Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.     

Dams on the Mekong River: Lost fish protein and the implications for land and water resources

Proposed dam construction in the Lower Mekong Basin will considerably reduce fish catch and place heightened demands on the resources necessary to replace lost protein and calories. Additional land and water required to replace lost fish protein with livestock products are modelled using land and water footprint methods. Two main scenarios cover projections of these increased demands and enable the specific impact from the main stem dam proposals to be considered in the context of basin-wide hydropower development. Scenario 1 models 11 main stem dams and estimates a 4–7% increase overall in water use for food production, with much higher estimations for countries entirely within the Basin: Cambodia (29–64%) and Laos (12–24%). Land increases run to a 13–27% increase. In scenario 2, covering another 77 dams planned in the Basin by 2030 and reservoir fisheries, projections are much higher: 6–17% for water, and 19–63% for land. These are first estimates of impacts of dam development on fisheries and will be strongly mediated by cultural and economic factors. The results suggest that basic food security is potentially at a high risk of disruption and therefore basin stakeholders should be fully engaged in strategies to offset these impacts.     

Community‐Derived Standards for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb Geochronology – Uncertainty Propagation,Age Interpretation and Data Reporting

The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess ²³⁰Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation.     

Modelling tropical cyclone risks for present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques

Tropical cyclones and their devastating impacts are of great concern to coastal communities globally. An appropriate approach integrating climate change scenarios at local scales is essential for producing detailed risk models to support cyclone mitigation measures. This study developed a simple cyclone risk-modelling approach under present and future climate change scenarios using geospatial techniques at local scales, and tested using a case study in Sarankhola Upazila from coastal Bangladesh. Linear storm-surge models were developed up to 100-year return periods. A local sea level rise scenario of 0.34?m for the year 2050 was integrated with surge models to assess the climate change impact. The resultant storm-surge models were used in the risk-modelling procedures. The developed risk models successfully identified the spatial extent and levels of risk that match with actual extent and levels within an acceptable limit of deviation. The result showed that cyclone risk areas increased with the increase of return period. The study also revealed that climate change scenario intensified the cyclone risk area by 5–10% in every return period. The findings indicate this approach has the potential to model cyclone risk in other similar coastal environments for developing mitigation plans and strategies.     

Discrete element modelling of extensional,growth, fault‐propagation folds

Extensional fault‐propagation folds are now recognised as being an important part of basin structure and development. They have a very distinctive expression, often presenting an upward‐widening monocline, which is subsequently breached by an underlying, propagating fault. Growth strata, if present, are thought to provide a crucial insight into the manner in which such structures grow in space and time. However, interpreting their stratigraphic signal is neither straightforward nor unique. Both analogue and numerical models can provide some insight into fold growth. In particular, the trishear kinematic model has been widely adopted to explain many aspects of the evolution and geometry of such fault‐propagation folds. However, in some cases the materials/rheologies used to represent the cover do not reproduce the key geometric/stratigraphic features of such folds seen in nature. This appears to arise from such studies not addressing adequately the very heterogenous mechanical stratigraphy seen in many sedimentary covers. In particular, flexural slip between beds/layers is often not explicitly modelled but, paradoxically, it appears to be an important deformation mechanism operative in such settings. Here, I present a 2D discrete element model of extensional fault‐propagation folding which explicitly includes flexural slip between predefined sedimentary units or layers in the cover. The model also includes growth strata and shows how they may reflect the various evolutionary stages of fold and fault growth. When flexural slip is included in the modelling scheme, the resultant breached monoclines and their growth strata are strikingly similar to some of those seen in nature. Results are also compared with those obtained using simple, homogeneous, frictional‐cohesive and elastic cover materials. Both un‐lithified and lithified growth strata are considered and clearly show that, rather than just being passive recorders of structural evolution, growth strata can themselves have an important effect on fault‐related fold growth. Implications for the evolution of and strain within, the resultant growth structures are discussed. A final focus of this study is the relationship that trishear might have with the upward‐widening zone of flexural slip activation away from a fault tip singularity.     

Sampling the vertical particle flux in the upper water column using a large diameter free-drifting NetTrap adapted to an Indented Rotating Sphere sediment trap

Further development of the large, surface-tethered sediment trap (NetTrap) employed as part of the MedFlux program is described whereby the large collection capacity of the NetTrap is combined with an Indented Rotating Sphere/Sample Carousel (IRSC) sediment trap (IRSC–NT). This trap is capable of collecting particle flux either in a time series or settling velocity mode; settling velocity mode allows the collection of particles that fall within discrete settling velocity intervals. During short field deployments in the Mediterranean Sea the IRSC–NT configured in the settling velocity mode successfully collected unpoisoned samples for chemical and microbiological experiments. In addition to the development of the IRSC–NT, particle-settling behavior above and below the swimmer-excluding IRS valve was tested during on-deck experiments using a specially constructed water-tight trap. Chemical analyses of settling materials (published elsewhere) suggested that separation of particles by settling velocity was achieved. However, due to the motion of the ship, it was not possible to directly measure particle-settling velocities within the trap. Particle release from the IRS did not bias the apparent settling velocity spectrum. Rotation of the IRS did not engender turbulence at the surface of the sphere or within the skewed funnel below. Tests of different ball designs over the course of the MedFlux program showed that a “ridge and saddle” pattern was optimal for efficiently transferring particles under the IRS seal while still reducing swimmer entrance to the collection funnel. The large size of the IRSC–NT did not prevent it from drifting effectively with the current. Several modifications of the present design are proposed that should improve the accuracy of the settling velocity measurements.     

MedFlux: Investigations of particle flux in the Twilight Zone

The MedFlux project was devised to determine and model relationships between organic matter and mineral ballasts of sinking particulate matter in the ocean. Specifically we investigated the ballast ratio hypothesis, tested various commonly used sampling and modeling techniques, and developed new technologies that would allow better characterization of particle biogeochemistry. Here we describe the rationale for the project, the biogeochemical provenance of the DYFAMED site, the international support structure, and highlights from the papers published here. Additional MedFlux papers can be accessed at the MedFlux web site (http://msrc.sunysb.edu/MedFlux/).     

Measuring impact crater depth throughout the solar system

One important, almost ubiquitous, tool for understanding the surfaces of solid bodies throughout the solar system is the study of impact craters. While measuring a distribution of crater diameters and locations is an important tool for a wide variety of studies, so too is measuring a crater's “depth.” Depth can inform numerous studies including the strength of a surface and modification rates in the local environment. There is, however, no standard data set, definition, or technique to perform this data-gathering task, and the abundance of different definitions of “depth” and methods for estimating that quantity can lead to misunderstandings in and of the literature. In this review, we describe a wide variety of data sets and methods to analyze those data sets that have been, are currently, or could be used to derive different types of crater depth measurements. We also recommend certain nomenclature in doing so to help standardize practice in the field. We present a review section of all crater depths that have been published on different solar system bodies which shows how the field has evolved through time and how some common assumptions might not be wholly accurate. We conclude with several recommendations for researchers which could help different data sets to be more easily understood and compared.