The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

During June and July of 2020, the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding. This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event, based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system. The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin, which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature (SST) and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH, and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well. We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet (EAJ). The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall. However, the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall. In observations, the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020, which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin, and favor more mei-yu rainfall. The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes. This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall, hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.     

Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness

Hazard maps are considered essential tools in the communication of volcanic risk between scientists, the local authorities and the public. This study investigates the efficacy of such maps for the volcanic island of Montserrat in the West Indies using both quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Normal plan view maps, which have been used on the island over the last 10 years of the crisis, are evaluated against specially produced three-dimensional (3D) maps and perspective photographs. Thirty-two demographically representative respondents of mixed backgrounds, sex, education and location were interviewed and asked to complete a range of tasks and identification on the maps and photographs. The overall results show that ordinary people have problems interpreting their environment as a mapped representation. We found respondents’ ability to locate and orientate themselves as well as convey information relating to volcanic hazards was improved when using aerial photographs rather than traditional plan view contour maps. There was a slight improvement in the use of the 3D maps, especially in terms of topographic recognition. However, the most striking increase in effectiveness was found with the perspective photographs, which enabled people to identify features and their orientation much more readily. For Montserrat it appears that well labelled aerial and perspective photographs are the most effective geo-spatial method of communicating volcanic risks.

Experimental investigations of trace element fractionation in iron meteorites,II: The influence of sulfur

We have investigated the partitioning of Ir. Ge, Ga, W, Cr, Au, P, and Ni between solid metal and metallic liquid as a function of temperature and S-concentration of the metallic liquid. Partition coefficients for siderophile elements such as Ir, W, Ga and Ge increase by factors of 10–100 as the Sconcentration of the metallic liquid increases from 0–30 wt%. Partition coefficients for other siderophile elements such as Ni, Au and P increase by only factors of 2–3. In contrast, partition coefficients for the more chalcophile element Cr decrease. These experimentally-determined partition coefficients have been used in conjunction with a fractional crystallization model to reproduce the geochemical behavior of Ni, P, Au and Ir during the magmatic evolution of groups IIAB, IIIAB, IVA and IVB iron meteorites. The mean S-concentration for each group increases in the order IVB, IVA, IIIAB, IIAB, in accord with cosmochemical prediction. However, we are unable to reproduce the geochemical behavior of Ge, Ga, W and Cr in an internally consistent way. We conclude that the magmatic histories of these iron meteorite groups are more complex than has been generally assumed.     

Domestic and international arrivals of NOBOB (no ballast on board) vessels to lower Chesapeake Bay

In examining ship-mediated biological invasions, most research and treatment development has focused on ballast water. Another vector that has gained attention recently is vessels arriving in a "no ballast on board" (NOBOB) condition. Such ships retain relatively small, unpumpable volumes of water and sediment in their ballast tanks. Nonetheless, these unpumpable portions can represent great ecological risk. This scenario is relevant in the Great Lakes, which have experienced a dramatic series of introductions, despite most vessels arriving there as NOBOBs since 1994. We examined shipping patterns of NOBOBs arriving to lower Chesapeake Bay to begin evaluating their risk of biopollution. Only 14% of ships arrive as NOBOBs, and of those, 17% depart to another port in the upper bay. Most NOBOBs arrive from or leave for other US ports; proximate trans-Atlantic crossings are few. Given the nature of their operations, we conclude NOBOBs may represent a risk for aquatic nuisance species invasions to Chesapeake Bay.     

Response of the suspended sediment transport system to continental shelf dynamics

Surface currents influenced by a wind-driven upwelling event in San Pedro Bay moved total suspended matter (TSM) confined to the inner shelf on 19 April 1978 seaward, so that by 27 April surface TSM had increased over the outer shelf. Near-bottom concentrations of TSM also increased across the shelf during this time. This is explained by sediment resuspended by large surface waves being advected from the inner shelf seaward by the mean flow after this flow had turned from southeasterly to southerly when upwelling ceased on 26 April. These complex shelf dynamics contribute to the off-shelf transport of mud to the slope and deep basins.     

Discussion of “Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers”

Citation Abrahart, R.J. & Mount, N.J. (2011) Discussion of “Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers by S.A. Mirgagheri et al. (2010, Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1175–1189).” Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1325–1329.     

Sedimentary recycling in arc magmas: geochemical and U–Pb–Hf–O constraints on the Mesoproterozoic Suldal Arc, SW Norway

The Hardangervidda-Rogaland Block within southwest Norway is host to ~1.52 to 1.48 Ga continental building and variable reworking during the ~1.1 to 0.9 Ga Sveconorwegian orogeny. Due to the lack of geochronological and geochemical data, the timing and tectonic setting of early Mesoproterozoic magmatism has long been ambiguous. This paper presents zircon U–Pb–Hf–O isotope data combined with whole-rock geochemistry to address the age and petrogenesis of basement units within the Suldal region, located in the centre of the Hardangervidda-Rogaland Block. The basement comprises variably deformed grey gneisses and granitoids that petrologically and geochemically resemble mature volcanic arc lithologies. U–Pb ages confirm that magmatism occurred from ~1,521 to 1,485 Ma, and conspicuously lack any xenocrystic inheritance of distinctly older crust. Hafnium isotope data range from εHf_(initial) +1 to +11, suggesting a rather juvenile magmatic source, but with possible involvement of late Palaeoproterozoic crust. Oxygen isotope data range from mantle-like (δ¹⁸O ~5 ‰) to elevated (~10 ‰) suggesting involvement of low-temperature altered material (e.g., supracrustal rocks) in the magma source. The Hf–O isotope array is compatible with mixing between mantle-derived material with young low-temperature altered material (oceanic crust/sediments) and older low-temperature altered material (continent-derived sediments). This, combined with a lack of xenoliths and xenocrysts, exposed older crust, AFC trends and S-type geochemistry, all point to mixing within a deep-crustal magma-generation zone. A proposed model comprises accretion of altered oceanic crust and the overlying sediments to a pre-existing continental margin, underthrusting to the magma-generation zone and remobilisation during arc magmatism. The geodynamic setting for this arc magmatism is comparable with that seen in the Phanerozoic (e.g., the Sierra Nevada and Coast Range batholiths), with compositions in the Suldal Sector reaching those of average upper continental crust. As within these younger examples, factors that drive magmatism towards the composition of the average continental crust include the addition of sedimentary material to magma source regions, and delamination of cumulate material. Underthrusting of sedimentary materials and their subsequent involvement in arc magmatism is perhaps a more widespread mechanism involved in continental growth than is currently recognised. Finally, the Suldal Arc magmatism represents a significant juvenile crustal addition to SW Fennoscandia.     

Basaltic and Solution Reference Materials for Iron,Copper and Zinc Isotope Measurements

Iron, Cu and Zn stable isotope systems are applied in constraining a variety of geochemical and environmental processes. Secondary reference materials have been developed by the Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences (CAGS), in collaboration with other participating laboratories, comprising three solutions (CAGS‐Fe, CAGS‐Cu and CAGS‐Zn) and one basalt (CAGS‐Basalt). These materials exhibit sufficient homogeneity and stability for application in Fe, Cu and Zn isotopic ratio determinations. Reference values were determined by inter‐laboratory analytical comparisons involving up to eight participating laboratories employing MC‐ICP‐MS techniques, based on the unweighted means of submitted results. Isotopic compositions are reported in per mil notation, based on reference materials IRMM‐014 for Fe, NIST SRM 976 for Cu and IRMM‐3702 for Zn. Respective reference values of CAGS‐Fe, CAGS‐Cu and CAGS‐Zn solutions are as follows: δ⁵⁶Fe = 0.83 ± 0.07 and δ⁵⁷Fe = 1.20 ± 0.13, δ⁶⁵Cu = 0.57 ± 0.06, and δ⁶⁶Zn = ?0.79 ± 0.12 and δ⁶⁸Zn = ?1.65 ± 0.24, respectively. Those of CAGS‐Basalt are δ⁵⁶Fe = 0.15 ± 0.07, δ⁵⁷Fe = 0.22 ± 0.10, δ⁶⁵Cu = 0.12 ± 0.08, δ⁶⁶Zn = 0.17 ± 0.13, and δ⁶⁸Zn = 0.34 ± 0.26 (2s).