A method to reduce the spin-up time of ocean models

The spin-up timescale in large-scale ocean models, i.e., the time it takes to reach an equilibrium state, is determined by the slow processes in the deep ocean and is usually in the order of a few thousand years. As these equilibrium states are taken as initial states for many calculations, much computer time is spent in the spin-up phase of ocean model computations. In this note, we propose a new approach which can lead to a very large reduction in spin-up time for quite a broad class of existing ocean models. Our approach is based on so-called Jacobian–Free Newton–Krylov methods which combine Newton’s method for solving non-linear systems with Krylov subspace methods for solving large systems of linear equations. As there is no need to construct the Jacobian matrices explicitly the method can in principle be applied to existing explicit time-stepping codes. To illustrate the method we apply it to a 3D planetary geostrophic ocean model with prognostic equations only for temperature and salinity. We compare the new method to the ‘ordinary’ spin-up run for several model resolutions and find a considerable reduction of spin-up time.     

Contribution of different generations of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) in the Dutch Wadden Sea to commercial fisheries: A dynamic energy budget approach

In this paper a contribution is made to the ongoing debate on which brown shrimp generation mostly sustains the autumn peak in coastal North Sea commercial fisheries: the generation born in summer, or the winter one. Since the two perspectives are based on different considerations on the growth timeframe from settlement till commercial size, the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory was applied to predict maximum possible growth under natural conditions. First, the parameters of the standard DEB model for Crangon crangon L. were estimated using available data sets. These were insufficient to allow a direct estimation, requiring a special protocol to achieve consistency between parameters. Next, the DEB model was validated by comparing simulations with published experimental data on shrimp growth in relation to water temperatures. Finally, the DEB model was applied to simulate growth under optimal food conditions using the prevailing water temperature conditions in the Wadden Sea. Results show clear differences between males and females whereby the fastest growth rates were observed in females. DEB model simulations of maximum growth in the Wadden Sea suggest that it is not the summer brood from the current year as Boddeke claimed, nor the previous winter generation as Kuipers and Dapper suggested, but more likely the summer generation from the previous year which contributes to the bulk of the fisheries recruits in autumn.     

Transverse structure of tidal and residual flow and sediment concentration in estuaries

An analytical and a numerical model are used to understand the response of velocity and sediment distributions over Gaussian-shaped estuarine cross-sections to changes in tidal forcing and water depth. The estuaries considered here are characterized by strong mixing and a relatively weak along-channel density gradient. It is also examined under what conditions the fast, two-dimensional analytical flow model yields results that agree with those obtained with the more complex three-dimensional numerical model. The analytical model reproduces and explains the main velocity and sediment characteristics in large parts of the parameter space considered (average tidal velocity amplitude, 0.1–1 m s^− 1 and maximum water depth, 10–60 m). Its skills are lower for along-channel residual flows if nonlinearities are moderate to high (strong tides in deep estuaries) and for transverse flows and residual sediment concentrations if the Ekman number is small (weak tides in deep estuaries). An important new aspect of the analytical model is the incorporation of tidal variations in the across-channel density gradient, causing a double circulation pattern in the transverse flow during slack tides. The gradient also leads to a new tidally rectified residual flow component via net advection of along-channel tidal momentum by the density-induced transverse tidal flow. The component features landward currents in the channel and seaward currents over the slopes and is particularly effective in deeper water. It acts jointly with components induced by horizontal density differences, Coriolis-induced tidal rectification and Stokes discharge, resulting in different along-channel residual flow regimes. The residual across-channel density gradient is crucial for the residual transverse circulation and for the residual sediment concentration. The clockwise density-induced circulation traps sediment in the fresher water over the left slope (looking up-estuary in the northern hemisphere). Model results are largely consistent with available field data of well-mixed estuaries.     

The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.     

Spatial distribution patterns of the peppery furrow shell Scrobicularia plana (da Costa, 1778) along the European coast: A review

The bivalve Scrobicularia plana is an important species of shallow water benthic communities with a wide geographic distribution but also with a general patchy pattern, i.e. irregular in occurrence and in density. This review aims to determine the processes responsible for the species' spatial distribution pattern based on the available information on S. plana. Although several pre- and post-settlement processes are believed to influence spatial patterns of marine invertebrates, the general patchy distribution of S. plana seems to be determined by the existence of specific environmental conditions during settlement. Factors such as temperature, salinity, sediment type, hydrographic conditions and predation affect settlement and spat survival and not one but a combination of factors seems to explain the species distribution pattern. Future work should focus on determining the scale of patchiness, using hierarchical sampling, as well as the connectivity between populations by analysing the population genetic structure.     

Modelling the influence of spatially varying hydrodynamics on the cross-sectional stability of double inlet systems

The cross-sectional stability of double inlet systems is investigated using an exploratory model that combines Escoffier’s stability concept for the evolution of the inlet’s cross-sectional area with a two-dimensional, depth-averaged (2DH) hydrodynamic model for tidal flow. The model geometry consists of four rectangular compartments, each with a uniform depth, associated with the ocean, tidal inlets and basin. The water motion, forced by an incoming Kelvin wave at the ocean’s open boundary and satisfying the linear shallow water equations on the f -plane with linearised bottom friction, is in each compartment written as a superposition of eigenmodes, i.e. Kelvin and Poincaré waves. A collocation method is employed to satisfy boundary and matching conditions. The analysis of resulting equilibrium configurations is done using flow diagrams. Model results show that internally generated spatial variations in the water motion are essential for the existence of stable equilibria with two inlets open. In the hydrodynamic model used in the paper, both radiation damping into the ocean and basin depth effects result in these necessary spatial variations. Coriolis effects trigger an asymmetry in the stable equilibrium cross-sectional areas of the inlets. Furthermore, square basin geometries generally correspond to significantly larger equilibrium values of the inlet cross-sections. These model outcomes result from a competition between a destabilising (caused by inlet bottom friction) and a stabilising mechanism (caused by spatially varying local pressure gradients over the inlets).     

3D noise mapping in urban areas

Noise mapping is the process of determining and visualizing noise impact on the environment in order to support environmental policies. Currently most noise impact studies are based on a 2D approach. The 3D output of noise simulation software is processed and visualized in 2D and combined with 2D topographical and other data, such as population distribution, to quantify the effects. The research described in this paper aims at improving visualization and assessment of noise impact on the environment by generating a 3D noise map in cases where 3D effects are relevant. Based on the specific demand, an approach is presented to generate a 3D noise map as a basis for noise impact studies. The proposed concept is proofed by applying it to a sample noise impact study. From experiences with the sample, it can be concluded that the 3D noise map offers significant insight in situations where 3D noise effects are relevant, i.e. in urban areas. Here, current 2D noise maps have limitations. In addition, more accurate assessment of noise impact is possible in particular when different floors of a building close to the noise source and/or behind noise barriers are considered. This paper also elaborates on accuracy aspects in all phases of noise modelling, including a presentation of initial experiments of 3D noise interpolation.