Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how derivative changes in climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using twelve scenarios derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) projections to drive biophysical impact models. These scenarios are described in this paper. The scenarios are first put into the context of recent work on climate-change by the IPCC for the 21st century and span two levels of global-mean temperature change and three sets of spatial patterns of change derived from GCM results. In addition, the effect of either the presence or absence of a CO₂ fertilization effect on vegetation is examined by using two levels of atmospheric CO₂ concentration as a proxy variable. Results from three GCM experiments were used to produce different regional patterns of climate change. The three regional patterns for the conterminous United States range from: an increase in temperature above the global-mean level along with a significant decline in precipitation; temperature increases in line with the global-mean with an average increase in precipitation; and, with a sulfate aerosol effect added to in the same model, temperature increases that are lower than the global-mean. The resulting set of scenarios span a wide range of potential climate changes and allows examination of the relative importance of global-mean temperature change, regional climate patterns, aerosol cooling, and CO₂ fertilization effects.     

The role of shallow convection in the water and energy cycles of the atmosphere

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM4) is used to study the role of shallow convection in the hydrologic and energy cycles of the atmosphere. Sensitivity tests with AGCM4 show a marked effect of the parameterization of shallow convection in the model. In particular, including the parameterization of shallow convection produces considerably enhanced vertical mixing and decreased stratiform cloud amounts in the lower subtropical atmosphere over the oceans. The differences in simulated stratiform cloud amounts are associated with a change in the globally averaged outgoing shortwave radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere of about 11 W m⁻². Additionally, precipitation rates are considerably reduced for stratiform clouds and enhanced for convective clouds in the subtropics, if the parameterization of shallow convection is included in the model. Additional tests show that the simulated responses in cloud amounts and precipitation to the treatment of shallow convection are robust. Additional simulations with modified closures for deep convection and other changes to the treatment of convection in the model still lead to similar responses of the model results.     

Ancient mantle lithosphere beneath the Khanka massif in the Russian Far East: in situ Re–Os evidence

The Os‐isotope compositions of sulphides in mantle xenoliths hosted by Late Miocene alkali basalts from the Sviyaginsky volcano, Russian Far East, reveal the presence of Archaean–Proterozoic subcontinental lithospheric mantle beneath the Khanka massif. Their T_MA and T_RD model ages reveal similar peaks at 1.1 and 0.8 Ga suggesting later thermotectonic events in the subcontinental lithospheric mantle, whereas T_RD model ages range back to 2.8 ± 0.5 (2σ) Ga. The events recognized in the subcontinental lithospheric mantle are consistent with those recorded in the crust of the Khanka massif. The sulphide Os‐isotope data show that the subcontinental lithospheric mantle beneath the Khanka massif had formed at least by the Mesoproterozoic, and was subsequently metasomatized by juvenile crustal‐growth events related to the evolution of the Altaids. The Khanka massif is further proposed to have tectonic affinity to the Siberia Craton and should originate from it accordingly.     

Radiocarbon and Luminescence Age Determinations on Mounds at Crystal River and Roberts Island,Florida, USA

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) has been employed successfully to determine the ages of palaeosols from earthen mounds in the southeastern USA, providing archaeologists with a means of dating monument construction in the absence of carbonaceous materials and geologists with a setting for understanding factors that can affect the luminescence intensity (i.e., burial dose) of soils. However, OSL dating has not been adequately tested on mounds whose principal component is sand, shell, or a combination of these two, despite the fact that monuments composed of such materials are common to the coasts and interior coastal plains of the region. Radiocarbon dating of bone collagen and soil‐carbon and OSL dating of quartz grains extracted from the fill of mounds at the Crystal River and Roberts Island sites on the west‐central coast of Florida, USA are used to determine the timing and history of mound construction at the sites. Comparison of OSL and radiocarbon ages on materials from the same or closely related contexts provides insight into factors influencing age determinations in mound fill deposits, particularly the type of construction material (sand or shell) and the manner in which these were deposited. The results contribute to the understanding of the temporal context of platform mound construction in southeastern USA.     

On the nature of rapidly deepening Canadian East Coast winter storms

Abstract

During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP) field project from 15 January to 15 March 1986, seven storms underwent rapid deepening either within or adjacent to the observational network. The most rapid deepening phase of these storms was associated with the surface low‐pressure centre being located close to to the rain‐snow boundary and the end of this phase was associated with the low centre eventually moving to sub‐freezing surface temperatures. Precipitation bands of both rain and snow occurred during maximum deepening. Observations are consistent with divergence and subsidence occurring near the centre itself. It is suggested that a mesoscale circulation initiated by melting snow significantly affects the deepening process.     

High latitude solar magnetic fields

We use Kitt Peak magnetograms to measure polar magnetic fields. The polar mean absolute field increases at the same time as the polar mean field decreases. That is, the polar mean absolute field varies in phase with solar activity, in contrast to the out of phase variation of the mean polar field. We find that the polar fields have a large bipolar component even at solar minimum, with a magnitude equal to that found at low latitudes outside the active latitude bands.     

Cosmological radiative transfer codes comparison project – I. The static density field tests

Radiative transfer (RT) simulations are now at the forefront of numerical astrophysics. They are becoming crucial for an increasing number of astrophysical and cosmological problems; at the same time their computational cost has come within reach of currently available computational power. Further progress is retarded by the considerable number of different algorithms (including various flavours of ray tracing and moment schemes) developed, which makes the selection of the most suitable technique for a given problem a non-trivial task. Assessing the validity ranges, accuracy and performances of these schemes is the main aim of this paper, for which we have compared 11 independent RT codes on five test problems: (0) basic physics; (1) isothermal H  ii region expansion; (2) H  ii region expansion with evolving temperature; (3) I-front trapping and shadowing by a dense clump and (4) multiple sources in a cosmological density field. The outputs of these tests have been compared and differences analysed. The agreement between the various codes is satisfactory although not perfect. The main source of discrepancy appears to reside in the multifrequency treatment approach, resulting in different thicknesses of the ionized-neutral transition regions and the temperature structure. The present results and tests represent the most complete benchmark available for the development of new codes and improvement of existing ones. To further this aim all test inputs and outputs are made publicly available in digital form.