Landslide prediction from machine learning

Predicting where and when landslides are likely to occur in a specific region of interest remains a key challenge in natural hazards research and mitigation. While the basic mechanics of slope‐failure initiation and runout can be cast into physical and numerical models, a scarcity of sufficiently detailed and real‐time measurements of soil, rock‐mass and groundwater conditions prohibits accurate landslide forecasting. Researchers are therefore increasingly exploring multivariate data analysis techniques from the fields of data mining or machine learning in order to approximate future occurrences of landslides from past distribution patterns. This work has elucidated patterns of spatial susceptibility, but temporal forecasts have remained largely empirical. Most machine learning techniques achieve overall success rates of 75–95 percent. Whilst this may seem very promising, issues remain with data input quality, potential overfitting and commensurate inadequate choice of prediction models, inadvertent inclusion of redundant or noise variables, and technical limits to predicting only certain types and sizes of landslides. Simpler models provide only slightly inferior predictions to more complex models, and should guide the way for a more widespread application of data mining in regional landslide prediction. This approach should especially be communicated to planners and decision makers. Future research may want to develop: (1) further best‐practice guidelines for model selection; (2) predictions of occurrence and runout of large slope failures at the regional scale; and (3) temporal forecasts of landslides.     

Trading more food: Implications for land use,greenhouse gas emissions,and the food system

The volume of agricultural trade increased by more than ten times throughout the past six decades and is likely to continue with high rates in the future. Thereby, it largely affects environment and climate. We analyse future trade scenarios covering the period of 2005–2045 by evaluating economic and environmental effects using the global land-use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”). This is the first trade study using spatially explicit mapping of land use patterns and greenhouse gas emissions. We focus on three scenarios: the reference scenario fixes current trade patterns, the policy scenario follows a historically derived liberalisation pathway, and the liberalisation scenario assumes a path, which ends with full trade liberalisation in 2045.Further trade liberalisation leads to lower global costs of food. Regions with comparative advantages like Latin America for cereals and oil crops and China for livestock products will export more. In contrast, regions like the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia face the highest increases of imports. Deforestation, mainly in Latin America, leads to significant amounts of additional carbon emissions due to trade liberalisation. Non-CO₂ emissions will mostly shift to China due to comparative advantages in livestock production and rising livestock demand in the region. Overall, further trade liberalisation leads to higher economic benefits at the expense of environment and climate, if no other regulations are put in place.     

Lateglacial environmental and climatic changes at the Maloja Pass,Central Swiss Alps,as recorded by chironomids and pollen

Chironomids and pollen were studied in a radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence obtained from a former lake near the Maloja Pass in the Central Swiss Alps (1865 m a.s.l.) to reconstruct the Lateglacial environment. Pollen assemblages imply a vegetation development around the Maloja Pass from shrub tundra at the beginning of the Allerød to coniferous forest during the early Holocene with a lowering of the timberline during the Younger Dryas. Chironomid assemblages are characterized by several abrupt shifts in dominant taxa through the Lateglacial. The occurrence of taxa able to survive hypoxia in the second part of the Allerød and during the Preboreal, and their disappearance at the onset of the Younger Dryas cold phase suggest summer thermal stratification and unfavourable hypolimnetic oxygen conditions in the palaeo-lake during the warmer periods of the Lateglacial interstadial and early Holocene. Mean July air temperatures were reconstructed using a chironomid-temperature transfer function from the Alpine region. The pattern of reconstructed temperature changes agrees well with the Greenland δ¹⁸O record and other Lateglacial temperature inferences from Central Europe. The inferred July temperatures of ca 10.0 °C during most of the Allerød were slightly lower than modern values (10.8 °C) and increased up to ca 11.7 °C (i.e., above present-day values) at the end of the Allerød. The first part of the Younger Dryas was colder (ca 8.8 °C) than the second part (ca 9.8 °C). During most of the Preboreal, the temperatures persisted within the limits of 13.5–14.5 °C (i.e., ca 3 °C above present-day values). The amplitudes of temperature changes at the Allerød–Younger Dryas–Preboreal transitions were ca 3.5–4.0 °C. The temperature reconstruction also shows three short-lived cooling events of ca 1.5–2.0 °C, which may be attributed to the centennial-scale Greenland Interstadial events GI-1d and GI-1b, and the Preboreal Oscillation.     

Kalman-filter-based GPS clock estimation for near real-time positioning

In this article, an algorithm for clock offset estimation of the GPS satellites is presented. The algorithm is based on a Kalman-filter and processes undifferenced code and carrier-phase measurements of a global tracking network. The clock offset and drift of the satellite clocks are estimated along with tracking station clock offsets, tropospheric zenith path delay and carrier-phase ambiguities. The article provides a brief overview of already existing near-real-time and real-time clock products. The filter algorithm and data processing scheme is presented. Finally, the accuracy of the orbit and clock product is assessed with a precise orbit determination of the MetOp satellite and compared to results gained with other real-time products.

Antenna phase center calibration for precise positioning of LEO satellites

Phase center variations of the receiver and transmitter antenna constitute a remaining uncertainty in the high precision orbit determination (POD) of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites using GPS measurements. Triggered by the adoption of absolute phase patterns in the IGS processing standards, a calibration of the Sensor Systems S67-1575-14 antenna with GFZ choke ring has been conducted that serves as POD antenna on various geodetic satellites such as CHAMP, GRACE and TerraSAR-X. Nominal phase patterns have been obtained with a robotic measurement system in a field campaign and the results were used to assess the impact of receiver antenna phase patterns on the achievable positioning accuracy. Along with this, phase center distortions in the actual spacecraft environment were characterized based on POD carrier phase residuals for the GRACE and TerraSAR-X missions. It is shown that the combined ground and in-flight calibration can improve the carrier phase modeling accuracy to a level of 4 mm which is close to the pure receiver noise. A 3.5 cm (3D rms) consistency of kinematic and reduced dynamic orbit determination solutions is achieved for TerraSAR-X, which presumably reflects the limitations of presently available GPS ephemeris products. The reduced dynamic solutions themselves match the observations of high grade satellite laser ranging stations to 1.5 cm but are potentially affected by cross-track biases at the cm-level. With respect to the GPS based relative navigation of TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X formation, the in-flight calibration of the antenna phase patterns is considered essential for an accurate modeling of differential carrier phase measurements and a mm level baseline reconstruction.

The Greenland Sea tracer experiment 1996-2002: Horizontal mixing and transport of Greenland Sea Intermediate Water

In summer 1996, a tracer release experiment using sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) was launched in the intermediate-depth waters of the central Greenland Sea (GS), to study the mixing and ventilation processes in the region and its role in the northern limb of the Atlantic overturning circulation. Here we describe the hydrographic context of the experiment, the methods adopted and the results from the monitoring of the horizontal tracer spread for the 1996-2002 period documented by ∼10 shipboard surveys. The tracer marked “Greenland Sea Arctic Intermediate Water” (GSAIW). This was redistributed in the gyre by variable winter convection penetrating only to mid-depths, reaching at most 1800 m depth during the strongest event observed in 2002.For the first 18 months, the tracer remained mainly in the Greenland Sea. Vigorous horizontal mixing within the Greenland Sea gyre and a tight circulation of the gyre interacting slowly with the other basins under strong topographic influences were identified. We use the tracer distributions to derive the horizontal shear at the scale of the Greenland Sea gyre, and rates of horizontal mixing at ∼10 and ∼300 km scales. Mixing rates at small scale are high, several times those observed at comparable depths at lower latitudes. Horizontal stirring at the sub-gyre scale is mediated by numerous and vigorous eddies. Evidence obtained during the tracer release suggests that these play an important role in mixing water masses to form the intermediate waters of the central Greenland Sea.By year two, the tracer had entered the surrounding current systems at intermediate depths and small concentrations were in proximity to the overflows into the North Atlantic. After 3 years, the tracer had spread over the Nordic Seas basins. Finally by year six, an intensive large survey provided an overall synoptic documentation of the spreading of the tagged GSAIW in the Nordic Seas. A circulation scheme of the tagged water originating from the centre of the GS is deduced from the horizontal spread of the tracer. We present this circulation and evaluate the transport budgets of the tracer between the GS and the surroundings basins. The overall residence time for the tagged GSAIW in the Greenland Sea was about 2.5 years. We infer an export of intermediate water of GSAIW from the GS of 1 to 1.85 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹) for the period from September 1998 to June 2002 based on the evolution of the amount of tracer leaving the GS gyre. There is strong exchange between the Greenland Sea and Arctic Ocean via Fram Strait, but the contribution of the Greenland Sea to the Denmark Strait and Iceland Scotland overflows is modest, probably not exceeding 6% during the period under study.     

基于SWARM双星观测的场向电流的经度变化

本文利用SWARM A和C双星高精度的矢量磁场数据研究了不同季节高纬地区场向电流(FACs)随地磁经度和地方时的变化情况.研究发现:在南北半球,FACs存在明显的经度变化,南半球FACs的变化强度大约是北半球的1.2～3.2倍.利用潮汐谱分析法我们发现FACs中占主导的非迁移潮汐分量为DW2和D0.在春秋和夏季半球,DW2波更为明显.D0波可用太阳光照的经度变化来解释,向阳侧靠近磁极的经度带比远离磁极的经度带有更强的太阳光照射.DW2波则与地磁场强度和地磁倾角等因素有关.全球电离层与热层模型计算的FACs中D0波占主导,且中性风和对流电场对D0波的贡献几乎相当.     

Rock-glacier dams in High Asia

Rock glaciers in semiarid mountains contain large amounts of ice and might be important water stores aside from glaciers, lakes, and rivers. Yet whether and how rock glaciers interact with river channels in mountain valleys remains largely unresolved. We examine the potential for rock glaciers to block or disrupt river channels, using a new inventory of more than 2000 intact rock glaciers that we mapped from remotely sensed imagery in the Karakoram (KR), Tien Shan (TS), and Altai (ALT) mountains. We find that between 5% and 14% of the rock glaciers partly buried, blocked, diverted or constricted at least 95 km of mountain rivers in the entire study area. We use a Bayesian robust logistic regression with multiple topographic and climatic inputs to discern those rock glaciers disrupting mountain rivers from those with no obvious impacts. We identify elevation and potential incoming solar radiation (PISR), together with the size of feeder basins, as dominant predictors, so that lower-lying and larger rock glaciers from larger basins are more likely to disrupt river channels. Given that elevation and PISR are key inputs for modelling the regional distribution of mountain permafrost from the positions of rock-glacier toes, we infer that river-blocking rock glaciers may be diagnostic of non-equilibrated permafrost. Principal component analysis adds temperature evenness and wet-season precipitation to the controls that characterise rock glaciers impacting on rivers. Depending on the choice of predictors, the accuracy of our classification is moderate to good with median posterior area-under-the-curve values of 0.71–0.89. Clarifying whether rapidly advancing rock glaciers can physically impound rivers, or fortify existing dams instead, deserves future field investigation. We suspect that rock-glacier dams are conspicuous features that have a polygenetic history and encourage more research on the geomorphic coupling between permafrost lobes, river channels, and the sediment cascades of semiarid mountain belts. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhanced nondestructive characterization of ordinary chondrites using complex magnetic susceptibility measurements

Ordinary chondrites have previously been nondestructively characterized using bulk magnetic susceptibility, broadly reflecting their Fe-Ni alloy content. We seek to expand the information that can be recovered from magnetic susceptibility by using the University of Toronto Electromagnetic Induction Spectrometer (UTEMIS) to measure the complex magnetic susceptibility tensor of 20 ordinary chondrites samples in addition to 16 Gao–Guenie (H5) chondrites at 35 frequencies from 90 Hz to 64 kHz, at variable low applied field strengths <10 A m⁻¹. Following removal of the field-dependent component of susceptibility, frequency dependence, in- and out-of-phase components, and bulk magnetic susceptibility were interpreted. Most meteorites showed no frequency-dependent in-phase responses, but had a frequency-dependent out-of-phase response attributed to eddy currents induced in conductive minerals. Greater in- and out-of-phase frequency dependence correlated with lower fayalite content in olivine and was, in turn, inversely proportional to Fe-Ni alloy content. The uncertainty in the UTEMIS measurements ranges from approximately 0.05% for low-frequency in-phase measurements to a maximum of 3% for low-frequency out-of-phase measurements. This uncertainty level was far lower than the intra-meteorite variability for the Gao–Guenie suite suggesting inhomogeneity at scales of approximately 10 g.