Long‐term streamflow trends in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin: detecting drivers of change

The catchments in the Loess Plateau, in China's middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin, experienced unprecedented land use changes in the last 50 years as a result of large‐scale soil conservation measure to control soil erosion. The climate of the region also exhibited some levels of change with decreased precipitation and increased temperature. This study combined the time‐trend analysis method with a sensitivity‐based approach and found that annual streamflow in the Loess Plateau decreased significantly since the 1950s and surface runoff trends appear to dominate the streamflow trends in most of the catchments. Annual baseflow exhibited mostly downward trends, but significant upward trends were also observed in 3 out of 38 gauging stations. Mean annual streamflow during 1979?2010 decreased by up to 65% across the catchments compared with the period of 1957?1978, indicating significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Loess Plateau. It is estimated that 70% of the streamflow reduction can be attributed to land use change, while the remaining 30% is associated with climate variability. Land use change because of the soil conservation measures and reduction in precipitation are the key drivers for the observed streamflow trends. These findings are consistent with results of previous studies for the region and appear to be reasonable given the accelerated level of the soil conservation measures implemented since the late 1970s. Changes in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, as indicated by variations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, appear to have also affected the annual streamflow trends. The framework described in this study shows promising results for quantifying the effects of land use change and climate variability on mean annual streamflow of catchments within the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change and river flooding: part 1 classifying the sensitivity of British catchments

Effective national and regional policy guidance on climate change adaptation relies on robust scientific evidence. This two-part series of papers develops and implements a novel scenario-neutral framework enabling an assessment of the vulnerability of flood flows in British catchments to climatic change, to underpin the development of guidance for the flood management community. In this first part, the sensitivity of the 20-year return period flood peak (RP20) to changes in precipitation (P), temperature (T) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) is systematically assessed for 154 catchments. A sensitivity domain of 4,200 scenarios is applied combining 525 and 8 sets of P and T/PE mean monthly changes, respectively, with seasonality incorporated using a single-phase harmonic function. Using the change factor method, the percentage change in RP20 associated with each scenario of the sensitivity domain is calculated, giving flood response surfaces for each catchment. Using a clustering procedure on the response surfaces, the 154 catchments are divided into nine groups: flood sensitivity types. These sensitivity types show that some catchments are (very) sensitive to changes in P but others buffer the response, while the location of catchments of the same type does not show any strong geographical pattern. These results reflect the range of hydrological processes found in Britain, and demonstrate the potential importance of catchment properties (physical and climatic) in the propagation of change in climate to change in floods, and so in characterising the sensitivity types (covered in the companion paper).     

Trial by Fire: natural hazards,mixed-methods and cultural research

This paper considers the issues of research ‘relevance’ and ‘use’ to reflect upon a cultural geography research project on bushfire that did not begin with any specific aim of being useful to policy makers but which has garnered considerable and ongoing interest from a broad audience. It provides an example of how the integration of quantitative and qualitative research methods and data can enhance research into cultural aspects of natural hazards whilst simultaneously playing a key role in ensuring that the research results are of interest to a wide range of groups. Using a mixed-methods research approach was found to provide insight into complex factors that influence attitudes and actions towards bushfire amongst diverse landholders in rural–urban interface areas in south-east Australia. We argue that mixed-methods research is a powerful tool in building and enhancing a cultural geography that has policy relevance, retains analytical depth, and is acceptable to risk managers. The ability of cultural geography through mixed-methods research to illuminate how socio-cultural processes are central to environmental attitudes and preparedness behaviour has direct relevance to recent international discussions of how to manage the vulnerability of the growing number of people living in bushfire-prone rural–urban interface areas.     

CDM and international technology transfer: empirical evidence on wind power

This article examines the effect of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) on the international transfer of wind power technologies. The analysis is conducted using patent data from over 100 countries during the period 1988–2008. It is found that transfers from Annex I countries to non-Annex I countries are significantly affected by the contemporaneous establishment of projects under the CDM. However, when taking into account the cumulative effect of CDM projects, the effect is negative. Finally, the effect of domestic absorptive capacity in the host country is positive and significant. Because involvement with the CDM may increase the latter, this is an important area for further research.     

Geochemistry and chronology of the Bunburra Rockhole ungrouped achondrite

Bunburra Rockhole is a unique basaltic achondrite that has many mineralogical and petrographic characteristics in common with the noncumulate eucrites, but differs in its oxygen isotope composition. Here, we report a study of the mineralogy, petrology, geochemistry, and chronology of Bunburra Rockhole to better understand the petrogenesis of this meteorite and compare it to the eucrites. The geochemistry of bulk samples and of pyroxene, plagioclase, and Ca‐phosphate in Bunburra Rockhole is similar to that of typical noncumulate eucrites. Chronological data for Bunburra Rockhole indicate early formation, followed by slow cooling and perhaps multiple subsequent heating events, which is also similar to some noncumulate eucrites. The ²⁶Al‐²⁶Mg extinct radionuclide chronometer was reset in Bunburra Rockhole after the complete decay of ²⁶Al, but a slight excess in the radiogenic ²⁶Mg in a bulk sample allows the determination of a model ²⁶Al‐²⁶Mg age that suggests formation of the parent melt for this meteorite from its source magma within the first ~3 Ma of the beginning of the solar system. The ²⁰⁷Pb‐²⁰⁶Pb absolute chronometer is also disturbed in Bunburra Rockhole minerals, but a whole‐rock isochron provides a re‐equilibration age of ~4.1 Ga, most likely caused by impact heating. The mineralogy, geochemistry, and chronology of Bunburra Rockhole demonstrate the similarities of this achondrite to the eucrites, and suggest that it formed from a parent melt with a composition similar to that for noncumulate eucrites and subsequently experienced a thermal history and evolution comparable to that of eucritic basalts. This implies the formation of multiple differentiated parent bodies in the early solar system that had nearly identical bulk elemental compositions and petrogenetic histories, but different oxygen isotope compositions inherited from the solar nebula.     

Radiocarbon and 230Th data reveal rapid redistribution and temporal changes in sediment focussing at a North Atlantic drift

In locations of rapid sediment accumulation receiving substantial amounts of laterally transported material the timescales of transport and accurate quantification of the transported material are at the focus of intense research. Here we present radiocarbon data obtained on co-occurring planktic foraminifera, marine haptophyte biomarkers (alkenones) and total organic carbon (TOC) coupled with excess Thorium-230 (²³⁰Th_xs) measurements on four sediment cores retrieved in 1649–2879 m water depth from two such high accumulation drift deposits in the Northeast Atlantic, Björn and Gardar Drifts. While ²³⁰Th_xs inventories imply strong sediment focussing, no age offsets are observed between planktic foraminifera and alkenones, suggesting that redistribution of sediments is rapid and occurs soon after formation of marine organic matter, or that transported material contains negligible amounts of alkenones. An isotopic mass balance calculation based on radiocarbon concentrations of co-occurring sediment components leads us to estimate that transported sediment components contain up to 12% of fossil organic matter that is free of or very poor in alkenones, but nevertheless appears to consist of a mixture of fresh and eroded fossil material. Considering all available constraints to characterize transported material, our results show that although focussing factors calculated from bulk sediment ²³⁰Th_xs inventories may allow useful approximations of bulk redeposition, they do not provide a unique estimate of the amount of each laterally transported sediment component. Furthermore, our findings provide evidence that the occurrence of lateral sediment redistribution alone does not always hinder the use of multiple proxies but that individual sediment fractions are affected to variable extents by sediment focussing.