Stormwater quantity and quality response to climate change using artificial neural networks

This research investigates the potential impacts of climate change on stormwater quantity and quality generated by urban residential areas on an event basis in the rainy season. An urban residential stormwater drainage area in southeast Calgary, Alberta, Canada is the focus of future climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs). A regression‐based statistical downscaling tool was employed to conduct spatial downscaling of daily precipitation and daily mean temperature using projection outputs from the coupled GCM. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature were applied to current climate scenarios to generate future climate scenarios. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) developed for modelling stormwater runoff quantity and quality used projected climate scenarios as network inputs. The hydrological response to climate change was investigated through stormwater runoff volume and peak flow, while the water quality responses were investigated through the event mean value (EMV) of five parameters: turbidity, conductivity, water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH. First flush (FF) effects were also noted. Under future climate scenarios, the EMVs of turbidity increased in all storms except for three events of short duration. The EMVs of conductivity were found to decline in small and frequent storms (return period < 5 years); but conductivity EMVs were observed to increase in intensive events (return period ≥ 5 years). In general, an increasing EMV was observed for water temperature, whereas a decreasing trend was found for DO EMV. No clear trend was found in the EMV of pH. In addition, projected future climate scenarios do not produce a stronger FF effect on dissolved solids and suspended solids compared to that produced by the current climate scenario. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evacuation of multiple magma bodies and the onset of caldera collapse in a supereruption,captured in glass and mineral compositions

Complexities in the nature of large-scale silicic eruptions and their magmatic systems can be discerned through micro-analytical geochemical studies. We present high-resolution, stratigraphically constrained compositional data on glassy matrix material and feldspar crystals from the initial fall deposits and earliest ignimbrite (base of member A) of the 2.08 Ma, ~?2500 km³ Huckleberry Ridge Tuff (HRT), Yellowstone. We use these data to document the nature of the magmatic system and compositional changes related to the transition from fall to widespread ignimbrite deposition, inferred to mark the onset of caldera collapse. Although major element glass compositions are relatively uniform, trace elements span a large range (e.g. Ba 10–900 ppm, Sr/Rb?=?0.005–0.09), with highly evolved glasses dominating in the fall deposits. Several trace elements (e.g. Ba and light rare earth elements) in the glass samples serve to define statistically significant compositional clustering in the fall deposits and basal ignimbrite. These clusters are inferred to reflect melt compositions controlled by fractional crystallisation processes and are interpreted to represent multiple, discrete melt-dominant domains that were tapped by multiple vents. The onset of widespread ignimbrite deposition is marked by an increase in the number of erupted melt compositional clusters from four in the fall deposits to eight, representing nine melt-dominant domains. There is an absence of geographical variation of glass compositions within the basal ignimbrite, with samples from proximal to distal localities north, west and south of the HRT caldera exhibiting similar variability. Pairing of glass analyses with sanidine major and minor element compositional data suggests that the nine melt compositional domains converged at depth into two compositionally distinct upper-crustal magmatic lineages that were both active during these early stages of the eruption. Our data collectively indicate the evacuation of an exceptionally complex and heterogeneous magma system. The onset of widespread ignimbrite deposition, inferred to relate to caldera collapse, occurred after ~ 50 km³ of magma had been discharged. Although external controls were important as an eruption trigger, depressurisation of the system led to caldera collapse with the eruption of numerous discrete melt-dominant domains.     

Rare earths in the Leadville Limestone and its marble derivates

Samples of unaltered and metamorphosed Leadville Limestone (Mississippian, Colorado) were analyzed by neutron activation for ten rare-earth elements (REE). The total abundance of the REE in the least-altered limestone is 4–12 ppm, and their distribution patterns are believed to be dominated by the carbonate minerals. The abundances of the REE in the marbles and their sedimentary precursors are comparable, but the distribution patterns are not. Eu is enriched over the other REE in the marbles, and stratigraphically upward in the formation (samples located progressively further from the heat source), the light REE become less enriched relative to the heavy REE. The Eu anomaly is attributed to its ability, unique among the REE, to change from the 3+ to 2+ oxidation state. Whether this results in preferential mobilization of the other REE or whether this reflects the composition of the pore fluid during metamorphism is unknown. Stratigraphically selective depletion of the heavy REE may be attributed to more competition for the REE between fluid and carbonate minerals in the lower strata relative to the upper strata. This competition could have been caused by changes in the temperature of the pore fluid or to the greater resistance to solution of the dolomite in the lower parts of the formation than the calcite in the upper parts.     

Beyond the census: a spatial analysis of health and deprivation in England

Whilst the UK is planned to have a census in 2021, it may well be the last and there is official acknowledgement that the country’s statistical system should be enhanced by greater use of administrative data. Thus, there is a pressing need to understand whether alternative data sources are fit for social science purposes. This study assesses the potential of utilizing administrative statistics for investigating the relationships between health and socioeconomic distributions for small areas; a type of study regularly carried out using census data. Pairs of administrative measures of health and deprivation indicator variables are compared with census equivalents for lower super output area geographies in England in 2001. The administrative datasets are then used to derive health measures and deprivation indexes for the time points 2001, 2006 and 2010. Inequalities in health are then analysed using administrative data derived area measures with health found to be poorer in areas with socioeconomic disadvantage. Overall, the administrative datasets used here reveal very similar patterns of health and deprivation to the decennial census suggesting they are viable alternatives and have great potential to enhance the country’s statistical system given their availability outside census years.