Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales

Cold related mortality among people aged over 50 in England and Wales has decreased at a rate of 85 deaths per million population per year over the period 1976–2005. This trend is two orders of magnitude higher than the increase in heat-related mortality observed after 1976. Long term changes in temperature-related mortality may be linked to human activity, natural climatic forcings, or to adaptation of the population to a wider range of temperatures. Here we employ optimal detection, a formal statistical methodology, to carry out an end to end attribution analysis. We find that adaptation is a major influence on changing mortality rates. We also find that adaptation has prevented a significant increase in heat-related mortality and considerably enhanced a significant decrease in cold-related mortality. Our analysis suggests that in the absence of adaptation, the human influence on climate would have been the main contributor to increases in heat-related mortality and decreases in cold-related mortality.     

Physical drivers of pelagic sargassum bloom interannual variability in the Central West Atlantic over 2010–2020

Ocean Dynamics - Since 2011, unprecedented pelagic sargassum seaweed blooms have occurred across the tropical North Atlantic, with severe socioeconomic impacts for coastal populations. To...     

The contribution of anthropogenic forcings to regional changes in temperature during the last decade

Regional distributions of the mean annual temperature in the 2000s are computed with and without the effect of anthropogenic influences on the climate in several sub-continental regions. Simulated global patterns of the temperature response to external forcings are regressed against observations using optimal fingerprinting. The global analysis provides constraints which are then used to construct the regional temperature distributions. A similar approach was also employed in previous work, but here the methodology is extended to examine changes in any region, including areas with a poor observational coverage that were omitted in the earlier study. Two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used in the analysis. Anthropogenic forcings are found to have at least quadrupled the likelihood of occurrence of a year warmer than the warmest year since 1900 in 23 out of the 24 regions. The temperature distributions computed with the two models are very similar. While a more detailed assessment of model dependencies remains to be made once additional suitable GCM simulations become available, the present study introduces the statistical methodology and demonstrates its first application. The derived information concerning the effect of human influences on the regional climate is useful for adaptation planning. Moreover, by pre-computing the change in the likelihood of exceeding a temperature threshold over a range of thresholds, this kind of analysis enables a near real-time assessment of the anthropogenic impact on the observed regional temperatures.     

Assessing water stress in Mediterranean lotic systems: insights from an artificially intermittent river in Greece

Water stress in Mediterranean countries is the result of both variable and changing climatic conditions and widespread anthropogenic pressures. Evrotas, an intermittent river located in Southern Greece, was used as a case study to assess the impacts of water stress on Mediterranean lotic ecosystems. Based on hydrological analyses, it was revealed that during prolonged drought years, such as the summers of 2007 and 2008, the vast majority of the Evrotas riverbed was completely desiccated, primarily as a result of substantial water abstraction for irrigation. The effects of desiccation on the riverine ecosystem were evaluated using fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages according to the demands of the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC (WFD). Faunal responses to water stress were assessed through comparisons of assemblages attributes in perennial and intermittent reaches and pre-drought versus post-drought communities. Effects of hydrological disturbance on fish species richness, density, percentage composition and size structure were more pronounced in intermittent than in perennial sites. The most obvious and immediate impact was the elimination of populations in the intermittent reaches. However, upon flow resumption, the recolonisation from upstream perennial reaches began, thereby permitting partial re-establishment of the depleted fish communities. Nevertheless, the structural integrity of fish communities remained severely impacted and recovery was markedly slow. On the contrary, post-drought macroinvertebrate assemblages were not affected by summer droughts, and the recruitment processes were rapid after flow resumption. Our findings point to the necessity of establishing a distinction between naturally and artificially driven intermittent rivers. We, therefore, propose the introduction of an “artificially intermittent Mediterranean river” condition within the context of the WFD assessment applications.     

Trends of urban surface temperature and heat island characteristics in the Mediterranean

Urban air temperature studies usually focus on the urban canopy heat island phenomenon, whereby the city center experiences higher near surface air temperatures compared to its surrounding non-urban areas. The Land Surface Temperature (LST) is used instead of urban air temperature to identify the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI). In this study, the nighttime LST and SUHI characteristics and trends in the seventeen largest Mediterranean cities were investigated, by analyzing satellite observations for the period 2001–2012. SUHI averages and trends were based on an innovative approach of comparing urban pixels to randomly selected non-urban pixels, which carries the potential to better standardize satellite-derived SUHI estimations. A positive trend for both LST and SUHI for the majority of the examined cities was documented. Furthermore, a 0.1 °C decade^?1 increase in urban LST corresponded to an increase in SUHI by about 0.04 °C decade^?1. A longitudinal differentiation was found in the urban LST trends, with higher positive values appearing in the eastern Mediterranean. Examination of urban infrastructure and development factors during the same period revealed correlations with SUHI trends, which can be used to explain differences among cities. However, the majority of the cities examined show considerably increased trends in terms of the enhancement of SUHI. These findings are considered important so as to promote sustainable urbanization, as well as to support the development of heat island adaptation and mitigation plans in the Mediterranean.     

Model evaluation of the atmospheric boundary layer and mixed-layer evolution

In the present study, an attempt is made to assess the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) depth over an urban area, as derived from different ABL schemes employed by the mesoscale model MM5. Furthermore, the relationship of the mixing height, as depicted by the measurements, to the calculated ABL depth or other features of the ABL structure, is also examined. In particular, the diurnal evolution of ABL depth is examined over the greater Athens area, employing four different ABL schemes plus a modified version, whereby urban features are considered. Measurements for two selected days, when convective conditions prevailed and a strong sea-breeze cell developed, were used for comparison. It was found that the calculated eddy viscosity profile seems to better indicate the mixing height in both cases, where either a deep convective boundary layer develops, or a more confined internal boundary layer is formed. For the urban scheme, the incorporation of both anthropogenic and storage heat release provides promising results for urban applications.     

Influence of frequency‐dependent soil–structure interaction on the fragility of R/C bridges

Bridge performance under earthquake loading can be significantly influenced by the interaction between the structure and the supporting soil. Even though the frequency dependence of the interaction mentioned in this study has long been documented, the simplifying assumption that the dynamic stiffness is dominated by the mean or predominant excitation frequency is still commonly made, primarily as a result of the associated numerical difficulties when the analysis has to be performed in the time domain. This study makes use of the advanced lumped parameter models recently developed 1 in order to quantify the impact of the assumption on the predicted fragility of bridges mentioned in this study. This is achieved by comparing the predicted vulnerability for the case of a reference, well studied, actual bridge using both conventional, frequency‐independent, Kelvin–Voigt models and the aforementioned lumped parameter formulation. Analysis results demonstrate that the more refined consideration of frequency dependence of soil–structure interaction at the piers and the abutments of a bridge not only leads to different probabilities of failure for given intensity measures but also leads to different hierarchy and distribution of damage within the structure for the same set of earthquake ground motions even if the overall probability of exceeding a given damage state is the same. The paper concludes with the comparative assessment of the effect for different soil conditions, foundation configurations, and ground motion characteristics mentioned in this study along with the relevant analysis and design recommendations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying key environmental variables structuring benthic fauna for establishing a biotic typology for Greek running waters

A central aspect of the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC addressed to Member Countries is to proceed to type-specific ecological assessment and classification by establishing typology systems. Sixty-four permanent stream sites distributed throughout mainland Greece and islands were assessed with macroinvertebrate indicators to evaluate their ecological quality. Local and catchment scale parameters were determined and recorded to obtain an integrated assessment of the main factors affecting stream integrity and macroinvertebrate communities. Twenty-three sites were classified as reference or good status in terms of biological, chemical and hydromorphological quality with the use of various metrics. Multivariate statistical techniques were performed (MDS, BIOENV, correlation analysis and PCA) to investigate the main environmental factors structuring benthic macroinvertebrate communities and to select candidate environmental variables for establishing a biotic typology for Hellenic rivers. The results revealed relatively distinct macroinvertebrate communities within defined abiotic zones of the country. Assemblages of macroinvertebrate fauna were most strongly associated to differences in geographical position, altitude, slope, catchment area, current velocity, conductivity and water temperature. In view of the lack of sufficient data at the country level on the three last variables and after considering cause-effect relationships between large scale variables and the latter, it has been demonstrated that a number of catchment scale variables could be used as robust surrogates.