Once more on quasar periodicities

In an earlier paper Arp, Bi, Chu and Zhu investigated various quasar samples and recognized a periodicity of remarkable degree in them. Their conclusion was that the existence of such a periodicity is a counterevidence against the cosmological origin of quasar redshifts. Since this question is of great importance in a cosmological context, here we reanalyze some of the samples together with a galaxy sample of the pencil-beam survey of Broadhurstet al. Our result is that on the plane of cosmological parameters (₀, ₀) there is a non-negligible region where two quasar samples and the galaxy sample are simultaneously fairly periodic. Pure periodicity is still compatible with cosmological principles, at least on length scales much longer than the period length. So the regularities can fit into a cosmological context.     

Motions in the solar atmosphere associated with the white light flare of 11 July 1978

Series of white light heliograms and oft- and on-band H filtergrams have been obtained, with an average spatial resolution of 1, to study the flare active McMath region 15403 on 11 July, 1978. A great number of accurate heliographic positions were determined for the umbrae, the white light flare patches and several bright H flare knots, as well as along the principal zero filament and an arch prominence. Using the measured heliographic coordinates of these objects their motions could be analyzed in some detail. The velocities of several different objects could be deduced from the coordinates. Since the heliocentric angle of the region was about 45°, the variation in apparent heliographic coordinates also enabled some variations in heights to be determined.It is pointed out that the flare when fully developed, consisted almost entirely of loops. The zero filament which was activated prior to the flare ran between two umbrae of common penumbra and opposite polarity, one belonging to an old, the other to a new spot group. The white light flare developed on both sides of the filament where it passed between these two umbrae; it was also the place where the flare started. Observational evidence appears to indicate that the erupted filament re-formed from below.An indication has been found that there was a link between the motion of some umbrae and the major flare occurrence.     

Solar-type stars in Cepheus OB 2: Hα emission stars and IRAS point sources

A survey for emission line stars was carried out in 1980 with the Schmidt telescope of Konkoly Observatory in the region of IC 1396 (Kun, 1986a, hereafter referred to as Paper I). This work was aimed at a preliminary mapping of the probable medium mass members of the association Cepheus OB 2. The stars of the region have been followed since then with the same telescope in order to obtain a more complete view on the stellar content of this giant star-forming region. The common variability of the H emission strength makes the sense of repeating such surveys. The new survey resulted in the discovery of 65 further emission stars. Equatorial coordinates and finding charts are given for them.PhotographicBVRI photometry was carried out for all known emission stars of the field. The colourmagnitude and two-colour diagrams derived from theB, V, R, andI magnitudes show that these stars are probably F-G-type (1.5M <M<3M ), partly pre-Main-Sequence members of Cep OB 2, whereas a few of them may be distant red giants.The youngest objects of the region can be found among the IRAS point sources. Their properties are discussed on the basis of IRAS data alone.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

A decade of change in the Skidaway River estuary I. Hydrography and nutrients

The Skidaway River estuary is a tidally-dominated subtropical estuary in the southeastern USA surrounded by extensiveSpartina salt marshes. Weekly smapling at high and low tide began in 1986 for hydrography, nutrients, chlorophylla, particulate matter, and microbial and plankton biomass and composition; hydrographic and nutrient data during 1986–1996 are reported here. Salinity varied inversely with river discharge and exhibited variability at all time scales but with no long-term trend. Water temperature typically ranged over 25°C and was without apparent long-term frend. Seasonal cycles in concentrations of NO₃, NH₄, PO₄, Si(OH)₄, and DON were observed, with annual maxima generally occurring in late summer. Superimposed on seasonal cycles, all five nutrients exhibited steady increases in minimum, mean, and maximum concentrations; mean concentrations increased c. 50–150% during the decade. Nutrient concentrations were highly correlated with water temperature over the ten-year period, but weakly related to salinity and discharge. Nutrients were strongly correlated with one another, and the relative ratios among inorganic nutrients showed little long-term trend. Correlations among temperature and nutrient concentrations exhibited considerable inter-annual variability. Major spikes in organic and inorganic nutrient concentrations coincided with significant rainfall events; concentrations increased hyperbolically with rainfall. Although pristine compared to more heavily impacted waterways primarily outside the region, residential development and population density have been increasing rapidly during the past 15–20 years. Land use is apparently altering nutrient loading over the long-term (months-years), and superimposed on this are stochastic meteorological events that accelerate these changes over the short term (days-weeks).     

Kosa (yellow sand) components in precipitation collected at central Japan

In east Asia, acidic gases derived from fossil fuel combustion have increased in the past decades. On the other hand, the Asian dust, also called Kosa (yellow sand) is transported following windstorms from arid lands in the Asian continent. Many researchers have been interested in the reaction between acidic aerosols and Kosa aerosols as well as the long-range transport of these emissions. To investigate the characteristics of chemical components in precipitation on a long-term basis over Japan, precipitation was sequentially collected from April 1984 to March 1997 at Kanazawa located near the coast of the Sea of Japan. Precipitation samples were collected at 1 mm intervals for the first 5 mm rainfall and all volume of rainwater after 6 mm for all precipitation events with an automatic wet only precipitation collector. According to the analyses of precipitation including Kosa aerosols during Kosa periods, the reaction in the air between Kosa and acidic components during the long-range transport was discussed.     

Upper Oligocene-Lower Miocene shallowing-upwardlacustrine sequences controlled by periodic and non-periodic processes(Ebro Basin, northeastern Spain)

The lacustrine facies from two sections (Candasnos and Fraga) ofthe Oligocene-Miocene Torrente de Cinca lithostratigraphic Unit in thecentral part of the Ebro Basin (Spain) have been analysed to determine theinfluence of orbital parameters in lacustrine sedimentation. The unit ispredominantly composed of limestones and marls, and represents a shallowlacustrine freshwater system. The sedimentological features of the faciesstudied demonstrate that the lower part of the Candasnos section representsoffshore lacustrine subenvironments whereas the upper part, and the whole ofthe Fraga section, characterise marginal lacustrine areas. Series of stratalthickness variations of limestone, marl, and limestone/marl couplets fromboth sections have been analysed using spectral analysis. This shows thatinformation corresponding to periodic cycles only appears in the offshorefacies, that is to say, in the lower part of Candasnos section, and disappearsin the marginal facies where non-periodic cycles exist. Furthermore, thespectral analysis of the offshore facies highlights the existence of a peak inthe power spectrum with a period of around 7 (6.8 to 7.8) that can berecognised in the field as shallowing-upward lacustrine sequences.Magnetostratigraphic data from the Candasnos section allow us to establish atime span of 2,808 years for the limestone/marl couplet from the lower partof this section, and between 19,000 and 22,000 years for the periodic cycleidentified, thus representing the climatic precession cycle. Shallowingsequences from marginal areas do not correspond with any periodiccycle.     

Fine structure of Pn velocity beneath Sichuan-Yunnan region

We use 23298 Pn arrival-time data from Chinese national and provincial earthquake bulletins to invert fine structure of Pn velocity and anisotropy at the top of the mantle beneath the Sichuan-Yunnan and its adjacent region. The results suggest that the Pn velocity in this region shows significant lateral variation; the Pn velocity varies from 7.7 to 8.3 km/s. The Pn-velocity variation correlates well with the tectonic activity and heat flow of the region. Low Pn velocity is observed in southwest Yunnan, Tengchong volcano area, and the Panxi tectonic area. These areas have very active seismicity and tectonic activity with high surface heat flow. On the other hand, high Pn velocity is observed in some stable regions, such as the central region of the Yangtze Platform; the most pronounced high velocity area is located in the Sichuan Basin, south of Chengdu. Pn anisotropy shows a complex pattern of regional deformation. The Pn fast direction shows a prominent clockwise rotation pattern from east of the Tibetan block to the Sichuan-Yunnan diamond block to southwest Yunnan, which may be related to southeastward escape of the Tibetan Plateau material due to the collision of the Indian Plate to the Eurasia Plate. Thus there appears to be strong correlation between the crustal deformation and the upper mantle structure in the region. The delay times of events and stations show that the crust thickness decreases from the Tibetan Plateau to eastern China, which is consistent with the results from deep seismic sounding.