An evaluation of systems for the integrated assessment of capture fisheries

Integrated fishery assessments are intended to take an integrated and wholistic view of fisheries management, to provide comprehensive systems-based evaluations of the sustainability of individual fisheries and their products. Using guidance derived from decision theory and management science, we develop 18 criteria to evaluate the likely effectiveness of nine integrated fishery assessment systems. The assessment systems do not consistently consider four key criteria: the socio-economic impacts of fisheries, the provision of food security, the local relevance of the assessment to the fishery under assessment, and the independent peer review of assessment outcomes. Other important areas of weakness include the lack of appropriate consultation processes relating to both the design of the assessment system and the outcomes of fishery assessments, and limitations in the quality of data and information used in assessments. Improvements will be needed in these areas across all the systems we evaluated if fishers, consumers, managers and other stakeholders are to be provided with consistently reliable assessment outcomes, and an assurance of the sustainability of capture fisheries.     

Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes

Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.     

Chemical alteration of tephra in the depositional environment: theoretical stability modelling

The study of the chemical stability of vitreous material in aqueous media is well‐established. There has to date been little consideration of the implications of variations in the chemical durability of tephra in Quaternary tephrochronology. Chemical alteration can take the form of cationic leaching from the matrix, or complete destruction of the silica network, either of which could constrain the ability to chemically identify distal tephra. Here we apply established models of vitreous durability to the published chemical analyses of a large number of Icelandic tephras in order to predict their relative durabilities under equivalent conditions. This suggests that some important tephras have relatively poor chemical stability, and that rhyolitic tephras are, in general, more stable than basaltic. We conclude that tephras should be expected to show predictable differential chemical stability in the post‐depositional environment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In situ calcite U−Pb geochronology by high-sensitivity single-collector LA-SF-ICP-MS

Science China Earth Sciences - U?Pb geochronology of calcite using laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) is an emerging method, with potential applications...     

Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness

Hazard maps are considered essential tools in the communication of volcanic risk between scientists, the local authorities and the public. This study investigates the efficacy of such maps for the volcanic island of Montserrat in the West Indies using both quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Normal plan view maps, which have been used on the island over the last 10 years of the crisis, are evaluated against specially produced three-dimensional (3D) maps and perspective photographs. Thirty-two demographically representative respondents of mixed backgrounds, sex, education and location were interviewed and asked to complete a range of tasks and identification on the maps and photographs. The overall results show that ordinary people have problems interpreting their environment as a mapped representation. We found respondents’ ability to locate and orientate themselves as well as convey information relating to volcanic hazards was improved when using aerial photographs rather than traditional plan view contour maps. There was a slight improvement in the use of the 3D maps, especially in terms of topographic recognition. However, the most striking increase in effectiveness was found with the perspective photographs, which enabled people to identify features and their orientation much more readily. For Montserrat it appears that well labelled aerial and perspective photographs are the most effective geo-spatial method of communicating volcanic risks.

Finite Element Solvers for Biot’s Poroelasticity Equations in Porous Media

We study and compare five different combinations of finite element spaces for approximating the coupled flow and solid deformation system, so-called Biot’s equations. The permeability and porosity fields are heterogeneous and depend on solid displacement and fluid pressure. We provide detailed comparisons among the continuous Galerkin, discontinuous Galerkin, enriched Galerkin, and two types of mixed finite element methods. Several advantages and disadvantages for each of the above techniques are investigated by comparing local mass conservation properties, the accuracy of the flux approximation, number of degrees of freedom (DOF), and wall and CPU times. Three-field formulation methods with fluid velocity as an additional primary variable generally require a larger number of DOF, longer wall and CPU times, and a greater number of iterations in the linear solver in order to converge. The two-field formulation, a combination of continuous and enriched Galerkin function space, requires the fewest DOF among the methods that conserve local mass. Moreover, our results illustrate that three out of the five methods conserve local mass and produce similar flux approximations when conductivity alteration is included. These comparisons of the key performance indicators of different combinations of finite element methods can be utilized to choose the preferred method based on the required accuracy and the available computational resources.

     

Seasonal distributions of suspended particulate material and dissolved nutrients in a coastal plain estuary

The temporal and spatial distributions of salinity, dissolved oxygen, suspended particulate material (SPM), and dissolved nutrients were determined during 1983 in the Choptank River, an estuarine tributary of Chesapeake Bay. During winter and spring freshets, the middle estuary was strongly stratified with changes in salinity of up to 5‰ occurring over 1 m depth intervals. Periodically, the lower estuary was stratified due to the intrusion of higher salinity water from the main channel of Chesapeake Bay. During summer this intrusion caused minimum oxygen and maximum NH₄ ⁺ concentrations at the mouth of the Choptank River estuary. Highest concentrations of SPM, particulate carbon (PC), particulate nitrogen (PN), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorous (TP) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) occurred in the upper estuary during the early spring freshet. In contrast, minimum soluble reactive phosphate (SRP) concentrations were highest in the upper estuary in summer when freshwater discharge was low. In spring, PC:PN ratios were >13, indicating a strong influence by allochthonous plant detritus on PC and PN concentrations. However, high concentrations of PC and PN in fall coincided with maximum chlorophyll a concentrations and PC:PN ratios were <8, indicating in situ productivity controlled PC and PN levels. During late spring and summer, DIN concentrations decreased from >100 to <10 μg-at l^?1, resulting mainly from the nonconservative behavior of NO₃ ^?, which dominated the DIN pool. Atomic ratios of both the inorganic and total forms of N and P exceeded 100 in spring, but by summer, ratios decreased to <5 and <15, respectively. The seasonal and spatial changes in both absolute concentrations and ratios of N and P reflect the strong influence of allochthonous inputs on nutrient distributions in spring, followed by the effects of internal processes in summer and fall.     

Sedimentary recycling in arc magmas: geochemical and U–Pb–Hf–O constraints on the Mesoproterozoic Suldal Arc, SW Norway

The Hardangervidda-Rogaland Block within southwest Norway is host to ~1.52 to 1.48 Ga continental building and variable reworking during the ~1.1 to 0.9 Ga Sveconorwegian orogeny. Due to the lack of geochronological and geochemical data, the timing and tectonic setting of early Mesoproterozoic magmatism has long been ambiguous. This paper presents zircon U–Pb–Hf–O isotope data combined with whole-rock geochemistry to address the age and petrogenesis of basement units within the Suldal region, located in the centre of the Hardangervidda-Rogaland Block. The basement comprises variably deformed grey gneisses and granitoids that petrologically and geochemically resemble mature volcanic arc lithologies. U–Pb ages confirm that magmatism occurred from ~1,521 to 1,485 Ma, and conspicuously lack any xenocrystic inheritance of distinctly older crust. Hafnium isotope data range from εHf_(initial) +1 to +11, suggesting a rather juvenile magmatic source, but with possible involvement of late Palaeoproterozoic crust. Oxygen isotope data range from mantle-like (δ¹⁸O ~5 ‰) to elevated (~10 ‰) suggesting involvement of low-temperature altered material (e.g., supracrustal rocks) in the magma source. The Hf–O isotope array is compatible with mixing between mantle-derived material with young low-temperature altered material (oceanic crust/sediments) and older low-temperature altered material (continent-derived sediments). This, combined with a lack of xenoliths and xenocrysts, exposed older crust, AFC trends and S-type geochemistry, all point to mixing within a deep-crustal magma-generation zone. A proposed model comprises accretion of altered oceanic crust and the overlying sediments to a pre-existing continental margin, underthrusting to the magma-generation zone and remobilisation during arc magmatism. The geodynamic setting for this arc magmatism is comparable with that seen in the Phanerozoic (e.g., the Sierra Nevada and Coast Range batholiths), with compositions in the Suldal Sector reaching those of average upper continental crust. As within these younger examples, factors that drive magmatism towards the composition of the average continental crust include the addition of sedimentary material to magma source regions, and delamination of cumulate material. Underthrusting of sedimentary materials and their subsequent involvement in arc magmatism is perhaps a more widespread mechanism involved in continental growth than is currently recognised. Finally, the Suldal Arc magmatism represents a significant juvenile crustal addition to SW Fennoscandia.     

Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point, since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and 1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these events increases by a factor 4–5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases in damage exposure.