东准噶尔喀拉萨依高分异A型花岗岩岩石成因及其地质意义

喀拉萨依岩体位于东准噶尔卡拉麦里碱性花岗岩带西端,由钾长花岗岩和二长花岗岩组成。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄为307.7±3.2Ma~309.6±2.0Ma,岩石高硅(Si O2平均含量为77.25%)、富碱(K2O+Na2O=7.50%~9.23%)、低铝(A/CNK=0.922~1.084),贫钙、镁;富集Rb、K、Th等大离子亲石元素及Zr、Hf等高场强元素和稀土元素,亏损Ba、Sr、Eu。10000Ga/Al值变化于7.00~10.35之间,总体上具碱性A型花岗岩的特征,是该岩带东侧老鸦泉—黄羊山A型花岗岩岩基经高程度分异演化的产物,并非前人认为的S型花岗岩。岩体具正εNd(t)值(3.5~6.0)和年轻的Nd模式年龄(TDM2=520~630Ma),Pb同位素投点位于造山带演化线附近,同位素数据显示岩浆来源于新生造山带下部的年轻地壳。从本次1∶5万区调成果看,卡拉麦里洋盆在晚泥盆世之前已经闭合,从晚泥盆世开始转入碰撞后的拉张环境,在晚石炭世早期进入板内裂谷发展阶段,因此喀拉萨依岩体应是该区板内裂谷阶段而非前人所说的后碰撞阶段的产物。     

Time delay effect between long quasi-periodic oscillations of 37 GHz radio sources and the magnetic field of the nearest sunspots

Measurements and the interpretation of the time delay effect between long quasi-periodic oscillations of sunspot magnetic fields and nearby millimeter radio sources observed at 37 GHz were the main goals of this work. Ground-based radio telescope operated by Metsähovi Radio Observatory, Aalto University, Finland was used to obtain time series variations of radio intensity at 37 GHz frequency, as well as, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on-board the Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft was used to obtain the magnetic field time series variations. Lags (time delays) in the interval of 15–35 minutes were obtained by cross-correlation analysis of time series and by direct geometrical measurements of distances between the radio sources and nearby sunspots. These distances were in the interval of 11–24 Mm. Corresponding time delays were defined as the relation of these distances to the sound speed. Time delays obtained by two different independent methods turned to be very close. This fact confirms the interpretation of the phenomenon under the study as a process of propagation of disturbances from the slowly oscillating sunspot to the radio source with the sound speed.     

Underestimation of Snow Accumulation Rate in Central Antarctica (Vostok Station) Derived from Stake Measurements

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology - It is shown that the snow stake measurements in central Antarctica systematically underestimate the value of the snow build-up. Two methods for the calculation...     

Temporal and spatial patterns of modern climatic warming: case study of Northern Eurasia

Century-scale near-surface air temperature data from 744 weather stations in Russia and neighboring countries indicate that the temperature variations have distinct temporal patterns. Two periods, near the beginning and at the end of the 20th century, experienced the largest warming rates. Temperature changes in both periods were not uniform in time or space. We used statistical criteria and applied them to data at the weather stations to define a “tipping point” corresponding to the beginning of the modern climatic period. Results indicate that the position of this point depends on location, and in most cases falls into the interval from the early 1970s through the late 1980s. By means of spatial correlation analysis we delineated regions with coherent air temperature changes and calculated the region-specific rates and magnitudes of changes. We compared the distribution of regional tipping points in time and over space with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over northern Eurasia. We analyzed the 20th—early 21st century changes in the relative frequencies of the three circulation forms defined by Vangengheim-Girs classification, and found their qualitative correspondence with the spatial temperature patterns and spread of the tipping points in time. These results improve our knowledge about the regional structure and drivers of modern climate change in northern Eurasia, which is likely to hold the fingerprint of the anthropogenic signal. Findings of this study can be used to obtain insight into regional climatic changes in northern Eurasia over the next few decades.     

From desert to Mediterranean rangelands: will increasing drought and inter-annual rainfall variability affect herbaceous annual primary productivity?

Climate change is predicted to alter the rainfall regime in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin: total annual rainfall will decrease, while seasonal and inter-annual variation in rainfall will increase. Such changes in the rainfall regime could potentially lead to large-scale changes in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in the region. We conducted a data-driven evaluation of herbaceous ANPP along an entire regional rainfall gradient, from desert (90 mm MAR [Mean Annual Rainfall]) to Mesic-Mediterranean (780 mm MAR) ecosystems, using the largest database ever collated for herbaceous ANPP in Israel, with the aim of predicting consequences of climate change for rangeland productivity. This research revealed that herbaceous ANPP increases with increasing rainfall along the gradient, but strong dependence on rainfall was only apparent within dry sites. Rain Use Efficiency peaks at mid-gradient in Mediterranean sites without woody vegetation (560 and 610 mm MAR). Inter-annual coefficients of variation in rainfall and herbaceous ANPP decrease along the rainfall gradient up to ca. 500 mm MAR. Climate change is more likely to affect herbaceous ANPP of rangelands in the arid end of the rainfall gradient, requiring adaptation of rangeland management, while ANPP of rangelands in more mesic ecosystems is less responsive to variation in rainfall. We conclude that herbaceous ANPP in most Mediterranean rangelands is less vulnerable to climate change than generally predicted.     

Verification of mesoscale forecasts in the 2014 Olympic Games region for the first test period. Part I: Verification techniques and polygonal quality assessments of the COSMO model forecasts

Described is a system of verification of mesoscale hydrodynamic forecasts for the territory of Sochi-2014 Winter Olympic Games worked out within the framework of FROST-2014 international project. A technological line comprises the observational and model output databases, the computing verification complex, and the optional program aids for aggregation and visualization of products. The METv4.0 verification complex developed in cooperation with forecasting and research centers of the USA is used as a core. The effectiveness of the verification system is demonstrated with the COSMO model products for the period of December 1, 2011–March 31, 2012. Preliminary assessments of the model potential in forecasting the surface air temperature, the velocity of the scalar wind, and the sea-level air pressure are made with the quality score aggregation over the selected polygons of verification.     

Results of surface ozone monitoring in the atmosphere over Ulan-Ude

Presented are the results of surface ozone monitoring in the atmosphere over Ulan-Ude during the period from 2000 to 2012. Revealed are seasonal and diurnal variations of surface ozone. The analysis of the seasonal variability of surface ozone concentration indicates the presence of the clearly pronounced maximum in spring-summer period. A statistical model of forecasting single concentrations of the surface ozone is considered using the multiple regression analysis. Temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, wind speed, turbulence factor, temperature gradient, velocity of vertical flow, and concentrations of minor gas admixtures such as nitrogen oxides are used as predictors. Analyzed are statistical relationships, where observed ozone values are presented in the form of the regression function of the most significant predictors.     

Estimation of possible climatic changes of river runoff in the Northern Dvina River basin in the 21st century

Presented is a method of studying possible climate-driven changes of river runoff characteristics, according to which the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are used for computing the climate system impact, whereas the response of a watershed to given disturbance is estimated using the model of runoff formation in a river basin. The study is carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin. Estimates of possible changes (relative to the reference period) by the middle and late 21st century of such water regime characteristics as mean annual and maximum water discharge, as well as mean discharge values for the spring, summer-fall and winter seasons, are presented.     

Astrometric observations of Uranus with the Pulkovo Normal astrograph

The positions of Uranus were observed astrometrically with a CCD detector attached to the Pulkovo Normal astrograph (D/F = 0.33 m/3.5 m, S2C CCD, FOV 18′ × 16′). We provide the positions in the time interval from 2006 to 2011. Reduction of the CCD images was made with reference to the UCAC3 catalogue. The (O-C) values were calculated using the “Natural Satellites Service”. The results were compared with two contemporary theories of Uranus’s motion: INPOP10 and DE414/LE414. The obtained equatorial coordinates correspond well to both theories. On average, (O-C) over both coordinates relative to both theories are 0.1″.     

The Compatibility of Flare Temperatures Observed with AIA,GOES, and RHESSI

We test the compatibility and biases of multi-thermal flare DEM (differential emission measure) peak temperatures determined with AIA with those determined by GOES and RHESSI using the isothermal assumption. In a set of 149 M- and X-class flares observed during the first two years of the SDO mission, AIA finds DEM peak temperatures at the time of the peak GOES 1?–?8 Å flux to have an average of T _p=12.0±2.9 MK and Gaussian DEM widths of log₁₀(σ _T )=0.50±0.13. From GOES observations of the same 149 events, a mean temperature of T _p=15.6±2.4 MK is inferred, which is systematically higher by a factor of T _GOES/T _AIA=1.4±0.4. We demonstrate that this discrepancy results from the isothermal assumption in the inversion of the GOES filter ratio. From isothermal fits to photon spectra at energies of ?≈6?–?12 keV of 61 of these events, RHESSI finds the temperature to be higher still by a factor of T _RHESSI/T _AIA=1.9±1.0. We find that this is partly a consequence of the isothermal assumption. However, RHESSI is not sensitive to the low-temperature range of the DEM peak, and thus RHESSI samples only the high-temperature tail of the DEM function. This can also contribute to the discrepancy between AIA and RHESSI temperatures. The higher flare temperatures found by GOES and RHESSI imply correspondingly lower emission measures. We conclude that self-consistent flare DEM temperatures and emission measures require simultaneous fitting of EUV (AIA) and soft X-ray (GOES and RHESSI) fluxes.