Development of an earthquake loss model for Turkish catastrophe insurance

Following the devastating Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes of August andNovember 1999, the Turkish Government was faced with an enormousfinancial burden as a result of its statutory obligation to cover the full costsof rebuilding. In order to offset this liability in the future – which has hadan adverse effect on the Government's economic programme – acompulsory earthquake insurance scheme has been introduced for allhouseholders in Turkey. A key element for successful implementation ofthis novel and ambitious programme is the transfer of the earthquake riskabsorbed by the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) to theinternational reinsurance market. An earthquake loss model, described inthis paper, has been developed for the TCIP to serve as a basis for thedecision-making process with respect to the pricing of its insurance policy,risk control, the purchase of reinsurance, and the transfer of seismic risk.Sample results of the loss calculations are presented.     

The genesis of the methane in Lake Kivu (Central Africa)

Large amounts of methane and carbon dioxide, among other gases, are dissolved in the deep water of Lake Kivu. There is no dispute about the primarily magmatic origin of the carbon dioxide, but models of the genesis of the methane have been contradictory up to now. They have been based on too few and partly too inaccurate data.On the basis of new measurements obtained from gas and sediment samples, some of the old concepts have been further developed to a new model. According to this model, the methane is generated mainly by bacteria from the organic carbon of the sediment. It probably also contains minor amounts of thermocatalytic methane.About 70% of the organic carbon of the upper sediment is derived from mainly magmatic carbon dioxide (old carbon), which enters the biozone of the lake from the deep water by eddy diffusion and is assimilated there. The remaining 30% comes from atmospheric carbon dioxide (young carbon) assimilated in the biozone. But because methane also migrates into the lake from deeper sediment, the¹⁴C-content in the methane dissolved in the lake water is not 30% modern but only ca. 10% modern.More isotopic measurements on plankton, methane, carbon dioxide and sediment samples are necessary to support this model.

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Zusammenfassung Im Tiefenwasser des Kivusees sind u. a. große Mengen an Methan und Kohlendioxid gelöst. Während über den hauptsächlich magmatischen Ursprung des Kohlendioxids weitgehend Einigkeit besteht, sind die bisherigen Modellvorstellungen zur Genese des Methans widersprüchlich. Sie beruhen auf zu wenigen und zum Teil zu ungenauen Meß-daten.Mit Hilfe neuer Meßergebnisse an Gas- und Sedimentproben des Kivusees wurden einige der alten Vorstellungen zu einem neuen Modell weiterentwickelt. Danach ist das Methan hauptsächlich bakteriell aus dem organischen Kohlenstoff des Sediments entstanden. Wahrscheinlich enthält es auch geringe Beimengungen thermokatalytischen Methans.Der organische Kohlenstoff des oberen Sediments stammt zu rd. 70% aus dem vorwiegend magmatischen Kohlendioxid (alter Kohlenstoff), das aus dem Tiefenwasser durch turbulenten Austausch in die Biozone des Sees gelangt und dort assimiliert wird. Die restlichen 30% stammen aus dem in der Biozone assimilierten atmosphärischen Kohlendioxid (junger Kohlenstoff). Weil jedoch auch Methan aus tieferen Sedimentschichten in den See wandert, beträgt der¹⁴C-Gehalt des im Seewasser gelösten Methans nicht 30% modern, sondern nur ca. 10% modern.Weitere Isotopenuntersuchungen an Plankton-, Methan-, Kohlendioxid- und Sedimentproben sind notwendig, um das Modell abzusichern.

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Résumé De grandes quantités de méthane et d'oxyde carbonique sont dissoutes dans les eaux profondes du Lac Kicu. Alors qu'on est en général d'accord sur l'origine surtout magmatique de l'oxyde carbonique, les modèles devant représenter la genése du méthane sont contradictoires. Ils reposent sur des données trop peu nombreuses et en partie trop inexactes.A l'aide de nouveaux résultats de mesures faites sur des échantillons de gaz et du sédiment, on a développé un nouveau modèle, à partir des anciennes représentations. D'après celui-ci, le méthane provient pour sa plus grande part du carbone organique du sédiment, transformé par des bactéries. Il contient probablement des traces d'un méthane de thermocatalyse.Le carbone organique du sédiment supérieur provient pour 70% de l'oxyde carbonique surtout magmatique (carbone »ancien«), des eaux profondes parvenu, par échanges turbulents, dans la biozone du lac, où l'oxyde carbonique est assimilé. Les 30% restant proviennent de l'oxyde carbonique atmosphérique (carbone »jeune«) assimilé dans la biozone. Le méthane des couches profondes du sédiment migrant dans le lac, la teneur en¹⁴C de méthane dissous dans les eaux du lac n'est pas de 30% modernes, mais de 10% modernes.D'autres recherches sur les isotopes d'échantillons du plancton, du méthane, de l'oxyde carbonique et du sédiment du Lac Kivu seront nécessaires pour confirmer ce modéle.

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African environmental and climatic changes and the general atmospheric circulation in late pleistocene and holocene

The paper describes the environmental and climatic changes which took place in Africa from the late Pleistocene through the Holocene and the general atmospheric circulation patterns which likely correspond to them. Three major periods are considered: (1) a period of aridity and dune building c. 20,000-12,000 B.P. in which the Sahara advanced considerably southward; (2) a moist, lacustrine period c. 10,000-8,000 B.P.; and (3) a second moist, lacustrine period toward c. 6,500-4,500 B.P. in which the entire Sahara desert contracted considerably. The prevailing atmospheric circulation patterns are theorized on the basis of corresponding changes of surface boundary conditions-primarily changing thermal character—and known dynamic behavior of the atmosphere.     

Beitrag zur Petrographie und Genese der Hämatiterze des Lahn-Dill-Gebietes

Ohne ZusammenfassungHerrn Professor Dr.Carl W. Correns zur 60. Geburtstag gewidmet.     

Die Rationalisierung der industriellen Wasserwirtschaft,dargestellt am Beispiel der Eisenhütten

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

An energy tax to reduce the greenhouse effect: An all winners concept

This is based on a concept worked out by EUROSOLAR, an Association for the Solar Energy Age, of which Hermann Scheer is chairman and Wilfrid Bach is a member of the board.     

Tracking and orbit determination performance of the GRAS instrument on MetOp-A

The global navigation satellite system receiver for atmospheric sounding (GRAS) on MetOp-A is the first European GPS receiver providing dual-frequency navigation and occultation measurements from a spaceborne platform on a routine basis. The receiver is based on ESA’s AGGA-2 correlator chip, which implements a high-quality tracking scheme for semi-codeless P(Y) code tracking on the L1 and L2 frequency. Data collected with the zenith antenna on MetOp-A have been used to perform an in-flight characterization of the GRAS instrument with focus on the tracking and navigation performance. Besides an assessment of the receiver noise and systematic measurement errors, the study addresses the precise orbit determination accuracy achievable with the GRAS receiver. A consistency on the 5 cm level is demonstrated for reduced dynamics orbit solutions computed independently by four different agencies and software packages. With purely kinematic solutions, 10 cm accuracy is obtained. As a part of the analysis, an empirical antenna offset correction and preliminary phase center correction map are derived, which notably reduce the carrier phase residuals and improve the consistency of kinematic orbit determination results.