Stochastic Modeling of the Van Lake Monthly Level Fluctuations in Turkey

Summary  Planning, design, construction and operation of lakeshore structures require information about the future likely extremes of the lake levels at a given risk percentage. Alternative future likely synthetic sequences can be numerically generated provided that the underlying generating mechanism of the lake level fluctuation phenomenon is identified. Simple linear and periodic nonlinear models are used for modeling the deterministic part in the lake level records. Linear trend is eliminated from the original lake level historic data by regression line technique. The nonlinear part needs two stages for its identification. First Fourier series is applied to model interannual periodicities in the lake level fluctuation series and then monthly standardization procedure is applied for seasonal periodic nonlinear component modeling. A second order Markov model is found suitable for the remaining stochastic parts. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van monthly level data in eastern Turkey. Suitable models are identified and their parameters are estimated for trend, periodic and stochastic parts. Likely, synthetic lake levels are generated by the stochastic model and hence lake level extreme values are depicted for the next 2, 6, 12, 24, 60 and 120 months with risk calculations. Such risk calculations take into account the stochastic characteristics of the lake level fluctuations only. The deterministic parts as linear trends and periodicities are added to the stochastic extreme events for the actual simulation of the lake levels. The model presented in this paper is not for time prediction of future lake levels but rather for the simulation of possible equally likely extreme lake level value occurrences over any desired future period. Received April 22, 1998/Revised July 28, 1999     

冰碛物ESR测年与天山乌鲁木齐河源末次冰期系列

采用ESR方法，对天山乌鲁木齐河源末次冰期的冰碛石英砂进行了测年，下望峰组冰碛层的年代与前人推测的年代不同，是50～70ka BP末次冰期早阶段形成的，分布下限可达海拔2300m左右的红五月桥附近，与AMS的测年结果相比，末次冰期晚阶段底碛的ESR年代与AMS的年代相当，而冰上融出碛ESR年代与AMS的年代相差较大，认为冰下的压碎和磨蚀作用可能导致冰碛中石英砂的ESR信号归零，从而使底碛的ESR测年成为可能。     

Biosorption of mercury(II), cadmium(II) and lead(II) ions from aqueous system by microalgae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii immobilized in alginate beads

The potential use of the immobilized microalgae (in Ca-alginate) of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii to remove Hg(II), Cd(II) and Pb(II) ions from aqueous solutions was evaluated using bare Ca-alginate bead as a control system. Ca-alginate beads containing immobilized microalgae were incubated for the uniform growth at 22 °C for 5 days. Effects of pH, temperature, initial concentration of metal ions and biosorbent dosages on the adsorption of Hg(II), Cd(II) and Pb(II) ions were studied. Adsorption of Hg(II), Cd(II) and Pb(II) ions on the immobilized microalgae showed highest values at around pH 5.0 to 6.0. The adsorption equilibrium was represented with Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption isotherms. The adsorption of these ions on the immobilized microalgae followed second-order kinetics and equilibrium was established in about 60 min. The temperature change in the range of 5–40 °C did not affect the adsorption capacities of the immobilized microalgae. The immobilized-algal systems can be regenerated using 2 M NaCl for Hg(II), Cd(II) and Pb(II) ions.     

硝化和反硝化对湖泊有机质沉积成岩前降解作用的研究

贵州红枫湖10月叶绿素a(chla)和NO3^-含量均比7月明显降低。利用氮同位素等数据对此进行了研究，结果表明，含量的降低是由不同的生物地球化学作用引起的。chla含量的降低主要是水体中有机质降解(硝化)所致，而NO3^- 含量的降低则是缺氧季节湖泊沉积物表层反硝化作用的结果。缺氧季节表层水体仍然能发生较强烈的硝化作用。硝化作用和反硝化作用分别发生在热分层湖泊的上层和沉积物表层。反硝化作用不仅消耗大量的NO3^-，而且还造成了一定量的有机质降解(有机碳作为电子受体)。据估算，在红枫湖后五测点和大坝测点，总有机碳在沉积成岩前分别降解了78％和68％。其中由硝化作用引起的总有机质降解量分别为35．8%和25．9％，而反硝化作用则分别为13．4％和9．2％。     

北京市突发地质灾害监测预警信息平台功能需求研究

功能需求是地质灾害监测预警信息平台的首要任务,对整个平台具有举足轻重的作用。本文从数据管理、动态监测,预警分析、会商上报、应急管理、三维展示和系统管理7个方面,介绍了北京市突发地质灾害监测预警信息平台的功能需求,其中预警分析中模型的构建和实现,是预警结果科学性和准确性的关键步骤。平台的建设可实现北京市地质灾害防治网络化运作模式,提升地质灾害防治日常管理,监测预警.决策支持和应急处置能力。     

Seismological investigations of fireworks factory explosions in Hendek-Sakarya (Turkey)

Journal of Seismology - On July 3, 2020, a sequence of explosions occurred in the Hendek fireworks factory in Sakarya, Turkey. The explosion caused great material damage and loss of life. In this...     

Formation and emplacement ages of the SSZ‐type Neotethyan ophiolites in Central Anatolia,Turkey: palaeotectonic implications

Isolated outcrops of ophiolitic rocks, termed the Central Anatolian Ophiolites, are found as allochthonous bodies in the Central Anatolian Crystalline Complex, that represent the metamorphosed passive northern edge of the Tauride–Anatolide Platform, central Turkey. In terms of pseudostratigraphic relationships of the magmatic units and their chemical designation, the Central Anatolian Ophiolites exhibit a supra‐subduction zone (fore‐arc) setting within the Vardar–İzmir–Ankara–Erzincan segment of the Neotethys. The epi‐ophiolitic sedimentary cover of the Central Anatolian Ophiolites is generally characterized by epiclastic volcanogenic deep‐sea sediments and debris flows intercalated with pelagic units. The richest and most significant planktonic foraminiferal association recorded from the lowest pelagic members infer a formation age of early–middle Turonian to early Santonian. K/Ar ages of post‐collisional granitoids (81–65 Ma) intruding the basement rocks as well as the Central Anatolian Ophiolites suggest a post‐early Santonian to pre‐middle Campanian emplacement age. The marked high volume of epiclastic volcanogenic sediments intercalated with the pelagics of the Central Anatolian Ophiolite is suggestive of rifting in a marginal sea adjacent to a volcanic arc. Penecontemporaneous tectonism is reflected in repetitions in the stratigraphy and in debris flows, which result from major slides and mass‐gravity reworking of pre‐existing units and of arc‐derived volcanics and sediments. Correlating the rock units and formation/obduction ages of the Central Anatolian Ophiolites with further supra‐subduction zone type ophiolites in the eastern (Turkey) and western (Greece) parts of the Vardar–İzmir–Ankara–Erzincan segment of Neotethys we conclude that the intraoceanic subduction in the east is definitely younger and the closure history of this segment is more complex than previously suggested. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.