Inventory and evolution of glacial lakes since the Little Ice Age: Lessons from the case of Switzerland

Retreating glaciers give way to new landscapes with lakes as an important element. In this study, we combined available data on lake outlines with historical orthoimagery and glacier outlines for six time periods since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1850). We generated a glacial lake inventory for modern times (2016) and traced the evolution of glacial lakes that formed in the deglaciated area since the LIA. In this deglaciated area, a total of 1192 lakes formed over the period of almost 170 years, 987 of them still in existence in 2016. Their total water surface in 2016 was 6.22 ± 0.25 km². The largest lakes are > 0.4 km² (40 ha) in size, while the majority (> 90%) are smaller than 0.01 km². Annual increase rates in area and number peaked in 1946–1973, decreased towards the end of the 20th century, and reached a new high in the latest period 2006–2016. For a period of 43 years (1973–2016), we compared modelled overdeepenings from previous studies to actual lake genesis. For a better prioritization of formation probability, we included glacier-morphological criteria such as glacier width and visible crevassing. About 40% of the modelled overdeepened area actually got covered by lakes. The inclusion of morphological aspects clearly aided in defining a lake formation probability to be linked to each modelled overdeepening. Additional morphological variables, namely dam material and type, surface runoff, and freeboard, were compiled for a subset of larger and ice-contact lakes in 2016, constituting a basis for future hazard assessment.     

An improved sampling rule for mapping geopotential functions of a planet from a near polar orbit

One of the limiting factors in the determination of gravity field solutions is the spatial sampling. Especially during phases, when the satellite repeats its own track after a short time, the spatial resolution will be limited. The Nyquist rule-of-thumb for mapping geopotential functions of a planet, also referred to as the Colombo–Nyquist rule-of-thumb, provides a limit for the maximum achievable degree of a spherical harmonic development for repeat orbits. We show in this paper that this rule is too conservative, and solutions with better spatial resolutions are possible. A new rule is introduced which limits the maximum achievable order (not degree!) to be smaller than the number of revolutions if the difference between the number of revolutions and the number of nodal days is of odd parity and to be smaller than half the number of revolutions if the difference is of even parity. The dependence on the parity is reflected in the eigenvalue spectrum of the normal matrix and becomes especially important in the presence of noise. The rule is based on applying the Nyquist sampling theorem separately in North–South and East–West direction. This is only possible for satellites in highly inclined orbits like champ and grace. Tables for these two satellite missions are also provided which indicate the passed and (in case of grace) expected repeat cycles and possible degradations in the quality of the gravity field solutions.     

Modelling potential movement in constrained travel environments using rough space–time prisms

The widespread adoption of location-aware technologies (LATs) has afforded analysts new opportunities for efficiently collecting trajectory data of moving individuals. These technologies enable measuring trajectories as a finite sample set of time-stamped locations. The uncertainty related to both finite sampling and measurement errors makes it often difficult to reconstruct and represent a trajectory followed by an individual in space–time. Time geography offers an interesting framework to deal with the potential path of an individual in between two sample locations. Although this potential path may be easily delineated for travels along networks, this will be less straightforward for more nonnetwork-constrained environments. Current models, however, have mostly concentrated on network environments on the one hand and do not account for the spatiotemporal uncertainties of input data on the other hand. This article simultaneously addresses both issues by developing a novel methodology to capture potential movement between uncertain space–time points in obstacle-constrained travel environments.     

Computation and visualisation of the accuracy of old maps using differential distortion analysis

The accuracy of old maps can hold interesting historical information, and is therefore studied using distortion analysis methods. These methods start from a set of ground control points that are identified both on the old map and on a modern reference map or globe, and conclude with techniques that compute and visualise distortion. Such techniques have advanced over the years, but leave room for improvement, as the current ones result in approximate values and a coarse spatial resolution. We propose a more elegant and more accurate way to compute distortion of old maps by translating the technique of differential distortion analysis, used in map projection theory, to the setting where an old map and a reference map are directly compared. This enables the application of various useful distortion metrics to the study of old maps, such as the area scale factor, the maximum angular distortion and the Tissot indicatrices. As such a technique is always embedded in a full distortion analysis method we start by putting forward an optimal analysis method for a general-purpose study, which then serves as the foundation for the development of our technique. Thereto, we discuss the structure of distortion analysis methods and the various options available for every step of the process, including the different settings in which the old map can be compared to its modern counterpart, the techniques that can be used to interpolate between both, and the techniques available to compute and visualise the distortion. We conclude by applying our general-purpose method, including the differential distortion analysis technique, to an example map also used in other literature.     

A Study of the Local Geometric Accuracy of Count de Ferraris's Carte de cabinet (1770s) Using Differential Distortion Analysis

The eighteenth century Carte de cabinet of count de Ferraris is the first large-scale (1:11?520) topographic map of the entire Belgian territory, making it a valuable source of historical information. In the past, a number of studies have tried to assess the geometric accuracy of this map, but they all suffer from restricted technical capabilities for computing and visualizing the distortions, and most of them only focus on a limited number of the 275 map sheets. This paper therefore seeks to provide the first systematic and in-depth investigation of the map’s local geometric accuracy. Recently, two Belgian government agencies georeferenced the Flemish and Walloon part of the Carte de cabinet with a high level of detail, using some 30,000 ground control points to link the old map to the modern topographic map of Belgium. These data sets represent a new and unprecedented potential source of accuracy information. However, the high number of control points and our desire to compute distortions in an exact, local, quantitative and continuous way meant prominent techniques for studying the geometric accuracy of old maps, such as displacement vectors, distortion grids, triangular nets and the popular MapAnalyst software, were unsuited for this task. To meet all our requirements a new technique called Differential Distortion Analysis, which is influenced by the treatment of distortions in map projection theory, was used instead. Its advantages, structure and application to the Carte de cabinet are discussed in detail. The new technique allows calculating and displaying the map’s local angular and surface distortions with a very high spatial resolution. Consequently, it was possible to identify trends in the obtained levels of accuracy and to relate these to historical facts about the Carte de cabinet’s production process. This has resulted in important new insights into the map’s geometric accuracy.     

Global analysis of land-use changes in karst areas and the implications for water resources

Karst areas contain valuable groundwater resources and high biodiversity, but are particularly vulnerable to climate change and human impacts. Land-use change is the cause and consequence of global environmental change. The releases of the Climate Change Initiative-Land Cover (CCI-LC) and World Karst Aquifer Map (WOKAM) datasets have made it possible to explore global land-use changes in karst areas. This paper firstly analyses the global karst land-use distribution in 2020, as well as the land-use transition characteristics between 1992 and 2020. Then, two indicators, proportion of land-use change and dominant type of land-use change, are proposed to identify the spatial characteristics of land-use change in global karst areas. Finally, three examples of land-use change in karst areas are analyzed in detail. Land-use types and proportions of the global karst areas from large to small are as follows: forest (31.78%), bare area (27.58%), cropland (19.02%), grassland (10.87%), shrubland (7.21%), wetland (1.67%), ice and snow (1.16%) and urban (0.71%). The total area of global karst land-use change is 1.30 million km², about 4.85% of global karst surface. The land-use change trend of global karst is dominated by afforestation, supplemented by scattered urbanization and agricultural reclamation. The tropical climate has a higher intensity of land-use change. Regions of agricultural reclamation are highly consistent with the population density. These results reflect the impact of human activities and climate change on land-use changes in global karst areas, and serve as a basis for further research and planning of land resource management.

     

Quark-Novae Ia in the Hubble diagram: implications for dark energy

The accelerated expansion of the Universe was proposed through the use of Type-Ia supernovae （SNe） as standard candles. The standardization depends on an empirical correlation between the stretch/color and peak luminosity of the light curves. The use of Type-Ia SNe as standard candles rests on the assumption that their properties （and this correlation） do not vary with redshift. We consider the possibility that the majority of Type-Ia SNe are in fact caused by a Quark-Nova detonation in a tight neutron-star-CO-white-dwarf binary system, which forms a Quark-Nova Ia （QN-Ia）. The spin-down energy injected by the Quark-Nova remnant （the quark star） contributes to the post-peak light curve and neatly explains the observed correlation between peak luminosity and light curve shape. We demonstrate that the parameters describing QN-Ia are NOT constant in redshift. Simulated QN-Ia light curves provide a test of the stretch/color correlation by comparing the true distance modulus with that determined using SN light curve fitters. We determine a correction between the true and fitted distance moduli, which when applied to Type-Ia SNe in the Hubble diagram recovers the ΩM = 1 cosmology. We conclude that Type-Ia SNe observations do not necessitate the need for an accelerating expansion of the Universe （if the observed SNe Ia are dominated by QNe Ia） and by association the need for dark energy.     

Modeling the Impact of Stream Discharge Events on Riparian Solute Dynamics

The biogeochemical composition of stream water and the surrounding riparian water is mainly defined by the exchange of water and solutes between the stream and the riparian zone. Short-term fluctuations in near stream hydraulic head gradients (e.g., during stream flow events) can significantly influence the extent and rate of exchange processes. In this study, we simulate exchanges between streams and their riparian zone driven by stream stage fluctuations during single stream discharge events of varying peak height and duration. Simulated results show that strong stream flow events can trigger solute mobilization in riparian soils and subsequent export to the stream. The timing and amount of solute export is linked to the shape of the discharge event. Higher peaks and increased durations significantly enhance solute export, however, peak height is found to be the dominant control for overall mass export. Mobilized solutes are transported to the stream in two stages (1) by return flow of stream water that was stored in the riparian zone during the event and (2) by vertical movement to the groundwater under gravity drainage from the unsaturated parts of the riparian zone, which lasts for significantly longer time (> 400 days) resulting in long tailing of bank outflows and solute mass outfluxes. We conclude that strong stream discharge events can mobilize and transport solutes from near stream riparian soils into the stream. The impact of short-term stream discharge variations on solute exchange may last for long times after the flow event.     

Comparing modern and Pleistocene ENSO-like influences in NW Argentina using nonlinear time series analysis methods

Higher variability in rainfall and river discharge could be of major importance in landslide generation in the northwestern Argentine Andes. Annual layered (varved) deposits of a landslide dammed lake in the Santa Maria Basin (26°S, 66°W) with an age of 30,000 ¹⁴C years provide an archive of precipitation variability during this time. The comparison of these data with present-day rainfall observations tests the hypothesis that increased rainfall variability played a major role in landslide generation. A potential cause of such variability is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The causal link between ENSO and local rainfall is quantified by using a new method of nonlinear data analysis, the quantitative analysis of cross recurrence plots (CRP). This method seeks similarities in the dynamics of two different processes, such as an ocean–atmosphere oscillation and local rainfall. Our analysis reveals significant similarities in the statistics of both modern and palaeo-precipitation data. The similarities in the data suggest that an ENSO-like influence on local rainfall was present at around 30,000 ¹⁴C years ago. Increased rainfall, which was inferred from a lake balance modeling in a previous study, together with ENSO-like cyclicities could help to explain the clustering of landslides at around 30,000 ¹⁴C years ago.