been generated by infiltration of hydrous fluids at T of 660–700 °C and P < 1.2 GPa, which occurred during exhumation of coupled continental crust and mantle peridotites.The reaction zone between a trace element-rich (gneiss) and a trace element depleted reservoir (peridotite) allows assessment of local trace element mobility in aqueous fluids. We present the results of in situ LA-ICP-MS trace element analysis of minerals from the reaction zone. Phlogopite is the main host for Large Ion Lithophile Elements (LILE) and contributes significantly to the Li, Ti, Nb, Ta, Pb and Sc budget. Anthophyllite is the main host for Li whereas all other trace elements including Rare Earth Elements (REE) are preferentially incorporated into tremolite. Combined with the abundance of these minerals over the contact zone, the mineral trace element data suggests that the LILE and REE were mobile on a small scale of a few centimetres only. Limited mobility of Ta, which is generally regarded as barely mobile in fluids, is documented in elevated contents of Ta in anthophyllite coupled with low Nb/Ta. The high Li content in minerals throughout the reaction zone suggests that Li was the most mobile element.The studied metasomatic zones mirror geochemical processes occurring in subduction zones at the slab–mantle interface. Phlogopite crystallization at the slab–mantle interface is an efficient mechanism to filter LILE from the aqueous fluid. Thus, such reaction zones, forming at temperatures < 660–700 °C, likely prevents that the typical slab signature with enriched LILE is transported by aqueous fluids over long distances in the mantle wedge. However, if coupled to the downgoing slab, phlogopite- and tremolite-rich rocks from such reaction zones might be able to act as carriers of trace elements and water into deeper parts of the subduction zone.     

Fingerprinting a multistage metamorphic fluid–rock history: Evidence from grain scale Sr,O and C isotopic and trace element variations in high-grade marbles from East Antarctica

Granulite grade marble layers interlayered with metapelitic granulites from Lützow Holm Bay, East Antarctica, provide insight into fluid–rock interactions during burial to and exhumation from lower crustal levels. Sub-millimeter scale strontium, oxygen and carbon isotope variations along with LA-ICPMS trace element geochemistry and mineral chemistry of texturally characterized carbonates and associated minerals helped to reconstruct the multistage metamorphic fluid history.Fluid–rock interaction dating back to prograde metamorphism are still preserved in consistently low oxygen and high strontium isotope compositions (δ¹⁸O = 12‰; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(550Ma) = 0.7248) within a massif dolomitic marble layer that escaped significant later metasomatism. In most marbles, total re-crystallization and isotopic resetting occurred in the presence of “externally derived” hyper-saline fluids that circulated along the carbonate layers during the early stages of prograde metamorphism. This leads to a trend of increased radiogenic Sr in marbles towards the value of associated metapelitic rocks that have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(550Ma) of 0.764.LA-ICPMS studies on trace elements in carbonate and associated silicate minerals at different textural settings, distinguished using cathodoluminescence microscopy, revealed multiple metasomatic events during retrograde metamorphism. Trace element contents of Ba, Sr, Pb and U gave compelling evidence for metasomatic alteration that postdate the exsolution of carbonate at ~ 600 ºC, which can be correlated with the fluids released from the crystallization of anatectic melts and pegmatites. Subsequently, meteoric fluid infiltration occurred at a shallower level of the crust and caused extreme oxygen isotopic heterogeneity (δ¹⁸O = 14.7 ~ ? 4.9‰) and imprinted high concentration of fluid mobile elements. Taken together our results emphasize the importance of integrating textural and chemical heterogeneities to reveal the multiple episodes of fluid–rock interaction processes in a dynamic continental crust, which has major implications on migration of fluids and material and help in formulating models on the geodynamic evolution of crust.     

Do S-type granites commonly sample infracrustal sources? New results from an integrated O, U–Pb and Hf isotope study of zircon

In contrast to I-type granites, which commonly comprise infracrustal and supracrustal sources, S-type granites typically incorporate predominantly supracrustal sources. The initial aim of this study was to identify the sources of three Scottish Caledonian (~460 Ma) S-type granites (Kemnay, Cove and Nigg Bay) by conducting oxygen, U–Pb and Hf isotope analyses in zircon in order to characterise one potential end-member magma involved in the genesis of the voluminous late Caledonian (~430–400 Ma) I-type granites. Field, whole-rock geochemical and isotopic data are consistent with the generation of the S-type granites by melting their Dalradian Supergroup country rocks. While Hf isotope compositions of magmatic zircon, U–Pb data of inherited zircons, and high mean zircon δ¹⁸O values of 9.0 ± 2.7‰ (2SD) and 9.8 ± 2.0‰ for the Kemnay and Cove granites support this model, the Nigg Bay Granite contains zircons with much lower δ¹⁸O values (6.8 ± 2.1‰), similar to those found in Scottish I-type granites. This suggests that the Nigg Bay Granite contains low-δ¹⁸O material representing either altered supracrustal material, or more likely, an infracrustal source component with mantle-like δ¹⁸O. Mixing trends in plots of δ¹⁸O vs. εHf for S-type granite zircons indicate involvement of at least two sources in all three granites. This pilot study of Scottish Caledonian S-type granites demonstrates that, while field and whole-rock geochemical data are consistent with local melting of only supracrustal sources, the oxygen isotopic record stored in zircon reveals a much more complex petrogenetic evolution involving two or more magma sources.