The effect of non-gravitational forces on the median inclination of short-period comets

The numbered Jupiter family comets (orbital periods   P < 20 yr  ) have a median orbital inclination of about     . In this paper, we integrate the orbits of these comets into the future, under the influence of both typical non-gravitational forces and planetary perturbation, using a Bulirsch–Stoer integrator. In the case where non-gravitational forces were not acting, the median inclination of those comets that remained on   P < 20 yr  orbits increased at the rate of  (1.92 ± 0.12) × 10⁻³ deg yr⁻¹  for the first 3600 yr of the integration. During this time the population of the original family decreases, such that the half-life is about 13 200 ± 800 yr. The introduction of non-gravitational forces slows down the rate of increase in inclination to a value of around  (1.23 ± 0.16) × 10⁻³ deg yr⁻¹  . This rate of increase in inclination was found to be only weakly dependent on the non-gravitational parameters used during the integration. After a few thousand years, the rate of change in inclination decreases, and after 20 000 yr the inclinations of those initial Jupiter family members that still have orbits with   P < 20 yr  become constant at about     , independent of whether non-gravitational forces are acting or not. The presently known Jupiter family of comets is losing members at the rate of one in every 67 yr. To maintain the family in equilibrium, Jupiter has to capture comets at a similar rate, and these captured comets have to be of low inclination to compensate for the pumping up of inclinations by gravitational perturbation.     

The stratigraphical significance of deer species in the cromer forest-bed formation

Deer species provide a valuable biostratigraphical tool through Cromer Forest-bed times, due particularly to species turnover between the Early and early Middle Pleistocene. This study is based on the reidentification of 348 fossil antlers. The provenance of most large mammal fossils from the CF-bF, collected over 150 years, was recorded only by the nearest coastal village. None the less, analysis of the cervid taxa by these ‘localities’ reveals interesting patterns. The fauna of the West Runton Freshwater Bed is of early Middle Pleistocene complexion, and that from the foreshore at East Runton is of Early Pleistocene. Pure or nearly pure early Middle Pleistocene assemblages also occur at Kessingland-Pakefield and at Trimingham. At Overstrand, Sidestrand, Mundesley, Bacton and Happisburgh, there is a mixture of Early and early Middle Pleistocene elements. Analysis of Savin's data shows that fossils of earlier species were generally found further down the beach than those of later ones. Late nineteenth century geological surveys, made when bone collecting was at its peak, give additional information about fossil horizons, which in several cases can be related to modern stratigraphical units. Most Early Pleistocene large-mammal bones came from Pastonian conglomerates, in contrast to small-mammal and molluscan assemblages mostly extracted from Pre-Pastonian Crag. However, the diversity of Early Pleistocene CF-bF cervid species in comparison with continental faunas, and their pattern of distribution between sites, suggests they may span more than one chronostratigraphic stage. Early Middle Pleistocene assemblages came from strata now referred to the Cromerian, and the differing proportions of taxa between sites provide limited evidence of time-transgression.     

Collective responsibility amplifies mitigation behaviors

How can individuals be convinced to act on climate change? It is widely assumed that emphasizing personal responsibility for climate change is effective at increasing pro-climate behavior whereas collectively framing the causes of climate change diffuses responsibility and dampens the incentive for individual action. We observe the opposite result. Here we find, across three experiments, that emphasizing collective responsibility for the causes of climate change increases pro-climate monetary donations by approximately 7 % in environmental group members and by 50 % in the general public. Further, highlighting collective responsibility amplifies intent to reduce future carbon emissions. In contrast, focusing on personal responsibility for climate change does not significantly alter donations to climate change advocacy or the intent for future pro-climate behavior. These effects replicate and persist multiple days after treatment.     

A qualitative risk assessment for the impacts of climate change on nationally and internationally important geoheritage sites in Scotland

Climate change is a significant concern for nature conservation in the 21?st century. One of the goals of the 2014 Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme is to identify the consequences of climate change for protected areas and to put in place adaptation or mitigation measures. As a contribution to the process, this paper develops a methodology to identify the relative level of risk to nationally and internationally important geological and geomorphological sites in Scotland from the impacts of climate change. The methodology is based on existing understanding of the likely responses of different types of geosite to specific aspects of climate change, such as changes in rainfall, rising sea levels or increased storminess, and is applied to assess the likelihood of damaging impacts on groups of similar geoheritage features in sites with similar characteristics. The results indicate that 80 (8.8%) of the ～900 nationally and internationally important geoheritage sites in Scotland are at ‘high’ risk from climate change. These include active soft-sediment coastal and fluvial features, finite Quaternary sediment exposures and landforms in coastal and river locations, active periglacial features, sites with palaeoenvironmental records, finite or restricted rock exposures and fossils. Using this risk-based assessment, development of indicative geoheritage climate-change actions have been prioritised for these sites. Depending on the characteristics of the sites, management options may range from ‘do nothing’ to rescue excavations and posterity recording. Monitoring is an essential part of the management process to trigger evidence-based interventions.     

Rangeland management and climate hazards in drylands: dust storms,desertification and the overgrazing debate

This paper examines the theory and supporting evidence for links between desertification, drought and dust storms with a particular focus on studies undertaken in and around the Gobi Desert. Overgrazing of rangeland by pastoralists has been the most commonly cited cause of desertification in global drylands for more than 30 years, but the evidence supporting this link is not always convincing. Nonetheless, overgrazing, desertification and dust storms are frequently connected, regardless. Drought is another well-known and important driver of vegetation cover change. Distinguishing between vegetation cover adversely affected by drought and that reduced by grazing is imperative for policy makers because identifying the incorrect driver of vegetation change risks the development of inappropriate policy.     

Lid tectonics-Preface

正The idea that plate tectonics may not have operated deep in Earth's Precambrian past has a long legacy.What predated plate tectonics is unknown,and advances in data-from geochemical,geological and tectonic,to paleomagnetic,as well as modelling ap-     

The characteristics of asymmetric pedestrian behavior: A preliminary study using passive smartphone location data

Understanding the movements of people is essential for the design and management of urban areas. This article presents a novel approach to understanding the asymmetry in route choice (i.e., the degree to which people choose different walking routes for their outbound and return journeys). The study utilizes a large volume of traces of individual routes, captured using a smartphone application. The routes are aggregated to a regular grid, and matrix statistics are developed to estimate the aggregate degree of route asymmetry for different types of route (shortest, longest, weekday, weekend, etc.). The results suggest that people change their route approximately 15% of the time. Although this varied little when observing trips made at the weekend or on a weekday, people taking journeys that deviated substantially from the shortest possible path were 6 percentage points less likely to change their routes than those taking journeys that were closest to the shortest path (14 and 20% asymmetry, respectively). The absolute length also impacted on the asymmetry of journeys, but not as substantially. This result is important because, for the first time, it reports a correlation between deviation from shortest route and aggregate pedestrian choice.