Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies

Abstract

Hydrological data may be temporally autocorrelated requiring autoregressive process parameters to be estimated. Current statistical methods for hydrological change detection in paired watershed studies rely on prediction intervals, but the current form of prediction intervals does not include all appropriate sources of variation. Corrected prediction intervals for the analysis of paired watershed study data that include variation associated with covariance and linear model parameter estimation are presented. We provide an example of their application to data from the Hinkle Creek Paired Watershed Study located in the western Cascade foothills of Southern Oregon, USA. Research implications of using the correct prediction limits and incorporating the estimation uncertainty of autoregressive process parameters are discussed.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Som, N.A., Zégre, N.P., Ganio, L.M. and Skaugset, A.E., 2012. Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 134–143.     

Changes in North Sea macrofauna communities and species distribution between 1986 and 2000

The North Sea Benthos Project 2000 was initiated as a follow-up to the 1986 ICES North Sea Benthos Survey with the major aim to identify changes in the macrofauna species distribution and community structure in the North Sea and their likely causes.The results showed that the large-scale spatial distribution of macrofauna communities in the North Sea hardly changed between 1986 and 2000, with the main divisions at the 50 m and 100 m depth contours. Water temperature and salinity as well as wave exposure, tidal stress and primary production were influential environmental factors on a large (North Sea-wide) spatial scale.The increase in abundance and regional changes in distribution of various species with a southern distribution in the North Sea in 2000 were largely associated with an increase in sea surface temperature, primary production and, thus, food supply. This can be most likely related to the North Sea hydro-climate change in the late 1980s influenced by the variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Only one cold-temperate species decreased in abundance in 2000 at most of the stations. Indications for newly established populations of offshore non-native species were not found.Differences in macrofauna community structure on localised spatial scales were predominantly found north of the 50 m depth contour off the British coast along the Flamborough Head Front towards the Dogger Bank, off the coast of Jutland and at the Frisian Front. These changes were most likely attributed to stronger frontal systems in 2000 caused by the increased inflow of Atlantic water masses in relation to the hydro-climate change in the late 1980s.     

The mass–metallicity relation in galaxy clusters: the relative importance of cluster membership versus local environment

Using a large (14 857), homogenously selected sample of cluster galaxies identified in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 4, we investigate the impact of cluster membership and local density on the stellar mass–gas phase metallicity relation (MZR). We show that stellar metallicities are not suitable for this work, being relatively insensitive to subtle changes in the MZR. Accurate nebular abundances can be obtained for 1318 cluster galaxies in our sample and we show that these galaxies are drawn from clusters that are fully representative of the parent sample in terms of mass, size, velocity dispersion and richness. By comparing the MZR of the cluster galaxies with a sample of control galaxies matched in mass, redshift, fibre covering fraction and rest-frame   g − r   colour cluster galaxies are found to have, on average, higher metallicities by up to 0.04 dex. The magnitude of this offset does not depend strongly on galactic half-light radius or cluster properties such as velocity dispersion or cluster mass. The effect of local density on the MZR is investigated, using the presence of a near neighbour and both two- and three-dimensional density estimators. For all three metrics, it is found that the cluster galaxies in locally rich environments have higher median metallicities by up to ∼0.05 dex than those in locally poor environments (or without a near neighbour). Control (non-cluster) galaxies at locally high densities exhibit similar metal enhancements. Taken together, these results show that galaxies in clusters are, on average, slightly more metal rich than the field, but that this effect is driven by local overdensity and not simply cluster membership.     

Kinematic interpretation of folds in alpine-type peridotites

From a general understanding of the flow mechanisms in alpine-type peridotites, it is possible to describe without ambiguity the general flow regime and its directions in a massif. This result provides the means for an investigation of the origin of the folding in pyroxenitic layers independent of any preconceived theory on folding.The folds are usually isoclinal and of the flexural-flow type as demonstrated by petrofabric studies in hinges. Their axes are always parallel or subparallel to a mineral lineation which in turn is parallel or close to the orientation of the fabric elements defining the flow line. Their axial plane, which usually coincides with the foliation, is parallel to or close to the flow plane. This conclusion, also supported by paragenetic observations, shows that the folds were formed or transposed during the plastic flow responsible for the development of structures (foliation and lineation), textures and preferred mineral orientations. In the case of the Lanzo Massif and a few other Iherzolite massifs, the flow occurred during the intrusion from the mantle. The mapping in Lanzo yields evidence of a large-scale U-shaped fold with a remarkable pattern of mesoscopic folds attached to it: the tight isoclinal folds are restricted to the limbs of the largescale structure, and the open folds locally refolding former isoclinal ones to the hinge area where the angle between the folded pyroxenitic layering and the axial-plane foliation is large. Stereograms of the field structures in this hinge area clearly illustrate the geometric relations mentioned above.This folding, characterized by its axis and axial plane respectively close to the flow line and flow plane, can be explained either by rotation towards the flow line of non-cylindrical-fold axes or by direct formation in a non-plane flow when the flow line is initially contained in the layering or close to it. In this respect, the folding may bring information on the minor flow component, complementary to that given on the major flow component by considering the textures and fabrics. Finally this folding is shown to be ubiquitous in plastically deformed peridotites. It is proposed that these conclusions be extended to other domains submitted to intense non-plane flow.     

The 3:2 spin-orbit resonant motion of Mercury

Our purpose is to build a model of rotation for a rigid Mercury, involving the planetary perturbations and the non-spherical shape of the planet. The approach is purely analytical, based on Hamiltonian formalism; we start with a first-order basic averaged resonant potential (including J ₂ and C ₂₂, and the first powers of the eccentricity and the inclination of Mercury). With this kernel model, we identify the present equilibrium of Mercury; we introduce local canonical variables, describing the motion around this 3:2 resonance. We perform a canonical untangling transformation, to generate three sets of action-angle variables, and identify the three basic frequencies associated to this motion. We show how to reintroduce the short-periodic terms, lost in the averaging process, thanks to the Lie generator; we also comment about the damping effects and the planetary perturbations. At any point of the development, we use the model SONYR to compare and check our calculations.     

Microbialite development patterns in the last deglacial reefs from Tahiti (French Polynesia; IODP Expedition #310): Implications on reef framework architecture

The widespread occurrence of microbialites in the last deglacial reef frameworks (16–6 Ka BP) implies that the accurate study of their development patterns is of prime importance to unravel the evolution of reef architecture through time and to reconstruct the reef response to sea-level variations and environmental changes.The present study is based on the sedimentological and chronological analysis (¹⁴C AMS dating) of drill cores obtained during the IODP Expedition #310 “Tahiti Sea Level” on the successive terraces which typify the modern reef slopes from Tahiti. It provides a comprehensive data base to investigate the microbialite growth patterns (i.e. growth rates and habitats), to analyze their roles in reef frameworks and to reconstruct the evolution of the reef framework architecture during sea-level rise.The last deglacial reefs from Tahiti are composed of two distinctive biological communities: (1) the coralgal communities including seven assemblages characterized by various growth forms (branching, robust branching, massive, tabular and encrusting) that form the initial frameworks and (2) the microbial communities developed in the primary cavities of those frameworks, a few meters (1.5 to 6 m) below the living coral reef surface, where they heavily encrusted the coralgal assemblages to form microbialite crusts. The dating results demonstrate the occurrence of two distinctive generations of microbialites: the “reefal microbialites” which developed a few hundred years after coralgal communities in shallow-water environments, whereas the “slope microbialites” grew a few thousands of years later in significantly deeper water conditions after the demise of coralgal communities.The development of microbialites was controlled by the volume and the shape of the primary cavities of the initial reef frameworks determined by the morphology and the packing of coral colonies. The most widespread microbialite development occurred in frameworks dominated by branching, thin encrusting, tabular and robust branching coral colonies which built loose and open frameworks typified by a high porosity (> 50%). In contrast, their growth was minimal in compact coral frameworks formed by massive and thick encrusting corals where primary cavities yielded a low porosity (~ 30%) and could not host a significant microbialite expansion.     

Late Cretaceous Foraminiferal Faunas from the Saiqu "mélange" in Southern Tibet

As one of the mélanges in the southern side of the Yarlung-Zangbo suture zone, the Saiqu mélange in southern Tibet is important for understanding the evolution of the Neo-Tethys ocean. The age of the Saiqu mélange, however, has been debated due to the lack of reliable fossil evidence in matrix strata. Based on lithological similarities with platform strata in southern Tibet and limited fossils from exotic blocks, previous studies variously ascribed the Saiqu mélange to be Triassic in general, Late Triassic, or Late Cretaceous. Here we reported planktonic foraminiferal faunas from the matrix strata of the Saiqu mélange. The new fossils yield a Late Cretaceous age, which is so far the best age constraint for the mélange. Regional stratigraphic correlation indicates that the Cretaceous Oceanic Red Beds (CORBs) in Saiqu may be time equivalent to the CORBs of the Zongzhuo Formation in neighboring regions. Thus the Saiqu mélange should be correlated to the Upper Cretaceous Zongzhuo Formation rather than the Triassic Xiukang Group, as previously suggested.     

A GIS‐based Vehicle Mobility Estimator for Operational Contexts

A vehicle mobility estimator has been developed to produce decision aid maps for projecting civil or military forces on operational theatres. Based on the exploitation of classical geographical sources (e.g. digital elevation models, optical images, and vector databases) and thematic sources (e.g. climate, meteorological, pedological and land cover databases), the system computes speed maps for different kinds of vehicles moving both on‐road and off‐road. Such computations are realized through a ground‐vehicle interaction module that estimates the vehicle performance from experimental results, numerical simulations and empirical relationships. The system's architecture is built using a GIS interface that manages the data, the computation and the presentation layers. An operational version of this tool has been tested and validated on several operational theatres in France and in northern Africa. The results show good agreement between the predicted mobility performance of various vehicles and those observed on the field. A case study is presented to illustrate the mobility maps and demonstrate their relevance in the decision‐making chain depending on different climate contexts. A short application to itinerary optimization is presented as a promising future application.