Long-Term RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Greece in the Period 2004–2013

Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short-term (from days to weeks) forecast. However, a very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated with the complex process of preparation for major earthquakes. In this paper one of these parameters (the Earth’s emitted radiation in the Thermal InfraRed spectral region) is considered for its possible correlation with M ≥ 4 earthquakes occurred in Greece in between 2004 and 2013. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) data analysis approach and Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies (RETIRA) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to identify, significant sequences of TIR anomalies (SSTAs) in 10 years (2004–2013) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. Taking into account the physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrences, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability—CSEP—Project) have been defined to drive a retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that more than 93 % of all identified SSTAs occur in the prefixed space–time window around (M ≥ 4) earthquake's time and location of occurrence with a false positive rate smaller than 7 %. Molchan error diagram analysis shows that such a correlation is far to be achievable by chance notwithstanding the huge amount of missed events due to frequent space/time data gaps produced by the presence of clouds over the scene. Achieved results, and particularly the very low rate of false positives registered on a so long testing period, seems already sufficient (at least) to qualify TIR anomalies (identified by RST approach and RETIRA index) among the parameters to be considered in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to t-DASH.     

Vegetation turnover in a braided river: frequency and effectiveness of floods of different magnitude

This work addresses the temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation in large braided rivers, exploring the relationship between vegetation erosion and flood magnitude. In particular, it investigates the existence of a threshold discharge, or a range of discharges, above which erosion of vegetated patches within the channel occurs. The research was conducted on a 14 km long reach of the Tagliamento River, a braided river in north‐eastern Italy. Ten sets of aerial photographs were used to investigate vegetation dynamics in the period 1954–2011. By using different geographic information system (GIS) procedures, three aspects of geomorphic‐vegetation dynamics and interactions were addressed: (i) long‐term (1954–2011) channel evolution and vegetation dynamics; (ii) the relationship between vegetation erosion/establishment and flow regime; (iii) vegetation turnover, in the period 1986–2011. Results show that vegetation turnover is remarkably rapid in the study reach with 50% of in‐channel vegetation persisting for less than 5–6 years and only 10% of vegetation persisting for more than 18–19 years. The analysis shows that significant vegetation erosion is determined by relatively frequent floods, i.e. floods with a recurrence interval of c. 1–2.5 years, although some differences exist between sub‐reaches with different densities of vegetation cover. These findings suggest that the erosion of riparian vegetation in braided rivers may not be controlled solely by very large floods, as is the case for lower energy gravel‐bed rivers. Besides flow regime, other factors seem to play a significant role for in‐channel vegetation cover over long time spans. In particular, erosion of marginal vegetation, which supplies large wood elements to the channel, increased notably over the study period and was an important factor for in‐channel vegetation trends. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regularized tomographic inversion with geological constraints

Reflection tomography is the industry standard tool for velocity model building, but it is also an ill‐posed inverse problem as its solution is not unique. The usual way to obtain an acceptable result is to regularize tomography by feeding the inversion with some a priori information. The simplest regularization forces the solution to be smooth, implicitly assuming that seismic velocity exhibits some degree of spatial correlation. However, velocity is a rock property; thus, the geometry and structure of rock formations should drive correlation in velocity depth models. This observation calls for constraints driven by geological models. In this work, we present a set of structural constraints that feed reflection tomography with geometrical information. These constraints impose the desired characteristics (flatness, shape, position, etc.) on imaged reflectors but act on the velocity update. Failure to respect the constraints indicates either velocity inaccuracies or wrong assumptions concerning the constraints. Reflection tomography with structural constraints is a flexible framework that can be specialized in order to achieve different goals: among others, to flatten the base of salt bodies or detachment surfaces, to recover the horizontalness of oil–water contacts, or to impose the co‐location of the same imaged horizon between PP and PS images. The straightforward application of structural constraints is that of regularizing tomography through geological information, particularly at the latest stages of the depth imaging workflow, when the depth migration structural setting reached a consistent geological interpretation. Structural constraints are also useful in minimizing the well‐to‐seismic mis‐ties. Moreover, they can be used as a tool to check the consistency of interpreters' hypothesis with seismic data. Indeed, inversion with structural constraints will preserve image focusing only if the interpreters' insights are consistent with the data. Results from synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of reflection tomography with structural constraints.     

Assessment of a monumental masonry bell-tower after 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence by long-term SHM

The response of the San Pietro monumental bell-tower located in Perugia, Italy, to the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence is investigated, taking advantage of the availability of field data recorded by a vibration-based SHM system installed in December 2014 to detect earthquake-induced damages. The tower is located about 85 km in the NW direction from the epicenter of the first major shock of the sequence, the Accumoli Mw6.0 earthquake of August 24th, resulting in a small local PGA of about 30 cm/s², whereby near-field PGA was measured as 915.97 cm/s² (E–W component) and 445.59 cm/s² (N–S component). Similar PGA values also characterized the two other major shocks of the sequence (Ussita Mw5.9 and Norcia Mw6.5 earthquakes of October 26th and 30th, respectively). Despite the relatively low intensity of such earthquakes in Perugia, the analysis of long-term monitoring data clearly highlights that small permanent changes in the structural behavior of the bell-tower have occurred after the earthquakes, with decreases in all identified natural frequencies. Such natural frequency decays are fully consistent with what predicted by non-linear finite element simulations and, in particular, with the development of microcracks at the base of the columns of the belfry. Microcracks in these regions, and in the rest of tower, are however hardly distinguishable from pre-existing ones and from the physiological cracking of a masonry structure, what validates the effectiveness of the SHM system in detecting earthquake-induced damage at a stage where this is not yet detectable by visual inspections.     

Chlorinated compounds and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) collected from Apulia Region coasts

This project was carried out to assess the levels and spatial distribution of organochlorine compounds in the coastal marine environment, using mussels as bioindicators to evaluate the coastal water quality. Levels of polychlorobiphenils (PCB), chlorinated pesticides (DDT isomers, HCH isomers, Aldrin, Dieldrin, alfa-Endosulfan, Hexachlorobenzene, Pentachlorobenzene) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were determined in tissues from mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) collected along the Apulia Region coasts (Mediterranean Sea). Results indicate that contamination by organochlorine compounds is higher in mussels sampled in the Ionian Sea than in those from the Adriatic Sea, with PCB levels up to seven times higher in mussels from Ionian than from the Adriatic Sea. Although PCB levels were above the maximum values indicated by both European Community (EC) and National regulation in several sample sites, the PCB concentrations were particularly high in some stations, suggesting that these locations require a much specific attention. Conversely, results on the mussel contamination by PBDEs highlight their ubiquitous environmental distribution, and underline the need to establish the maximum level for these compounds in foodstuff, according to European Regulations.     

The potential origins and palaeoenvironmental implications of high temporal resolution δO heterogeneity in coral skeletons

δ¹⁸O was determined at high spatial resolution (beam diameter ∼30 μm) by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) across 1-2 year sections of 2 modern Porites lobata coral skeletons from Hawaii. We observe large (>2‰) cyclical δ¹⁸O variations that typically cover skeletal distances equivalent to periods of ∼20-30 days. These variations do not reflect seawater temperature or composition and we conclude that skeletal δ¹⁸O is principally controlled by other processes. Calcification site pH in one coral record was estimated from previous SIMS measurements of skeletal δ¹¹B. We model predicted skeletal δ¹⁸O as a function of calcification site pH, DIC residence time at the site and DIC source (reflecting the inputs of seawater and molecular CO₂ to the site). We assume that oxygen isotopic equilibration proceeds at the rates observed in seawater and that only the aqueous carbonate ion is incorporated into the precipitating aragonite. We reproduce successfully the observed skeletal δ¹⁸O range by assuming that DIC is rapidly utilised at the calcification site (within 1 h) and that ∼80% of the skeletal carbonate is derived from seawater. If carbonic anhydrase catalyses the reversible hydration of CO₂ at the calcification site, then oxygen isotopic equilibration times may be substantially reduced and a larger proportion of the skeletal carbonate could be derived from molecular CO₂. Seasonal skeletal δ¹⁸O variations are most pronounced in the skeleton deposited from late autumn to winter (and coincide with the high density skeletal bands) and are dampened in skeleton deposited from spring to summer. We observed no annual pattern in sea surface temperature or photosynthetically active radiation variability which could potentially correlate with the coral δ¹⁸O. At present we are unable to resolve an environmental cue to drive seasonal patterns of short term skeletal δ¹⁸O heterogeneity.     

Fragmentation during Rock Falls: Two Italian Case Studies of Hard and Soft Rocks

In recent years, rock fall phenomena in Italy have received considerable attention for risk mitigation through in situ observations and experimental data. This paper reports the study conducted at Camaldoli Hill, in the urban area of Naples, and at Monte Pellegrino, Palermo, Italy. The rocks involved are volcanic Neapolitan yellow tuff (NYT) in the former area and dolomitic limestone in the latter. Both rocks, even though with different strength characteristics, have shown a significant tendency towards rock fragmentation during run out. This behavior was first investigated by comparing the volumes of removable blocks on the cliff faces (V ₀) and fallen blocks on the slopes (V _f). It was assumed that the ratio V _f/V ₀ decreases with the distance (x _f) from the detachment area by an empirical law, which depends on a coefficient α, correlated with the geotechnical properties of the materials involved in the rock fall. Finally, this law was validated by observation of well-documented natural rock falls (Palermo) and by in situ full-scale tests (Naples). From the engineering perspective, consideration of fragmentation processes in rock fall modeling provides a means for designing low-cost mitigation measures.     

Middle and late Pleistocene glaciations in the Campo Felice Basin (central Apennines, Italy)

The present paper refers to research conducted in the tectonic-karst depression of Campo Felice in the central Apennines (Italy), in which glacial, alluvial and lacustrine sediments have been preserved. Stratigraphic interpretations of sediments underlying the Campo Felice Plain are based on evidence obtained from nine continuous-core boreholes. The boreholes reach a depth of 120 m and provide evidence of five sedimentation cycles separated by erosion surfaces. Each cycle is interpreted as an initial response to a mainly warm stage, characterized by low-energy alluvial and colluvial deposition, pedogenesis, and limited episodes of marsh formation. In turn, a mainly cold stage follows during which a lake formed, and glaciers developed and expanded, leading to deposition of glacial and fluvioglacial deposits. The chronological framework is established by eleven accelerator mass spectrometer ¹⁴C ages and three ³⁹Ar-⁴⁰Ar ages on leucites from interbedded tephra layers. These age determinations indicate five glacial advances that respectively occurred during marine oxygen isotope stages 2, 3-4, 6, 10 and 14.     

Landslide HotSpot Mapping by means of Persistent Scatterer Interferometry

Landslide detection and mapping represent fundamental requirements for every hazard and risk evaluation and consequent improvement of the management strategies for such natural hazards. Optical and radar remote sensing can be used to observe landslide-induced ground deformation, ranging from regional to local scales. This work presents a methodology called Landslide HotSpot Mapping; this approach integrates cartographic, thematic and optical data with Persistent Scatterer Interferometry for the identification of extremely slow to very slow moving landslides, and for the evaluation of their state of activity and intensity. This methodology scans wide areas to detect hotspots, which are narrow unstable zones characterized by higher landslide hazard. To these hotspots, priority has to be given when planning field surveys and in situ validation campaigns, so that field work time and effort can be optimized and significantly reduced. The approach is tested in Central Calabria, over a 4,470?km² area located in southern Italy. ENVISAT ascending images acquired between 2003 and 2009 and processed with the Persistent Scatterer Pairs (PSP) technique are used to analyse deformation patterns. Combining conventional photo-interpretation with the analysis of PSP data, 64 new landslides are identified and the spatial (boundaries) and temporal (activity) information of 980 pre-mapped phenomena (23.6% of updated inventory) are updated. 1,012 active (continuous or reactivated) landslides are identified and 4 hotspot areas selected: San Fili, Rende, Lago, Catanzaro. Urgent field checks have to be organized for these hotspots to validate the satellite-based observations and to design appropriate mitigation measures to reduce impacts on the elements at risk.