Biostratigraphic and detrital zircon age constraints on the basement of the Himalayan Foreland Basin: Implications for a Proterozoic link to the Lesser Himalaya and cratonic India

The Himalayan Foreland Basin in the Ganga Valley is key to assessing the pre‐collision relationship between cratonic India and the Himalaya – the world's largest mountain chain. The subsurface Ganga Supergroup, representing the sedimentary basement of the Ganga Valley, has been interpreted as a northern extension of the Proterozoic Vindhyan Supergroup in cratonic India. This interpretation is contentious because the depositional age of the Ganga Supergroup is not resolved: whereas the lower Ganga Supergroup is widely regarded as Proterozoic, the upper Ganga Supergroup has been variously inferred to include Neoproterozoic, lower Palaeozoic, or Cretaceous strata. Here, we integrate biostratigraphic and detrital zircon data from drill cores to show that the entire Ganga Supergroup is likely Proterozoic and can be correlated with Proterozoic successions on the northern Indian craton and in the Lesser Himalaya. This helps redefine the first‐order stratigraphic architecture and indicates broad depositional continuity along the northern Indian margin during the Proterozoic.     

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2 °C, followed by stabilisation to 4 °C.     

The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.     

Effectiveness of simple approaches in mitigating residual deformations in buildings

Developments in performance‐based seismic design and assessment approaches have emphasized the importance of considering residual deformations. Recent investigations have also led to a proposed direct displacement‐based design (DDBD) approach which includes an explicit consideration of the expected residual deformations as an integral part of the design process. Having estimated the expected residual deformations in a structure, engineers are faced with the problem of reducing them to meet the targeted performance levels under pre‐defined seismic hazard levels. Previous studies have identified the post‐yield stiffness as a primary factor influencing the magnitude of residual deformations in single degree of freedom and multiple degree of freedom structures. In this paper, a series of simple approaches to increase the post‐yield stiffness of traditional framed and braced systems for the purpose of reducing residual deformations are investigated. These methods do not utilize recentring post‐tensioned technology. This contribution addresses the feasibility of altering the lateral post‐yield stiffness of structural systems by: (i) using different reinforcement materials with beneficial features in their stress–strain behaviour; (ii) re‐designing the section geometry and properties of primary seismic‐resisting elements; and (iii) introducing a secondary elastic frame to act in parallel with the primary system. The efficiency of each of these techniques is investigated through monotonic and cyclic moment‐curvature and non‐linear time‐history analyses. Of these approaches the design and introduction of an elastic secondary system was found to be most effective and consistent in reducing residual deformations. A simplified design approach for achieving the desired increase of a system's post‐yield stiffness is also presented. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adapting to climate change: Public water supply in England and Wales

This paper describes an assessment of the ways in which water supply companies in England and Wales are adapting to climate change, evaluated in the context of a model of the adaptation process. The four components of the model are (i) awareness of and concern about the potential impacts of climate change, (ii) adaptation strategy, (iii) the concept of an adaptation space from which options are selected, and (iv) the notion that three groups of factors influence awareness, strategy and option selection: susceptibility to change, internal characteristics of the organisation, and regulatory and market context.Public water supply in England and Wales is provided by private sector companies, subject to environmental and economic regulation. Hydrological simulations suggest that climate change has the potential to reduce the reliability of supply sources over the next few decades. The industry in December 2004 completed a review of investment requirements over the next five years.Awareness of climate change is high in the water industry, but by developing assessment procedures and incorporating them into the investment review the regulators forced companies to consider explicitly the potential impacts of climate change in a consistent and rigorous manner. These analyses combined climate change with other pressures on water resources, and in practice companies did not attribute specific investment decisions or proposals to climate change or indeed any other individual drivers. The broad strategy adopted by all water supply companies – to maintain standards of service – is determined by regulatory controls and market considerations, but the degree of concern about the impacts of climate change and precise adaptation options necessary to address supply-demand imbalances varied between water supply companies, reflecting local geographic conditions. The water supply companies and regulators have different perspectives on the relative merits of supply-side and demand-side measures, reflecting different organisational priorities.The 2004 investment review determined that no specific actions were necessary to deal with future climate change, but that measures set in place – in terms of methodologies and investment in investigations into specific resource developments – provided a sound foundation for more specific actions in the next investment review in five years time. The paper concludes by summarising the factors assisting and constraining adaptation over the next few decades.     

Evaluating Quaternary dating methods: Radiocarbon,U-series,luminescence, and amino acid racemization dates of a late Pleistocene emu egg

A whole emu egg, with infilling sediment believed to be coeval with egg laying and burial, was found in late Pleistocene lunette sediments near Lake Eyre, central Australia. The stratigraphic context and initial amino acid racemization (AAR) results suggested an age between 25 ka and 35 ka, ideal for a multiple cross-dating comparison. The sediment infilling the egg provided material for luminescence dating that minimized problems of association. Age estimations from AAR, ¹⁴C and U series methods were obtained from the eggshell and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) of the infilling sediment. All methods agreed within their respective dating uncertainties confirming the utility of all four methods. They indicate an age for the emu egg of 31.24 ± 0.34 ka.     

Rapid Eocene erosion,sedimentation and burial in the eastern Himalayan syntaxis and its geodynamic significance

The lower Bomi Group of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis comprises a lithological package of sedimentary and igneous rocks that have been metamorphosed to upper amphibolite-facies conditions. The lower Bomi Group is bounded to the south by the Indus–Yarlung Suture and to the north by unmetamorphosed Paleozoic sediments of the Lhasa terrane. We report U–Pb zircon dating, geochemistry and petrography of gneiss, migmatite, mica schist and marble from the lower Bomi Group and explore their geological implications for the tectonic evolution of the eastern Himalaya. Zircons from the lower Bomi Group are composite. The inherited magmatic zircon cores display ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages from ~ 74 Ma to ~ 41.5 Ma, indicating a probable source from the Gangdese magmatic arc. The metamorphic overgrowth zircons yielded ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages ranging from ~ 38 Ma to ~ 23 Ma, that overlap the anatexis time (~ 37 Ma) recorded in the leucosome of the migmatites. Our data indicate that the lower Bomi Group do not represent Precambrian basement of the Lhasa terrane. Instead, the lower Bomi Group may represent sedimentary and igneous rocks of the residual forearc basin, similar to the Tsojiangding Group in the Xigaze area, derived from denudation of the hanging wall rocks during the India–Asia continental collision. We propose that following the Indian–Asian collision, the forearc basin was subducted, together with Himalayan lithologies from the Indian continental slab. The minimum age of detrital magmatic zircons from the supracrustal rocks is ~ 41.5 Ma and their metamorphism had happened at ~ 37 Ma. The short time interval (< 5 Ma) suggests that the tectonic processes associated with the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, encompassing uplift and erosion of the Gangdese terrane, followed by deposition, imbrication and subduction of the forearc basin, were extremely rapid during the Late Eocene.     

Structure,composition and bulk properties of upland stream gravels

Upland gravel-bedded streams in the U.K. have received only scant attention from both hydrologists and sedimentologists, but are worthy of further investigation. The sedimentology of three small streams in Teesdale in the Pennines has been examined in detail. Grain-size characteristics, bedforms, structure, composition and packing characteristics of these deposits are described, and compared where appropriate with published information. It is argued that a fuller appreciation of gravel bed composition and morphology should eventually contribute to an improved understanding of sediment transport and deposition mechanisms, and, hence, to improved accuracy in sediment transport and deposition estimates.     

Quaternary glaciation of the Bale Mountains,Ethiopia

Central Ethiopia comprises a high plateau at 2000–3000 m, formed from Tertiary lava flows and bisected by the Eastern African Rift. Ten volcanic mountains rise to altitudes of just over 4000 m, but on only three has Quaternary glaciation been substantiated by published field observations. On the Bale Mountains (4400 m), a previous report based on limited evidence proposed an ice‐cap extending to 600 km². Based on aerial photographs and ground surveys, this paper reports evidence of a more complex situation. A wide spread of large erratic boulders on the plateau records a central ice cap of 30 km², though ice probably extended for a further 40 km². Further north two groups of deeply incised and clearly glaciated valleys contain moraines and roches moutonnées (60 km²). On interfluves between them and on the open north slopes are moraines from an earlier stage of the same glaciation or from a distinct older event. Altogether about 180 km² may have been glaciated. Cores dated by ¹⁴C from inside and outside the glaciated area suggest that at least the northern valley glaciers may date from the Last Glacial Maximum. Estimated equilibrium line altitudes for these glaciers and the ice‐cap are 3750–4230 m. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.