An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic analysis of peak response of MDOF systems with uncertain PSD function

The use of uniform hazard spectra which have the same probability of exceedance at different frequencies has been proposed for the future version of the National Building Code of Canada. Commonly used combination rules to estimate the peak responses of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom (MDOF) systems are the square root of sum of squares rule and the complete quadratic combination rule. However, the probability that the peak response of a MDOF system exceeds the one estimated by using these rules with the peak modal responses from the uniform hazard spectra cannot be inferred directly. The assessment of the probability of exceedance of the peak response of MDOF systems is presented by considering that the uncertainty in seismic excitation due to all potential earthquakes can be lumped in the power spectral density function of the ground acceleration with uncertain model parameters. This probability is evaluated based on the random vibration of linear systems and the first‐order reliability method. It is found that the under‐ or over‐estimations are less than about 5 or 10% if the modal contributions are not within 10–90% of, or not within 20–80% of, the absolute sum of the effective modal peak responses, respectively. Otherwise, severe under‐ or over‐estimation could result. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling evaporation using an artificial neural network algorithm

This paper investigates the prediction of Class A pan evaporation using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The ANN back propagation algorithm has been evaluated for its applicability for predicting evaporation from minimum climatic data. Four combinations of input data were considered and the resulting values of evaporation were analysed and compared with those of existing models. The results from this study suggest that the neural computing technique could be employed successfully in modelling the evaporation process from the available climatic data set. However, an analysis of the residuals from the ANN models developed revealed that the models showed significant error in predictions during the validation, implying loss of generalization properties of ANN models unless trained carefully. The study indicated that evaporation values could be reasonably estimated using temperature data only through the ANN technique. This would be of much use in instances where data availability is limited. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A non-linear stress-stiffness model for geomaterials at small to intermediate strains

A double exponential fitting model (DEFM) capable of expressing the non-linear stress-stiffness relationship of geomaterials has been proposed by Shibuya et al. (1997). The model comprises two material constants; the elastic stiffness at very small strains and the strength, together with other free parameters to determine the complete stress-stiffness relationship. In this paper, the capability of the original function used for DEFM in simulating the tangent stiffness-stress relationship of geomaterials is first discussed. Second, the methods for determining the free model parameters, as well as its conversion to obtain a stress-strain relationship are proposed. The applicability of DEFM to predicting non-linear stress-stiffness relationship is examined in detail in a total of forty-nine fitting cases of compression test data on sedimentary rock, artificial soft rock and soft clay. It is found that the DEFM is effective in expressing the non-linear stress-stiffness relationship of various kinds of geomaterials at small to intermediate strains, say less than 0.5%. The superiority of this model compared to other fitting models currently in use is also demonstrated in some of the fitting cases.     

Mudrocks from the Siberian Hypostratotype of the Riphean and Vendian: Chemistry,Sm–Nd Isotope Systematics of Sources,and Formation Stages

Lithology and Mineral Resources - The chemical composition and Nd isotope systematics were obtained for mudrocks (mudstones) from sections of the Siberian hypostratotype of the Riphean and Vendian...     

Kankan diamonds (Guinea) III: δ13C and nitrogen characteristics of deep diamonds

Diamonds from the Kankan area in Guinea formed over a large depth profile beginning within the cratonic mantle lithosphere and extending through the asthenosphere and transition zone into the lower mantle. The carbon isotopic composition, the concentration of nitrogen impurities and the nitrogen aggregation level of diamonds representing this entire depth range have been determined. Peridotitic and eclogitic diamonds of lithospheric origin from Kankan have carbon isotopic compositions ('¹³C: peridotitic -5.4 to -2.2‰; eclogitic -19.7 to -0.7‰) and nitrogen characteristics (N: peridotitic 17-648 atomic ppm; eclogitic 0-1,313 atomic ppm; aggregation from IaA to IaB) which are generally typical for diamonds of these two suites worldwide. Geothermobarometry of peridotitic and eclogitic inclusion parageneses (worldwide sources) indicates that both suites formed under very similar conditions within the cratonic lithosphere, which is not consistent with a derivation of diamonds with light carbon isotopic composition from subducted organic matter within subducting oceanic slabs. Diamonds containing majorite garnet inclusions fall to the isotopically heavy side ('¹³C: -3.1‰ to +0.9‰) of the worldwide diamond population. Nitrogen contents are low (0-126 atomic ppm) and one of the two nitrogen-bearing diamonds shows such a low level of nitrogen aggregation (30% B-centre) that it cannot have been exposed to ambient temperatures of the transition zone (̿,400 °C) for more than 0.2 Ma. This suggests rapid upward transport and formation of some Kankan diamonds pene-contemporaneous to Cretaceous kimberlite activity. Similar to these diamonds from the asthenosphere and the transition zone, lower mantle diamonds show a small shift towards isotopic heavy compositions (-6.6 to -0.5‰, mode at -3.5‰). As already observed for other mines, the nitrogen contents of lower mantle diamonds were below detection (using FTIRS). The mutual shift of sublithospheric diamonds towards isotopic heavier compositions suggests a common carbon source, which may have inherited an isotopic heavy composition from a component consisting of subducted carbonates.     

The Mw = 6.0, 7 September 1999 Athens Earthquake

On 7 September 1999 at 11:56 GMT a destructive earthquake (M_w = 6.0) occurred close to Athens (Greece). The rupture process is examined using data from the Cornet local permanent network, as well as teleseismic recordings. Data recorded by a temporary seismological network were analyzed to study the aftershock sequence. The mainshock was relocated at 38.105°N, 23.565°E, about 20 km northwest of Athens. Four foreshocks were also relocated close to the mainshock. The modeling of teleseismic P and SH waves provides a well-constrained focal mechanism of the mainshock (strike = 105°, dip = 55° and rake = -80°) at a depth of 8 km and a seismic moment M₀ = 1.010²⁵ dyn·cm. The obtained fault plane solution represents normal faulting indicating an almost north-south extension. More than 3500 aftershocks were located, 1813 of which present RMS < 0.1 s and ERH, ERZ < 1.0 km. Two main clusters were distinguished, while the depth distribution is concentrated between 2 and 11 km. Over 1000 fault plane solutions of aftershocks were constrained, the majority of which also correspond to N–S extension. No surface breaks were observed but the fault plane solution of the mainshock is in agreement with the tectonics of the area and with the focal mechanisms obtained by aftershocks. The hypocenter of the mainshock is located on the deep western edge of the fault plane. The relocated epicenter coincides with the fringe that represents the highest deformation observed on the differential interferometric image. The calculated source duration is 5 sec, while the estimated dimensions of the fault are 15 km length and 10 km width. The source process is characterized by unilateral eastward rupture propagation, towards the city of Athens. An evident stop phase observed in the recordings of the Cornet local stations is interpreted as a barrier caused by the Aegaleo Mountain.     

Structure of gas flows in Z And in quiescence and during outbursts

A new mechanism is proposed to account for transitions between the quiescent and active states of symbiotic stars. A numerical study of the gas dynamics of the flows in the symbiotic star Z And shows that even small variations in the velocity of the wind from the cool giant can abruptly change the flow structure near the hot component. Such changes alter the accretion regime as the wind velocity increases: disk accretion makes a transition to accretion from the flow. Our calculations indicate that the accretion rate increases by a factor of several tens over a short time interval (～0.1 of the orbital period) during the rearrangement of the flow, when the accretion disk is destroyed.