An Analysis Platform for Multiscale Hydrogeologic Modeling with Emphasis on Hybrid Multiscale Methods

One of the most significant challenges faced by hydrogeologic modelers is the disparity between the spatial and temporal scales at which fundamental flow, transport, and reaction processes can best be understood and quantified (e.g., microscopic to pore scales and seconds to days) and at which practical model predictions are needed (e.g., plume to aquifer scales and years to centuries). While the multiscale nature of hydrogeologic problems is widely recognized, technological limitations in computation and characterization restrict most practical modeling efforts to fairly coarse representations of heterogeneous properties and processes. For some modern problems, the necessary level of simplification is such that model parameters may lose physical meaning and model predictive ability is questionable for any conditions other than those to which the model was calibrated. Recently, there has been broad interest across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines in simulation approaches that more rigorously account for the multiscale nature of systems of interest. In this article, we review a number of such approaches and propose a classification scheme for defining different types of multiscale simulation methods and those classes of problems to which they are most applicable. Our classification scheme is presented in terms of a flowchart (Multiscale Analysis Platform), and defines several different motifs of multiscale simulation. Within each motif, the member methods are reviewed and example applications are discussed. We focus attention on hybrid multiscale methods, in which two or more models with different physics described at fundamentally different scales are directly coupled within a single simulation. Very recently these methods have begun to be applied to groundwater flow and transport simulations, and we discuss these applications in the context of our classification scheme. As computational and characterization capabilities continue to improve, we envision that hybrid multiscale modeling will become more common and also a viable alternative to conventional single‐scale models in the near future.     

Role of Subsurface Brines in Salt Balance: The Case Study of the Caspian Sea and Kara Bogaz Bay

The water level of the Caspian Sea fluctuated significantly during recent history, without consensus for the cause. The varied chemistry of the Caspian, Kara Bogaz and sediment a interstitial waters provides a further insight. Element concentrations and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the interstitial waters were compared to those of Caspian and Kara Bogaz open waters, and of acid-leached extractable components. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the interstitial waters are explained by addition of subterranean waters similar to nearby spring waters. These subterranean waters yield chemical characteristics such as a Cl/SO₄, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, Ca/Sr and K/Rb ratios of respectively 80, 0.7086, 250 and 1,800. However, their addition does not explain the large difference in the K/Rb ratio of the Caspian and Kara Bogaz waters, respectively at 7,630 and 17,550, which implies also a leaching of salt deposits by the upward migrating subterranean waters. The sediments of the southern Caspian basin, with low Na, Cl and SO₄ in their interstitial waters, deposited apparently in an anoxic environment. The related chemical changes in the waters are also indicative of a recent change in the hydrologic regime, possibly induced by a changing morphology of the drainage basin.     

Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.     

The Water Framework Directive: Can more information be extracted from groundwater data? A case study of Seewinkel,Burgenland, eastern Austria

Water protection is one of the most important goals in environmental protection. The Clean Water Act in the USA and the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Europe are the legal frameworks to facilitate the achievement of this goal. The question is raised of whether more information can be extracted from WFD-related groundwater data. To answer it, a methodology has been developed that is easy to use and could be implemented into official practice. A case study is presented in which the groundwater data of a sodic area in Austria (Seewinkel) is assessed. Eighteen parameters in groundwater sampled from 23 wells (1991–2011) were analyzed. With basic statistics, trend-, cluster-, Wilks’ λ and spatial sampling density analysis, local phosphorus and boron phenomena were described, along with the determining role of sulphate, groundwater flow, and the oxygen gradient in the area. As a final step, the spatial sampling density was determined. Regarding the current set of parameters, all the sampling sites are necessary and only in the case of certain parameters (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, NO₃ ^?, pH) could one sampling site be abandoned. The methodology applied brings a new perspective to exploring groundwater data collected according to the requirements of the WFD.     

The influence of mussel beds on nutrients in the Western Wadden Sea and Eastern Scheldt estuaries

The uptake and release of materials by intertidal mussel beds were directly measured in two cultivated Dutch estuaries. Generally, chlorophylla, seston, and particulate organic carbon were taken up, while ammonium, orthophosphate, and silicate were released. The observed rates were higher than values computed from organismic observations and similar to those observed for intertidal oyster reefs in South Carolina. Specific estuarine material turnover rates varied from 1 week to 38 weeks when calculated with mussel bed fluxes. The fastest turnover rates were for chlorophylla and ammonium. These results support the idea that dense assemblages of bivalves are major components in the recycling of nutrients in estuaries.     

A statistical procedure for the analysis of seismotectonically induced hydrochemical signals: A case study from the Eastern Carpathians, Romania

Changes in the stress field of an aquifer system induced by seismotectonic activity may change the mixing ratio of groundwaters with different compositions in a well, leading to hydrochemical signals which in principle could be related to discrete earthquake events. Due to the complexity of the interactions and the multitude of involved factors the identification of such relationships is a difficult task. In this study we present an empiric statistical approach suitable to analyse if there is an interdependency between changes in the chemical composition of monitoring wells and the regional seismotectonic activity of a considered area. To allow a rigorous comparison with hydrochemistry the regional earthquake time series was aggregated into an univariate time series. This was realized by expressing each earthquake in form of a parameter “e”, taking into consideration both energetic (magnitude of a seismic event) and spatial parameters (position of epi/hypocentrum relative to the monitoring site). The earthquake and the hydrochemical time-series were synchronised aggregating the e-parameters into “earthquake activity” functions E, which takes into account the time of sampling relative to the earthquakes which occurred in the considered area. For the definition of the aggregation functions a variety of different “e” parameters were considered. The set of earthquake functions E was grouped by means of factor analysis to select a limited number of significant and representative earthquake functions E to be used further on in the relation analysis with the multivariate hydrochemical data set. From the hydrochemical data a restricted number of hydrochemical factors were extracted. Factor scores allow to represent and analyse the variation of the hydrochemical factors as a function of time. Finally, regression analysis was used to detect those hydrochemical factors which significantly correlate with the aggregated earthquake functions.This methodological approach was tested with a hydrochemical data set collected from a deep well monitored for two years in the seismically active Vrancea region, Romania. Three of the hydrochemical factors were found to correlate significantly with the considered earthquake activities. A screening with different time combinations revealed that correlations are strongest when the cumulative seismicity over several weeks was considered. The case study also showed that the character of the interdependency depends sometimes on the geometrical distribution of the earthquake foci. By using aggregated earthquake information it was possible to detect interrelationships which couldn't have been identified by analysing only relations between single geochemical signals and single earthquake events. Further on, the approach allows to determine the influence of different seismotectonic patterns on the hydrochemical composition of the sampled well. The method is suitable to be used as a decision instrument in assessing if a monitoring site is suitable or not to be included in a monitoring net within a complex earthquake prediction strategy.     

Late Holocene Asian summer monsoon dynamics from small but complex networks of paleoclimate data

Internal variability of the Asian monsoon system and the relationship amongst its sub-systems, the Indian and East Asian Summer Monsoon, are not sufficiently understood to predict its responses to a future warming climate. Past environmental variability is recorded in Palaeoclimate proxy data. In the Asian monsoon domain many records are available, e.g. from stalagmites, tree-rings or sediment cores. They have to be interpreted in the context of each other, but visual comparison is insufficient. Heterogeneous growth rates lead to uneven temporal sampling. Therefore, computing correlation values is difficult because standard methods require co-eval observation times, and sampling-dependent bias effects may occur. Climate networks are tools to extract system dynamics from observed time series, and to investigate Earth system dynamics in a spatio-temporal context. We establish paleoclimate networks to compare paleoclimate records within a spatially extended domain. Our approach is based on adapted linear and nonlinear association measures that are more efficient than interpolation-based measures in the presence of inter-sampling time variability. Based on this new method we investigate Asian Summer Monsoon dynamics for the late Holocene, focusing on the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and the recent period of warming in East Asia. We find a strong Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) influence on the East Asian Summer Monsoon during the MWP. During the cold LIA, the ISM circulation was weaker and did not extend as far east. The most recent period of warming yields network results that could indicate a currently ongoing transition phase towards a stronger ISM penetration into China. We find that we could not have come to these conclusions using visual comparison of the data and conclude that paleoclimate networks have great potential to study the variability of climate subsystems in space and time.     

Direct terrestrial-marine correlation demonstrates surprisingly late onset of the last interglacial in central Europe

An interdisciplinary study of a small sedimentary basin at Neumark Nord 2 (NN2), Germany, has yielded a high-resolution record of the palaeomagnetic Blake Event, which we are able to place at the early part of the last interglacial pollen sequence documented from the same section. We use this data to calculate the duration of this stratigraphically important event at 3400 ± 350 yr. More importantly, the Neumark Nord 2 data enables precise terrestrial-marine correlation for the Eemian stage in central Europe. This shows a remarkably large time lag of ca. 5000 yr between the MIS 5e ‘peak’ in the marine record and the start of the last interglacial in this region.     

Establishing constraints on groundwater ages with Cl,C, H,and noble gases: A case study in the eastern Paris basin,France

Groundwaters from the Tithonian/Kimmeridgian, Oxfordian and Upper Dogger aquifers, within the eastern part of the Paris basin (France), were characterised using ³H, ¹⁴C and ³⁶Cl, and noble gases tracers, to evaluate their residence times and determine their recharge period. This information is an important prerequisite to evaluating the confinement properties of the Callovo-Oxfordian clay formation sandwiched between the Oxfordian aquifer and the Dogger aquifer, currently being investigated by the French nuclear waste management agency (Andra) for radioactive waste disposal. Data presented in this paper are used to test 4 hypotheses.     

TL age-estimates for the Middle Palaeolithic layers at Theopetra cave (Greece)

The lowest stratigraphic unit of Theopetra cave (Greece) contains a Middle Palaeolithic sequence radiocarbon dated to between 46 and 35 ka BP; at the limit of this dating method. The upper part of this sequence has yielded late Middle Palaeolithic lithic assemblages containing several early Upper Palaeolithic artifacts. To get more precise dates for the human occupation of the cave, burnt flint specimens from these Middle Palaeolithic layers were dated by thermoluminescence. The dates obtained are coherent and indicate that the first human occupation of the cave took place at the end of isotopic stage 6 or more probably at the beginning of stage 5, much earlier than previously proposed. In the light of this new evidence, it is reasonable to assume that: (a) Theopetra contains the oldest dated Middle Palaeolithic deposits of Greece and (b) that the assemblages first interpreted as “Transitional Middle/Upper Palaeolithic” industries may be the result of post-depositional mixing of cultural material.