Modeling fracture porosity development using simple growth laws

A model of porosity development has been developed to investigate general relationships between simple fracture aperture growth laws and fracture porosity in evolved fracture arrays in aquifers. The growth of fracture apertures in two-dimensional orthogonal arrays with initially spatially uncorrelated lognormal aperture distributions has been studied, where aperture growth rate is proportional to an exponent of the flow rate through each fracture. The evolved arrays show geometrical phase changes as a function of the aperture growth rate exponent, e, and the standard deviation of the initial aperture distribution, sigma(z). Low values of e and sigma(z) lead to bimodal aperture distributions, where apertures parallel to flow are preferentially enlarged. At moderate values of e and sigma(z), there is a transition to a regime of more complex geometries consisting of networks of channel-like structures of preferentially enlarged apertures. At larger values of e, array-spanning channel-like paths of preferentially enlarged apertures develop, where the tortuosity of the channel-like paths is a linear function of sigma(z). Following an initial growth phase, during which dynamically stable aperture configurations develop, arrays undergo simple amplification. The geometry of the evolved aperture fields is diverse and they can be highly complex; consequently, parameterization and prediction of their evolution in terms of the initial aperture distributions and growth rate laws is not trivial.     

The Eldgjá eruption: timing,long-range impacts and influence on the Christianisation of Iceland

The Eldgjá lava flood is considered Iceland’s largest volcanic eruption of the Common Era. While it is well established that it occurred after the Settlement of Iceland (circa 874 CE), the date of this great event has remained uncertain. This has hampered investigation of the eruption’s impacts, if any, on climate and society. Here, we use high-temporal resolution glaciochemical records from Greenland to show that the eruption began in spring 939 CE and continued, at least episodically, until at least autumn 940 CE. Contemporary chronicles identify the spread of a remarkable haze in 939 CE, and tree ring-based reconstructions reveal pronounced northern hemisphere summer cooling in 940 CE, consistent with the eruption’s high yield of sulphur to the atmosphere. Consecutive severe winters and privations may also be associated with climatic effects of the volcanic aerosol veil. Iceland’s formal conversion to Christianity dates to 999/1000 CE, within two generations or so of the Eldgjá eruption. The end of the pagan pantheon is foretold in Iceland’s renowned medieval poem, V?luspá (‘the prophecy of the seeress’). Several lines of the poem describe dramatic eruptive activity and attendant meteorological effects in an allusion to the fiery terminus of the pagan gods. We suggest that they draw on first-hand experiences of the Eldgjá eruption and that this retrospection of harrowing volcanic events in the poem was intentional, with the purpose of stimulating Iceland’s Christianisation over the latter half of the tenth century.     

Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history,and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods.Dams along the river help to manage flood waters,and are important sources of electricity for the region.Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit.Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services.The teleconnection from El Ni ?no to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Ni ?no in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system.This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin,building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast.A simple forecasting methodology is presented,in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations.Its performance for2016 is discussed.The heavy rainfall in the May–June–July period was correctly forecast well in advance.August saw anomalously low rainfall,and the forecasts for the June–July–August period correctly showed closer to average levels.The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin.Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts,and highlight areas for future improvements.     

Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Summer Surface Air Temperature in Western China by Global Seasonal Forecast System Version 5

Variations of surface air temperature(SAT) are key in affecting the hydrological cycle,ecosystems and agriculture in western China in summer.This study assesses the seasonal forecast skill and reliability of SAT in western China,using the Glo Sea5 operational forecast system from the UK Met Office.Useful predictions are demonstrated,with considerable skill over most regions of western China.The temporal correlation coefficients of SAT between model predictions and observations are larger than 0.6,in both northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau.There are two important sources of skill for these predictions in western China:interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific and the SST trend in the tropical Pacific.The tropical SST change in the recent two decades,with a warming in the western Pacific and cooling in the eastern Pacific,which is reproduced well by the forecast system,provides a large contribution to the skill of SAT in northwestern China.Additionally,the interannual variation of SST in the western Pacific gives rise to the reliable prediction of SAT around the Tibetan Plateau.It modulates convection around the Maritime Continent and further modulates the variation of SAT on the Tibetan Plateau via the surrounding circulation.This process is evident irrespective of detrending both in observations and the model predictions,and acts as a source of skill in predictions for the Tibetan Plateau.The predictability and reliability demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for climate services providing early warning of extreme climate events and could imply useful economic benefits.     

Multi-frequency satellite radar imaging of cultural heritage: the case studies of the Yumen Frontier Pass and Niya ruins in the Western Regions of the Silk Road Corridor

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing is increasingly favoured in archaeological applications. However, the effectiveness of this technology for archaeological prospection has so far not been fully assessed. In this study, an integrated single-date and multi-temporal SAR data-processing chain was proposed to sharpen archaeological signs and hence their detection and monitoring. In total, 14 scenes of X-band Cosmo-SkyMed, C-band Sentinel-1 and L-band PALSAR data covering the Western Regions of the Silk Road Corridor in China were employed for two important archaeological sites including the Yumen Frontier Pass with emerging archaeological traces and Niya ruins with subsurface remains. The results pointed out that single-date satellite radar data were useful for the identification of subsurface traces buried under desert in the landscape-scale, whereas for the identification of emerging monuments, Sentinel-1 was limited by its lower spatial resolution compared to TerraSAR and PALSAR data. Multi-date products, such as interferometric coherence, the averaged radar signatures and RGB multi-temporal composites, were effective to sharpen archaeological traces as well as for change detection in Yumen Frontier Pass. This study presents a pilot assessment of satellite SAR data for the analysis and monitoring of archaeological features in the predominantly arid-sandy environmental characteristic of investigated sites.     

Petrographic and petrophysical investigation on carbonate samples (Upper Cretaceous) from the Tushka Area (Egypt) with special focus on the effective pore radius

Petrographic and petrophysical properties of 42 carbonate rock samples from the Tushka Area, Egypt have been investigated. The samples originate from the Upper Cretaceous taken from seven shallow wells and were subdivided into three microfacies. The petrographic characterization of the glauconite-rich, fossiliferous limestones was carried out over 17 thin sections and an additional measurement of the glauconite content by color differentiation. The facies were characterized as (1) oolithic, low-dolomitic, and low-glauconitic, fossil-rich packstone with a tendency towards floatstone or rudstone; (2) glauconite-rich, low-dolomitic floatstone with a tendency towards rudstone; and (3) glauconite and iron mineral-rich, sparry calcitic cemented, and low-dolomitic rudstone. The petrophysical investigation providing grain density, porosity, electrical conductivity, specific internal surface, permeability, magnetic susceptibility, and the pore throat geometry supports the classification into three facies. A strong relation between permeability and formation factor is observed. The median pore radius derived from mercury porosimetry proves to be a good estimate of the effective hydraulic radius. An increased content of iron oxides was identified in facies 3. The increased iron content is related to higher values of both magnetic susceptibility and specific internal surface.     

The first use of Fulton's K for assessing and comparing the conditions of inter‐tidal fish populations

Fulton's K condition factor was applied, for the first time, to inter‐tidal specimens of the shanny (Lipophrys pholis) and long‐spined scorpion fish (Taurulus bubalis) from two English rocky shore and two Welsh rocky shore sites during summer 2010 and winter 2011. As both species contribute to the diet of commercial species such as cod (Gadus morhua) and near‐threatened species such as the European otter (Lutra lutra), their condition may affect that of these predators. Fulton's K found that inter‐tidal Welsh fish maintained a ‘good’ condition between seasons, whereas the inter‐tidal English fish were in a poorer condition during winter. Although condition also changed amongst the sites on each coast, further studies are needed into fish morphologies, environmental parameters, prey availabilities and abundances, and fish specimen sex and maturities.     

The Vallo di Diano and Auletta extensional basins in the southern Apennines (Italy): a simple model for a complex setting

The aim of this paper was to provide a significant case‐history concerning the evolution of a segmented system of extensional faults and related basins, investigated by a set of seismic reflection profiles. We investigated two kinematically linked semi‐grabens, developed at the hangingwall of two opposite‐dipping normal faults: the Vallo di Diano and Auletta basins, located in the southern Apennines, one of the most seismically active regions of the Italian peninsula. Our interpretation suggests that the Pliocene–Quaternary tectonic history consists of a single extensional phase, where the major NW–SE trending normal faults, generating the basins, and the strike‐slip and transtensional faults connecting adjacent normal fault segments, simultaneously act, being part of the same extensional system. We also conclude that major normal faults, bordering the basins, should be considered as potential seismogenic sources in the seismic hazard evaluation.     

An improved process-based representation of stream solute transport in the soil and water assessment tools

Hydrological models have long been used to study the interactions between land, surface and groundwater systems, and to predict and manage water quantity and quality. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), a widely used hydrological model, can simulate various ecohydrological processes on land and subsequently route the water quality constituents through surface and subsurface waters. So far, in-stream solute transport algorithms of the SWAT model have only been minimally revised, even though it has been acknowledged that an improvement of in-stream process representation can contribute to better model performance with respect to water quality. In this study, we aim to incorporate a new and improved solute transport model into the SWAT model framework. The new process-based model was developed using in-stream process equations from two well established models—the One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage model and the Enhanced Stream Water Quality Model. The modified SWAT model (Mir-SWAT) was tested for water quality predictions in a study watershed in Germany. Compared to the standard SWAT model, Mir-SWAT improved dissolved oxygen (DO) predictions by removing extreme low values of DO (<6 mg/L) simulated by SWAT. Phosphate concentration peaks were reduced during high flows and a better match of daily predicted and measured values was attained using the Mir-SWAT model (R² = 0.17, NSE = −0.65, RSR = 1.29 with SWAT; R² = 0.28, NSE = −0.04, RSR = 1.02 with Mir-SWAT). In addition, Mir-SWAT performed better than the SWAT model in terms of Chlorophyll-a content particularly during winter months, improving the NSE and RSR for monthly average Chl-a by 74 and 42%, respectively. With the new model improvements, we aim to increase confidence in the stream solute transport component of the model, improve the understanding of nutrient dynamics in the stream, and to extend the applicability of SWAT for reach-scale analysis and management.