Dating deformation using crushed alkali feldspar: 40Ar/39Ar geochronology of shear zones in the Wyangala Batholith,NSW, Australia

Diffusion parameters have been estimated for K-feldspar in and adjacent to mylonite shear zones in the Wyangala Batholith. The parameters obtained suggest that deformation during mylonitisation would have caused argon systematics to reset because diffusion distances were reduced by cataclasis, deformation and/or recrystallisation. However, the mineral lattice remained sufficiently retentive to allow subsequently produced radiogenic argon to be retained. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology is thus able to constrain operation of these biotite-grade ductile shear zones to the period from ca 380 Ma to ca 360 Ma, at the end of the Tabberabberan Orogeny.     

Potential loading damage to industrial storage tanks due to volcanic ash fallout

The phenomenon of volcanic fallout ash from Mt. Etna in Sicily (Italy) is well known and frequent in recent years, as in the period 2001–2004. As a consequence, significant problems for the population, road, rail and air traffic and production activities have occurred. The industrial areas of Catania and Augusta-Priolo, located in south eastern Sicily, might be involved during particular weather conditions. This paper aims at determining the potential scenarios of damage to industrial facilities caused by volcanic ash fallout. The work has been focused on the study of both fixed and floating roof storage tanks, containing flammable liquids, and examines extreme failures damage causing the greatest loss of containment for these facilities. To include scenarios arising from natural phenomena (Na-Tech events) in the standard risk assessment procedure, the estimation of the vulnerability of these facilities is necessary. The study has been applied to the area surrounding Mt. Etna, and the procedure can also be extended to other case studies.     

Using fine‐scale catch predictions to examine spatial variation in growth and catchability of Panulirus cygnus along the west coast of Australia

Puerulus settlement has been monitored throughout the western rock lobster Panulirus cygnus fishery for nearly 40 years. These data, in combination with indices of effort and water temperature, were used to produce recruitment‐catch relationships for each 1° transect of latitude in the coastal part of this fishery from Kalbarri to Cape Leeuwin, as well as at the offshore Abrolhos Islands (total of eight transects). The fine spatial scales of these models provided estimates of certain life history traits that are known to affect lobster catches between adjacent fishing ports. This catch modelling showed that the proportions of 3‐ and 4‐year‐old post‐settlement lobsters contributing to the catches varied markedly from the southern to northern transects, suggesting that juvenile lobsters grow substantially faster in the warmer northern and offshore waters of this fishery. These proportions provide accurate estimates of juvenile growth rates, which are vital in the construction of location‐specific growth algorithms required by the age‐structured models used in the management of this fishery. Model estimates of density‐dependent mortality were greater in the more densely populated centre of the fishery and markedly lower at the northern and southern limits of this species distribution. Annual increases in fishing efficiency were also found to be lowest at the northern and southern extremes of the fishery and greatest in the centre of the fishery, where technology advances and increased fleet mobility have enabled the fleet to increase efficiency by 1–3% each year. Catchability (q) was found to be most influenced by water temperatures in the cooler southern transects, whereas at the Abrolhos Islands, changes in water temperature produced almost no discernable change in q. The catch modelling was also used to quantify the impact of management changes introduced in the 1993/94 fishing season. Increased protection of female lobsters and an 18% pot reduction resulted in a 3–4% permanent reduction in the catch rates of lobsters throughout most of the coastal fishery, whereas at the offshore Abrolhos Islands, catch rates increased by c. 20%, presumably owing to a reduction in the level of pot saturation.     

Impact of lunar cycle and swell on the daily catch rate of western rock lobster (Panulirus cygnus) using time series modelling

The western rock lobster fishery is one of the most valuable single‐species fisheries in Australia, valued at AU$300 million per year. The impact of environmental factors such as lunar cycle and swell on the daily catch rate of the western rock lobster (Panulirus cynus) is of particular interest in the stock assessment and management of the fishery. The variation in daily catch rates was examined for two periods (migrating period November‐January, non‐migrating period February‐June), at different depths in three management zones for three categories of lobster (undersize, legal size, and setose). Regression and transfer function models for relationships between catch rates and environmental data were considered and compared. The lunar cycle has a significant impact on the daily catch rates with c. 30% lower catch rate during the full moon and c. 20% higher catches near the new moon. This impact occurs mainly during the non‐migrating period both in deep water (40–100 m) and shallow water (<40 m). The swell on the day before fishing was also shown to be significantly related to the catch rate with an increase of c. 10–15% for an increase in swell from light to moderate or moderate to high. These environmental factors can be used to standardise catch rates to provide an improved abundance index for stock assessment. Also, management closures are being considered for 3–5 days over the low catch rate, full moon period to reduce fishing costs and lower fishing effort.     

Using tolerance intervals to assess recovery of mussel beds impacted by the Exxon Valdez oil spill

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) have been measured in mussel tissues in early spring and summer since 1993 throughout Prince William Sound (PWS) and the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Season-specific thresholds were established at reference sites to identify ‘above background’ total PAH levels. Thresholds were estimated using one-sided 99% tolerance limits. Thresholds were similar across reference sites but differed by an order of magnitude across seasons. Trends in total PAH since 1998 were assessed for sites impacted by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill or the Alyeska Marine Terminal. Summer samples exhibited no trends; early spring samples declined. In early spring, all sites were judged ‘recovered’ by 2004; in summer, one site in western Prince William Sound and two in the western GOA exceeded thresholds by 11 ng/g dry weight or less. Robust estimation methods prevented bias from observations affected by unknown releases or laboratory errors.     

Quantification of the effect of forest harvesting versus climate on streamflow cycles and trends in an evergreen broadleaf catchment

ABSTRACT

A new method known as Unobserved Components–Dynamic Harmonic Regression (UC-DHR) was applied to a 39-year record of rainfall and streamflow for three sub-catchments of the Sarukawa Experimental Watershed in southwestern Japan. Some 25% of the timber was harvested from one of the sub-catchments in May–July 1982 and the objective was to quantify the magnitude of this effect relative to the effects of climate cycles (e.g. Southern Oscillation Index). The observed effects of inter-annual climate cycles (i.e. 0.89–1.36 mm/d) were seen to be comparable (i.e. 0.70–1.17 mm/d) to the effects of harvesting 25% of the standing timber. This result underlines the importance of always quantifying the effect of climate on streamflow response when harvesting impacts are studied.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor T. Okruszko     

Tsunami impact assessment: development of vulnerability matrix for critical infrastructure and application to Christchurch,New Zealand

Natural Hazards - Tsunamis can have severe impacts on society. In addition to casualties and damage to buildings, they can also damage and disrupt critical infrastructure. To support effective risk...     

Towards spatially distributed quantitative assessment of tsunami inundation models

This paper presents a framework and data for spatially distributed assessment of tsunami inundation models. Our associated validation test is based upon the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which affords a uniquely large amount of observational data for events of this kind. Specifically, we use eyewitness accounts to assess onshore flow depths and speeds as well as a detailed inundation survey of Patong City, Thailand to compare modelled and observed inundation. Model predictions matched well the detailed inundation survey as well as altimetry data from the JASON satellite, eyewitness accounts of wave front arrival times and onshore flow speeds. Important buildings and other structures were incorporated into the underlying elevation model and are shown to have a large influence on inundation extent.