Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.     

Celestite formation, bacterial sulphate reduction and carbonate cementation of Eocene reefs and basinal sediments (Igualada, NE Spain)

Petrographic and geochemical studies of an Upper Eocene reef and associated basinal sediments from the mixed carbonate–siliciclastic fill of the south‐eastern Pyrenean foreland basin near Igualada (NE Spain) provide new insights into the evolution of subsurface hydrology during the restriction of a marine basin. The reef deposits are located on delta‐lobe sandstones and prodelta marls, which are overlain by hypersaline carbonates and Upper Eocene evaporites. Authigenic celestite (SrSO₄) is an important component in the observed diagenetic sequences. Celestite is a significant palaeohydrological indicator because its low solubility constrains transportation of Sr²⁺ and SO₄^2? in the same diagenetic fluid. Stable isotopic analyses of carbonates in the reef indicate that meteoric recharge was responsible for aragonite stabilization and calcite cementation. Sulphur and oxygen isotope geochemistry of the celestite demonstrates that it formed from residual sulphate after bacterial sulphate reduction, but also requires that there was a prior episode of sulphate recycling. Meteoric water reaching the reef and basinal areas was most probably charged with SO₄^2? from the dissolution of younger Upper Eocene marine evaporites. This sulphate, combined with organic matter present in the sediments, fuelled bacterial sulphate reduction in the meteoric palaeoaquifer. Strontium for celestite precipitation was partly derived in situ from dissolution of aragonite corals in the reef and basinal counterparts. However, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr data also suggest that Sr²⁺ was partly derived from dissolution of overlying evaporites. Mixing of these two fluids promoted celestite formation. The carbonate stable isotopic data suggest that the local meteoric water was enriched in ¹⁸O compared with that responsible for stabilization of other reefs along the basin margin. Furthermore, meteoric recharge at Igualada post‐dated evaporite deposition in the basin, whereas other parts of the same reef complex were stabilized before evaporite formation. This discrepancy resulted from the spatial distribution of continental siliciclastic units that acted as groundwater conduits.     

Cretaceous and Tertiary terrane accretion in the Cordillera Occidental of the Andes of Ecuador

New field, geochronological, geochemical and biostratigraphical data indicate that the central and northern parts of the Cordillera Occidental of the Andes of Ecuador comprise two terranes. The older (Pallatanga) terrane consists of an early to late (?) Cretaceous oceanic plateau suite, late Cretaceous marine turbidites derived from an unknown basaltic to andesitic volcanic source, and a tectonic mélange of probable late Cretaceous age. The younger (Macuchi) terrane consists of a volcanosedimentary island arc sequence, derived from a basaltic to andesitic source. A previously unidentified, regionally important dextral shear zone named the Chimbo-Toachi shear zone separates the two terranes. Regional evidence suggests that the Pallatanga terrane was accreted to the continental margin (the already accreted Cordillera Real) in Campanian times, producing a tectonic mélange in the suture zone. The Macuchi terrane was accreted to the Pallatanga terrane along the Chimbo-Toachi shear zone during the late Eocene, probably in a dextral shear regime. The correlation of Cretaceous rocks and accretionary events in the Cordillera Occidental of Ecuador and Colombia remains problematical, but the late Eocene event is recognised along the northern Andean margin.     

Aeromagnetic signatures over western Marie Byrd Land provide insight into magmatic arc basement, mafic magmatism and structure of the Eastern Ross Sea Rift flank

Aeromagnetic signatures over the Edward VII Peninsula (E7) provide new insight into the largely ice-covered and unexplored eastern flank of the Ross Sea Rift (RSR). Positive anomalies, 10–40 km in wavelength and with amplitudes ranging from 50 to 500 nT could reveal buried Late Devonian(?)–Early Carboniferous Ford Granodiorite plutons. This is suggested by similar magnetic signature over exposed, coeval Admiralty Intrusives of the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM). Geochemical data from mid-Cretaceous Byrd Coast Granite, contact metamorphic effects on Swanson Formation and hornblende-bearing granitoid dredge samples strengthen this magnetic interpretation, making alternative explanations less probable. These magnetic anomalies over formerly adjacent TAM and western Marie Byrd Land (wMBL) terranes resemble signatures typically observed over magnetite-rich magmatic arc plutons. Shorter wavelength (5 km) 150 nT anomalies could speculatively mark mid-Cretaceous mafic dikes of the E7, similar to those exposed over the adjacent Ford Ranges. Anomalies with amplitudes of 100–360 nT over the Sulzberger Bay and at the margin of the Sulzberger Ice Shelf likely reveal mafic Late Cenozoic(?) volcanic rocks emplaced along linear rift fabric trends. Buried volcanic rock at the margin of the interpreted half-graben-like “Sulzberger Ice Shelf Block” is modelled in the Kizer Island area. The volcanic rock is marked by a coincident positive Bouguer gravity anomaly. Late Cenozoic volcanic rocks over the TAM, in the RSR, and beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibit comparable magnetic anomaly signature reflecting regional West Antarctic Rift fabric. Interpreted mafic magmatism of the E7 is likely related to mid-Cretaceous and Late Cenozoic regional crustal extension and possible mantle plume activity over wMBL. Magnetic lineaments of the E7 are enhanced in maximum horizontal gradient of pseudo-gravity, vertical derivative and 3D Euler Deconvolution maps. Apparent vertical offsets in magnetic basement at the location of the lineaments and spatially associated mafic dikes and volcanic rocks result from 2.5D magnetic modelling. A rift-related fault origin for the magnetic lineaments, segmenting the E7 region into horst and graben blocks, is proposed by comparison with offshore seismic reflection, marine gravity, on-land gravity, radio-echo sounding, apatite fission track data and structural geology. The NNW magnetic lineament, which we interpret to mark the eastern RSR shoulder, forms the western margin of the “Alexandra Mountains horst”. This fundamental aeromagnetic feature lies on strike with the Colbeck Trough, a prominent NNW half-graben linked to Late Cretaceous(?) and Cenozoic(?) faulting in the eastern RSR. East–west and north–north–east to NE magnetic trends are also imaged. Magnetic trends, if interpreted as reflecting the signature of rift-related normal faults, would imply N–S to NE crustal extension followed by later northwest–southeast directed extension. NW–SE extension would be compatible with Cenozoic(?) oblique RSR rifting. Previous structural data from the Ford Ranges have, however, been interpreted to indicate that both Cretaceous and Cenozoic extensions were N–S to NE–SW directed.     

Transient foundation solution of saturated soil to impulsive concentrated loading

The transient dynamic response of saturated soil under suddenly applied normal and horizontal concentrated loading is studied in this paper. The behavior of saturated soil is governed by Biot's consolidation theory. The general solutions for Biot equations of equilibrium are derived in terms of displacements and variations of fluid volume, using Laplace–Hankel integral transforms. The solutions in the time domain can be evaluated by numerical inverse Laplace–Hankel transforms. Selected numerical results for displacements, stresses, and pore pressures are presented. Comparisons with existing closed-form solutions for the elastic half-space are made to confirm the accuracy of the present solutions. The solutions can be used to study a variety of transient wave propagation problems and dynamical interactions between saturated soil and structures.     

Simultaneous radio and optical observations of the mid-latitude atmospheric response to a major geomagnetic storm of 6–8 April 2000

Basic properties of the mid-latitude traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) during the maximum phase of a major magnetic storm of 6–8 April 2000 are shown. Total electron content (TEC) variations were studied by using data from GPS receivers located in Russia and Central Asia. The nightglow response to this storm at mesopause and termospheric altitudes was also measured by optical instruments FENIX located at the observatory of the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (51.9°N,103.0°E), and MORTI located at the observatory of the Institute of Ionosphere (43.2°N, 77.0°E). Observations of the O (557.7 and 630.0 nm) emissions originating from atmospheric layers centered at altitudes of 90 and 250 km were carried out at Irkutsk and of the O₂(b¹∑_g⁺−X³∑_g⁻) (0-1) emission originating from an atmospheric layer centered at altitude of 94 km was carried out at Almaty. Our radio and optical measurement network observed a storm-induced solitary large-scale wave with duration of 1 h and a wave front width of no less than 5000 km, while it traveled equatorward with a velocity of 200 m/s from 62°N to 38°N geographic latitude. The TEC disturbance, basically displaying an electron content depression in the maximum of the F2 region, reveals a good correlation with growing nightglow emission, the temporal shift between the TEC and emission variation maxima being different for different altitudes. A comparison of the auroral oval parameters with dynamic spectra of TEC variations and optical 630 nm emissions in the frequency range 0.4–4 mHz (250–2500 s periods) showed that as the auroral oval expands into mid-latitudes, also does the region with a developed medium-sale and small-scale TEC structure.     

Distribution of Mantle Up-welling Determined from Plate Motions: A Case for Large-scale Bénard Convection

—?The number and geometric distribution of putative mantle up-welling centers and the associated convection cell boundaries are determined from the lithospheric plate motions as given by the 14 Euler poles of the observational NUVEL model. For an assumed distribution of up-welling centers (called “cell-cores”) the corresponding cell boundaries are constructed by a Voronoi division of the spherical surface; the resulting polygons are called “Bénard cells.” By assuming the flow-kinematics within a cell, the viscous coupling between the flow and the plates is estimated, and the Euler poles for the plates are computed under the assumption of zero-net-torque. The positions of the cell-cores are optimized for the HS2-NUVEL1 Euler poles by a method of successive approximation (“subplex”); convergence to one of many local minima occurred typically after ～20,000 iterations. Cell-cores associated with the fourteen HS2-NUVEL1 Euler poles converge to a relatively small number of locations (8 to 10, depending on interpretation), irrespective of the number of convection cells submitted for optimized distribution (from 6 to 50). These locations are correlated with low seismic propagation velocities in tomography, uniformly occur within hotspot provinces, and may specifically be associated with the Hawaiian, Iceland, Reunion/Kerguelen (Indian Ocean), Easter Island, Melanesia/Society Islands (South Pacific), Azores/Cape Verde/Canary Islands, Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic), Balleny Islands, and possibly Yellowstone hotspots. It is shown that arbitrary Euler poles cannot occur in association with mantle Bénard convection, irrespective of the number and the distribution of convection cells. Nevertheless, eight of the observational Euler poles – including the five that are accurately determined in HS2-NUVEL1 (Australia, Cocos, Juan de Fuca, Pacific, and Philippine) – are “Bénard-valid” (i.e., can be explained by our Bénard model). Five of the remaining six observational poles must be relocated within their error-ellipses to become Bénard-valid; the Eurasia pole alone appears to be in error by ～115°, and may actually lie near 40°N, 154°E. The collective results strongly suggest Bénard-like mantle convection cells, and that basal shear tractions are the primary factor in determining the directions of the plate motions as given by the Euler poles. The magnitudes of the computed Euler vectors show, however, that basal shear cannot be the exclusive driving force of plate tectonics, and suggest force contributions (of comparable magnitude for perhaps half of the plates) from the lithosphere itself, specifically subducting slab-pull and (continental) collision drag, which are provisionally evaluated. The relationship of the putative mantle Bénard polygons to dynamic chaos and turbulent flow is discussed.     

How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides

A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm³ Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and t_f) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management.