Evaluation of climate reanalysis and space-borne precipitation products over Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

This study aims to quantify the spatial distribution of errors in two climate reanalysis (ERA5 and CFSR) and two satellite (TMPA-RT and TMPA-V7) precipitation products over Bangladesh. The datasets are assessed against ground-based rain gauge observations to capture the extreme rainfall accumulations at daily temporal scale over a 5-year period (January 2010–December 2014). The bias ratio scores indicate that CFSR and TMPA-RT seriously overestimate the rainfall values over much of the study area. Whilst TMPA-V7 performs better than the other precipitation products, all datasets lose their detection skills substantially for higher quantile thresholds (i.e. above 50th and 75th percentiles). With respect to rainfall detection metrics – probability of detection (POD) and volumetric hit index (VHI) – both ERA5 and CFSR show superior performance (in the range 0.9–1.0 for all the analysis grid boxes). All rainfall datasets are equally good in terms of false alarm ratio (FAR) and volumetric FAR (VFAR), even though the lowest values are associated with ERA5 for higher quantiles. All products demonstrate a decrease in skill to capture the amount of rainfall but show satisfactory results to detect the rainfall events when using higher quantile thresholds (i.e. rainfall above the 50th and 75th percentiles) to sample the data before computing product skill.     

The prediction of road surface state and simulation of the shading effect

In winter road maintenance, accurate predictions of road surface temperature and state (dry, wet, frost or ice) are valuable for road authorities and organisations to decide where and when to salt or grit roads. Obstructions caused by hills, buildings and trees near road-condition forecast sites both in the daytime and at night (the shading effect) reduce the accuracy of such predictions. This paper describes recent developments in the prediction of road surface state and the simulation of the shading effect, using the Icebreak model, which gives encouraging results.     

Engineering geological characterization of low strength anisotropic rocks in the Himalayan region for assessment of tunnel support

A detailed engineering geological assessment of low strength (6–35 MPa) anisotropic rocks at an ongoing Hydroelectric Project in the Himalayan Region has been carried out. The project (the Nathpa Jhakri Hydroelectric Project) will have one of the world's largest and longest water conducting systems, consisting of a 10.15 m diameter and 27.3 km long head race tunnel, a 942 000 m³ underground desilting complex and a 20 × 49 × 216 m powerhouse cavern in the area. Because these constructions are made in low strength metamorphosed anisotropic rocks like quartz mica schists, biotite schists and muscovite schists, it seemed necessary and worthwhile to undertake a comprehensive study of such rocks. The studies include petrographic and petrofabric analyses of the rocks, geo-mechanical properties, rock stress measurements, rock mass classification using the Q-System and data concerning joint geometry, joint roughness and joint strength. The use of mapped geological and geotechnical data along with the experimental and modelling studies have helped to better understand the behaviour of these rocks in underground openings.     

Constraining the timing of alluvial fan response to late quaternary climatic changes, southern Tunisia

The evolution of the Oued es Seffaia alluvial fan during the last 50,000 years is analyzed in the light of chronometric data derived from AMS radiocarbon and optical dating techniques. These ages have enabled the temporal constraint of the distalward progression of the intersection point (the upper limit of the locus of deposition) which has resulted in the telescopic segmentation of the fan. Comparison of these data with the Late Quaternary climatic history of the Maghreb highlights several problems of interpretation; due both to our limited knowledge of regional palaeoclimates and of the response of dryland fluvial systems to climate changes. However, our data provide some evidence to suggest that fan incision and formation of telescopic segments occurs in response to changes from arid to less arid conditions, supporting the conclusions of some of the work from other areas.     

Western Palaearctic palaeoenvironmental conditions during the Early and early Middle Pleistocene inferred from large mammal communities,and implications for hominin dispersal in Europe

Large-scale fluctuations in global climate and resulting changes in ecology had a profound effect on human evolution and dispersal. Though hominin remains are scarce, studies focussing on the more abundant records of fossil land mammal communities can contribute greatly to our knowledge of the palaeoenvironmental circumstances that influenced and directed the global spread of hominins. To produce a comprehensive and accurate account of the evolution of western Palaearctic habitat diversity between 2.6 and 0.4 Ma BP, information generated from large mammal communities from 221 key sites has been included in this study.The palaeoecological conditions of the western Palaearctic during the Early and early Middle Pleistocene were principally controlled by the following key factors: (1) a widespread trend of temperature decrease, (2) the periodicity of the global temperature record, (3) the intensity of single climatic stages, (4) the temporal pattern of climatic variation, (5) geographical position, and (6) the distribution of continental water resources. A general picture of the evolution of western Palaearctic habitat diversity saw the replacement of extensive forested terrain by an alternating sequence of varied savannah-like and forested habitats during the 2.6–1.8 Ma span, as well as an alternation between different types of predominantly open habitats between 1.8 and 1.2 Ma. Both of these processes were governed by 41 ka temperature periodicity. During the 1.2–0.9 Ma time span, irregular climatic fluctuations were more common and habitat variability increased. The subsequent 0.9–0.4 Ma interval, a period controlled by 100 ka periodicity, was by comparison more stable, with longer climatic cycles alternating between open and forested landscapes. During the entire Early and early Middle Pleistocene, assemblages of large mammal communities reveal a distinct trend of decreasing continentality between Eastern and South-Eastern Europe on the one hand, and South-Western and North-Western Europe on the other. This trend was due to the effect of the Atlantic Ocean, while in Southern Europe the relatively low continentality was balanced by influences from the Mediterranean Sea.When plotted against evidence of hominin occurrence, the data on western Palaearctic habitat diversity inferred from large mammal communities indicate clear environmental stimuli for the earliest human dispersal in Europe. These are: (1) a wide range of habitats, implying a high diversity of resources; (2) mild climates with low seasonality, implying a lack of strong environmental fluctuations. Around 1.8 Ma at the latest, hominins of African origin entered the western Palaearctic for the first time, taking advantage of the diversity of habitats and resources, particularly along large river systems. Their subsequent westward spread between 1.7 and 1.3 Ma was restricted to Mediterranean-influenced areas, which offered a high variability of habitats and relatively low seasonality. The increase in environmental diversity, which occurred from 1.2 Ma onwards, opened up South-Eastern and Eastern Europe for hominin occupation. According to the available records, North-Western and Central Europe were initially colonized during late Early to early Middle Pleistocene interglacials, when these regions experienced periods of low seasonality and considerable habitat diversity.     

Comparison of methodological uncertainties within permeability measurements

Permeability measurements are critical to the calculation of water‐flow within hillslopes. Despite this, errors in permeability measurements are often ignored, and can be very large particularly in disturbance‐sensitive gley soils. This work compares the uncertainties associated with six field methods of permeametry applied to a gleyed soil in upland Britain. Slug tests, constant‐head borehole permeametry, and falling‐head borehole permeametry were undertaken on established piezometers. Additionally, ring permeametry and two types of trench tests were evaluated. Method‐related uncertainty due to proximity of impeding layers of high sorptivity soils produces under‐ and over‐estimates of permeability by a factor of up to 0·2 and 5, respectively. This uncertainty band is smaller than the observed effects of anisotropy and temporal variability. Had smearing and soil‐ring leakage errors not been minimized, the methodological uncertainties would have been so large that they would have distorted the true spatial field of permeability and its estimated impact on the balance of vertical and lateral flow. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sedimentation, fracturing and sliding on a pelagic plateau margin: the Middle Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous succession of Rocca Busambra (Western Sicily, Italy)

The Jurassic succession of Rocca Busambra consists of two lithostratigraphic units: a pile of peritidal limestones several hundreds of metres thick (Inici Formation: Hettangian to Sinemurian) and a 2 to 15 m thick sequence of Rosso Ammonitico‐type pelagic limestones (Toarcian? to lowermost Berriasian). An extensive interval of non‐deposition is evidenced by a thick Fe–Mn oxide crust on the bounding disconformity and is recorded partially in the material contained within a complex network of neptunian dykes and sills. Seven lithofacies are distinguished in the Rosso Ammonitico. These lithofacies show that the Rosso Ammonitico limestones differ from most analogues both in Sicily and elsewhere: sediments are mostly grain‐supported and non‐nodular; obviously bottom currents were important during deposition of these sediments. These currents were pulsating at different frequencies and induced winnowing, intraclast production and early cement precipitation. Other Rosso Ammonitico lithosomes of Late Jurassic to earliest Cretaceous age, usually decimetre thick and discontinuous, overlie the Inici Formation without any Fe–Mn crust; their anomalous stratigraphical and geometrical relationships show that they were deposited on an inclined, stepped, erosional surface incised in the sub‐horizontal Inici Formation. This ancient escarpment is interpreted as the result of a mainly gravitational collapse of the margin of a pelagic plateau. Such mass wasting was probably due to the backstepping of the tectonic plateau–basin margin that is not observable directly, but may be inferred from circumstantial evidence. This observation clearly shows that tectonic activity affected the Rocca Busambra sector of the West Tethys continental margins a few tens of millions of years after the end of the rifting stage. The anomalous Rosso Ammonitico sediments are the only indication of the escarpment and their occurrence in the stratigraphic record is probably more widespread than reported in the literature. More accurate palaeoenvironmental and palaeogeographic reconstructions may depend on the identification of these sediments.     

Stratigraphic architecture and infill history of a deglaciated bedrock valley based on georadar, seismic profiling and drilling

The sediment fill of a silled bedrock valley in Western Norway has been investigated with respect to stratigraphy and infill history using a combination of mapping, georadar, seismic profiling and drilling. A small outlet glacier occupies the head of the valley that displays a stepwise down-valley profile and terminates in a lake at 29 m above sea-level. The valley is surrounded by high, steep bedrock slopes and is characterized by a series of filled basins each limited by sills of bedrock or moraine accumulations. Till, glacial outwash and/or rockslide deposits fill in the lower half of the two larger basins. (Fan) delta deposits fringed by the deposits of alluvial fans and colluvial cones dominate the upper fill of most basins. (Fan) delta deposits interfinger downstream with lake sediments in the larger basins and fluvial deposits comprise the top fill. The overall infill pattern was controlled by deglaciation as well as basin size and shape. An overall decreasing sediment supply following deglaciation is shown in the fill of a larger basin down-valley, whereas a recently increasing sediment supply during glacier growth is reflected primarily in an upstream basin. Only the lowermost basin was exposed to a sea-level drop from 75 m above sea-level to the present lake level associated with incision and river migration. This observation is in contrast to the basins above marine influence where incision has been limited due to fixed downstream sills resulting in insignificant erosion except for some fan-head entrenchment. It follows that the fills of these small valley basins display progradational and aggradational trends of deposition and paraglacial reworking has been limited. Additionally, the study demonstrates that georadar profiling, combined with other methods, is very useful for comprehensive investigation of valley basins.