A comparison of state space and multiple regression for monthly forecasts: U.S. Fuel consumption

Monthly consumption forecasts for U.S. oil, natural gas, and coal are made using state space and multiple regression applied to the same data. These forecasts are compared with actual consumption for a test period. The forecasts made using state space are preferred to those made using multiple regression models for both expost and exante cases. The state space forecasts track data cycles better than do the regression forecasts. Average absolute forecast errors are less for the state space models than they are for the multiple regression models.     

Volatiles H2O,CO2, and Cl in a subduction related basalt

The products of the 1974 eruption of Fuego, a subduction zone volcano in Guatemala, have been investigated through study of silicate melt inclusions in olivine. The melt inclusions sampled liquids in regions where olivine, plagioclase, magnetite, and augite were precipitating. Comparisons of the erupted ash, groundmass, and melt inclusion compositions suggest that the inclusions represent samples of liquids present in a thermal boundary layer of the magma body. The concentrations of H₂O and CO₂ in glass inclusions were determined by a vacuum fusion manometric technique using individual olivine crystals (Fo77 to Fo71) with glass inclusion compositions that ranged from high-alumina basalt to basaltic andesite. Water, Cl, and K₂O concentrations increased by a factor of two as the olivine crystals became more iron-rich (Fo77 to Fo71) and as the glass inclusions increased in SiO₂ from 51 to 54 wt.% SiO₂. The concentration of H₂O in the melt increased from 1.6 wt.% in the least differentiated liquid to about 3.5% in a more differentiated liquid. Carbon dioxide is about an order of magnitude less abundant than H₂O in these inclusions. The gas saturation pressures for pure H₂O in equilibrium with the melt inclusions, which were calculated from the glass inclusion compositions using the solubility model of Burnham (1979), are given approximately by P(H₂O)(Pa)=(SiO₂−48.5 wt.%) × 1.45 × 10⁷. The concentrations of water in the melt and the gas saturation pressures increased from about 1.5% to 3.5% and from 300 to 850 bars, respectively, during pre-eruption crystallization.     

Initial volatilization temperatures and average volatilization rates of coal — Their relationship to coal rank and other characteristics

Two thermal parameters, initial volatilization temperature (IVT) and average volatilization rate (AVR), have been determined by thermogravimetric analysis in argon for 38 coal samples ranging in rank from lignite to low-volatile bituminous. Both IVT and AVR are correlated with percent volatile matter and vitrinite reflectance.The IVT values increase gradually from about 250 to 445°C with increasing rank; however, a change in slope is observed in the region of high-volatile bituminous coals (from about 340°C to about 380°C) when IVT's are plotted against percent volatile matter or percent fixed carbon. The changes in slope near 340°C and near 380°C occur at “coalification jumps” recognized on the basis of changes in the optical and chemical character of the macerals. In general, AVR values decrease gradually with increasing rank for the lignite and sub-bituminous coals and for the medium- and low-volatile bituminous coals; however, a sharp increase in AVR occurs in high-volatile bituminous coals. The change in slope of the IVT curves and sharp increase in the AVR values for high-volatile bituminous coals reflect the development of new, higher vapor pressure organic compounds produced during this stage of the coalification process.A plot of AVR vs IVT reveals three regions which correspond to: (1) lignite and sub-bituminous coals; (2) high-volatile bituminous coals; and (3) medium- to low-volatile bituminous coals.     

Gelification of victorian tertiary soft brown coal wood. II. Changes in chemical structure associated with variation in the degree of gelification

The gross chemical structures of xylites and gelified soft brown coal woods, Latrobe Valley, Victoria, Australia, as determined by solid state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, are compared with those of present-day wood-derived materials prepared from an angiosperm, Eucalyptus regnans, and a gymnosperm (conifer), Pinus radiata. Also examined are the changes in the gross chemical structures of soft brown coal woods with increase in their degree of gelification and the relationship between these changes and variations in their chemical composition and microscopic appearance.The Victorian xylites exhibit greater affinities with the present-day gymnosperm than the present-day angiosperm. The progressive removal of cellulose with increasing degree of gelification can be equated with an increase in huminite reflectance, elimination of humotelinite autofluorescence and changes in the relative proportions of the humotelinite submacerals. The lignin structure of xylite is also modified during the gelification process, including the progressive loss of methoxyl groups and evidence of minor oxidation.     

Earthquake simulator testing of pounding between adjacent buildings

Two-storey-building frames have been designed and built in an effort to investigate the pounding phenomenon of adjacent buildings during earthquakes. Static tests have been first performed to determine the static characteristics and the support conditions of the test structures. Sinusoidal and random acceleration signal tests have been subsequently performed to determine the dynamic characteristics of the test structures. Two series of tests were carried out using the shaking table simulator. In the first case, the dynamic response has been recorded without pounding, while in the second case, the test structures have been placed with zero-gap separation and pounding was induced. Input energy time histories were correlated and compared with and without pounding. The experimental results were compared with analytical ones based on a formulation of the contact impact problem by the Lagrange multiplier method. Good agreement between the experimental and the analytical results was achieved.     

Detecting Changes in Ground Water Quality at Regulated Facilities

The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (PL 94–580) and related federal and state legislation have mandated routine monitoring of ground water quality at regulated facilities. The objective of the required monitoring activities is detection of adverse changes in ground water quality caused by the facilities.
Both failure to detect pollution and an incorrect determination of pollution can be very expensive. It is crucial, therefore, that monitoring programs be designed and operated to provide statistically sound information. It is equally important that users of ground water quality data understand the nature and limitations of information from monitoring.
To address the preceding issues, the authors present a general approach to analyzing ground water quality data in light of the stated monitoring objective. The suggested approach accounts for "natural" variation in background water quality through pairing of observations. The limitations of quarterly sampling for detecting small changes in quality over a short time frame are discussed.     

Structure,composition and bulk properties of upland stream gravels

Upland gravel-bedded streams in the U.K. have received only scant attention from both hydrologists and sedimentologists, but are worthy of further investigation. The sedimentology of three small streams in Teesdale in the Pennines has been examined in detail. Grain-size characteristics, bedforms, structure, composition and packing characteristics of these deposits are described, and compared where appropriate with published information. It is argued that a fuller appreciation of gravel bed composition and morphology should eventually contribute to an improved understanding of sediment transport and deposition mechanisms, and, hence, to improved accuracy in sediment transport and deposition estimates.     

Vertical distribution of plankton in the skagerrak in relation to doming of the seasonal thermocline

In the central Skagerrak between Norway and Denmark, the seasonal thermocline tends to be relatively shallow (10 to 15 m) probably due to geostrophic effects. An investigation of phytoplankton distribution in this region in late August 1981 showed the presence of an intense subsurface chlorophyll maximum (up to 30 γ 1⁻ Chl a) at a temperature of <6°C, dominated by coccolithophores and the dinoflagellate, Prorocentrum minimum. Data are presented on the vertical distribution of zooplankton in relation to these phytoplankton populations.     

A review of the premium-protection method and its possible application in detection of displacements

A statistical technique using the concepts of Premium-Protection for error detection is applied to deformation measurement. The most attractive aspect of the method is the expression of test values involved in terms of size of deformation (within the limits of a particular design) to be detected. As a demonstration observations from a dam settlement survey are analysed.