Holocene climate and glacier variability at Hallet and Greyling Lakes,Chugach Mountains,south-central Alaska

Evidence from lake sediments and glacier forefields from two hydrologically isolated lake basins is used to reconstruct Holocene glacier and climate history at Hallet and Greyling Lakes in the central Chugach Mountains of south-central Alaska. Glacial landform mapping, lichenometry, and equilibrium-line altitude reconstructions, along with changes in sedimentary biogenic-silica content, bulk density, and grain-size distribution indicate a dynamic history of Holocene climate variability. The evidence suggests a warm early Holocene from 10 to 6 ka, followed by the onset of Neoglaciation in the two drainage basins, beginning between 4.5 and 4.0 ka. During the past 2 ka, the glacial landforms and lacustrine sediments from the two valleys record a remarkably similar history of glaciation, with two primary advances, one during the first millennium AD, from ~500 to 800 AD, and the second during the Little Ice Age (LIA) from ~1400 to 1900 AD. During the LIA, the reconstructed equilibrium-line altitude in the region was no more than 83 ± 44 m (n = 21) lower than the modern, which is based on the extent of glaciers during 1978. Differences between the summer temperature inferred from the biogenic-silica content and the evidence for glacial advances and retreats suggest a period of increased winter precipitation from 1300 to 1500 AD, and reduced winter precipitation from 1800 to 1900 AD, likely associated with variability in the strength of the Aleutian Low.

Reduced‐complexity flow routing models for sinuous single‐thread channels: intercomparison with a physically‐based shallow‐water equation model

Reduced‐complexity models of fluvial processes use simple rules that neglect much of the underlying governing physics. This approach is justified by the potential to use these models to investigate long‐term and/or fundamental river behaviour. However, little attention has been given to the validity or realism of reduced‐complexity process parameterizations, despite the fact that the assumptions inherent in these approaches may limit the potential for elucidating the behaviour of natural rivers. This study presents two new reduced‐complexity flow routing schemes developed specifically for application in single‐thread rivers. Output from both schemes is compared with that from a more sophisticated model that solves the depth‐averaged shallow water equations. This comparison provides the first demonstration of the potential for deriving realistic predictions of in‐channel flow depth, unit discharge, energy slope and unit stream power using simple flow routing schemes. It also highlights the inadequacy of modelling unit stream power, shear stress or sediment transport capacity as a function of local bed slope, as has been common practice in a number of previous reduced‐complexity models. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical and isotopic compositions of thermal springs,fumaroles and bubbling gases at Tacaná Volcano (Mexico–Guatemala): implications for volcanic surveillance

This study presents baseline data for future geochemical monitoring of the active Tacaná volcano–hydrothermal system (Mexico–Guatemala). Seven groups of thermal springs, related to a NW/SE-oriented fault scarp cutting the summit area (4,100m a.s.l.), discharge at the northwest foot of the volcano (1,500–2,000m a.s.l.); another one on the southern ends of Tacaná (La Calera). The near-neutral (pH from 5.8 to 6.9) thermal (T from 25.7°C to 63.0°C) HCO₃–SO₄ waters are thought to have formed by the absorption of a H₂S/SO₂–CO₂-enriched steam into a Cl-rich geothermal aquifer, afterwards mixed by Na/HCO₃-enriched meteoric waters originating from the higher elevations of the volcano as stated by the isotopic composition (δD and δ¹⁸O) of meteoric and spring waters. Boiling temperature fumaroles (89°C at ~3,600m a.s.l. NW of the summit), formed after the May 1986 phreatic explosion, emit isotopically light vapour (δD and δ¹⁸O as low as −128 and −19.9‰, respectively) resulting from steam separation from the summit aquifer. Fumarolic as well as bubbling gases at five springs are CO₂-dominated. The δ¹³C_CO2 for all gases show typical magmatic values of −3.6 ± 1.3‰ vs V-PDB. The large range in ³He/⁴He ratios for bubbling, dissolved and fumarolic gases [from 1.3 to 6.9 atmospheric ³He/⁴He ratio (R _A)] is ascribed to a different degree of near-surface boiling processes inside a heterogeneous aquifer at the contact between the volcanic edifice and the crystalline basement (⁴He source). Tacaná volcano offers a unique opportunity to give insight into shallow hydrothermal and deep magmatic processes affecting the CO₂/³He ratio of gases: bubbling springs with lower gas/water ratios show higher ³He/⁴He ratios and consequently lower CO₂/³He ratios (e.g. Zarco spring). Typical Central American CO₂/³He and ³He/⁴He ratios are found for the fumarolic Agua Caliente and Zarco gases (3.1 ± 1.6 × 10¹⁰ and 6.0 ± 0.9 R _A, respectively). The L/S (5.9 ± 0.5) and (L + S)/M ratios (9.2 ± 0.7) for the same gases are almost identical to the ones calculated for gases in El Salvador, suggesting an enhanced slab contribution as far as the northern extreme of the Central American Volcanic Arc, Tacaná.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Switzerland: best estimates and uncertainties

We present the results of a new genera tion of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Switzerland. This study replaces the previous intensity-based generation of national hazard maps of 1978. Based on a revised moment-magnitude earthquake catalog for Switzerland and the surrounding regions, covering the period 1300–2003, sets of recurrence parameters (a and b values, M _max ) are estimated. Information on active faulting in Switzerland is too sparse to be used as source model. We develop instead two models of areal sources. The first oriented towards capturing historical and instrumental seismicity, the second guided largely by tectonic principles and express ing the alterative view that seismicity is less stationary and thus future activity may occur in previously quiet regions. To estimate three alterna tive a and b value sets and their relative weighting, we introduce a novel approach based on the modified Akaike information criterion, which allows us to decide when the data in a zone deserves to be fitted with a zone-specific b value. From these input parameters, we simulate synthetic earthquake catalogs of one-million-year duration down to magnitude 4.0, which also reflect the difference in depth distribution between the Alpine Foreland and the Alps. Using a specific predictive spectral ground motion model for Switzerland, we estimate expected ground motions in units of the 5% damped acceleration response spectrum at frequencies of 0.5–10 Hz for all of Switzerland, referenced to rock sites with an estimated shear wave velocity of 1,500 m/s² in the upper 30 m. The highest hazard is found in the Wallis, in the Basel region, in Graubünden and along the Alpine front, with maximum spectral accelerations at 5 Hz frequency reaching 150 cm/s² for a return period of 475 years and 720 cm/s² for 10,000 years. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Refining Population Surface Models: Experiments with Northern Ireland Census Data

This paper compares and contrasts alternative methods for the construction of discontinuous population surface models based on the census and remotely sensed data from Northern Ireland. Two main methods of population distribution are employed: (1) a method based on redistribution from enumeration district (ED) and postcode centroids, and (2) a method based on dasymetric redistribution of ED population counts to suitable land cover zones from classified remotely sensed imagery. Refinements have been made to the centroid redistribution algorithm to accommodate an empirical measure of dispersion, and to allow redistribution in an anisotropic form. These refinements are evaluated against each other and the dasymetric method. The results suggest that all of the methods perform best in urban areas, and that while the refinements may improve the statistical performance of the models, this is at the expense of reduced spatial detail. In general, the techniques are highly sensitive to the spatial and population resolution of the input data.     

Chute channel dynamics in large,sand‐bed meandering rivers

Meander bends of many large, sand‐bed meandering rivers are partitioned by chute channels that convey permanent flow, and co‐exist with the mainstem for decades. As a first step toward understanding the dynamics and morphodynamic implications of these ‘bifurcate meander bends’, this study applied binary logistic regression analysis to determine whether it is possible to predict chute initiation based on attributes of meander bend character and dynamics. Regression models developed for the Strickland River, Papua New Guinea, the lower Paraguay River, Paraguay/Argentina, and the Beni River, Bolivia, revealed that the probability of chute initiation at a meander bend is a function of the bend extension rate (the rate at which a bend elongates in a direction perpendicular to the valley axis trend). Image analyses of all rivers and field observations from the Strickland suggest that the majority of chute channels form during scroll–slough development. Rapid extension is shown to favour chute initiation by breaking the continuity of point bar deposition and vegetation encroachment at the inner bank, resulting in widely‐spaced scrolls with intervening sloughs that are positively aligned with primary over‐bar flow. The rivers plot in order of increasing chute activity on an empirical meandering‐braided pattern continuum defined by potential specific stream power (ω_pv) and bedload calibre (D₅₀). Increasing stream power is considered to result in higher bend extension rates, with implications for chute initiation. In addition, chute stability is shown to depend on river sediment load relative to flow discharge (Qs/Q), such that while the Beni may plot in the region of highly braided rivers by virtue of a high potential specific stream power, the formation of stable chute channels is suppressed by the high sediment load. This tendency is consistent with previous experimental studies, and results in a planform that is transitional between single‐thread meandering and braided. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interaction between meander dynamics and floodplain heterogeneity in a large tropical sand‐bed river: the Rio Beni,Bolivian Amazon

The evolution of meandering river floodplains is predominantly controlled by the interplay between overbank sedimentation and channel migration. The resulting spatial heterogeneity in floodplain deposits leads to variability in bank erodibility, which in turn influences channel migration and planform development. Despite the potential significance of these feedbacks, few studies have quantified their impact upon channel evolution and floodplain construction in dynamic settings (e.g. locations characterized by rapid channel migration and high rates of overbank sedimentation). This study employs a combination of field observations, geographic information system (GIS) analysis of satellite imagery and numerical modelling to investigate these issues along a 375 km reach of the Rio Beni in the Bolivian Amazon. Results demonstrate that the occurrence of clay‐rich floodplain deposits promotes a significant reduction in channel migration rates and distinctive styles of channel evolution, including channel straightening and immobilization of bend apices leading to channel narrowing. Clay bodies act as stable locations limiting the propagation of planform disturbances in both upstream and downstream directions, and operate as ‘hinge’ points, around which the channel migrates. Spatial variations in the erodibility of clay‐rich floodplain material also promote large‐scale (10–50 km) differences in channel sinuosity and migration, although these variables are also likely to be influenced by channel gradient and tectonic effects that are difficult to quantify. Numerical model results suggest that spatial heterogeneity in bank erodibility, driven by variable bank composition, may force a substantial (c. 30%) reduction in average channel sinuosity, compared to situations in which bank strength is spatially homogeneous. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Repeat Sampling and Coliform Bacteria Detection Rates in New Jersey Domestic Wells

In compliance with the New Jersey Private Well Testing Act, 78,546 wells (93,787 samples, including samples from 13,290 wells that were analyzed more than once) were analyzed for total coliform (TC) bacteria by one or more of 39 laboratories over a 10‐year period. Samples containing TC bacteria were further analyzed for the presence of either fecal coliform or E. coli (FC/EC) bacteria. The large population of wells sampled multiple times permitted a systematic study of the effect of repeat sampling on coliform bacteria detection rates. The detection rate increased with the number of times wells were sampled. In bedrock, TC bacteria were detected in 21% of the population of wells analyzed only once, 33% in the population sampled twice, and 43% in the population sampled three times. It was estimated that TC bacteria would be detected in 90% of all wells if each well was analyzed 10 times. For FC/EC bacteria, it was estimated that 21 and 68 samples, respectively, would be required to reach the 50% and 90% population detection rates. In the Coastal Plain (CP), many more samples would be required to achieve the same estimated population detection rates. The population detection rate estimates were also dependent on the type of method used, the pH of the well water, and the geologic formation in which wells were located. A single sample was not sufficient to detect coliform bacteria when present in well water.     

Model‐based multi‐metric control of uniaxial shake tables

Shake tables provide a direct means by which to evaluate structural performance under earthquake excitation. Because the entire structure is mounted on the base plate and subjected to the ground motion in real time, dynamic effects and rate‐dependent behavior can be accurately represented. Shake table control is not straightforward as the desired signal is an acceleration record, while most actuators operate in displacement feedback for stability. At the same time, the payload is typically large relative to the capacity of the actuator, leading to pronounced control‐structure interaction. Through this interaction, the dynamics of the specimen influence the dynamics of the shake table, which can be problematic when specimens change behavior because of damage or other nonlinearities. Moreover, shake tables are themselves inherently nonlinear, making it difficult to accurately recreate a desired acceleration record over a broad range of amplitudes and frequencies. A model‐based multi‐metric shake table control strategy is proposed to improve tracking of the desired acceleration of a uniaxial shake table, remaining robust to nonlinearities including changes in specimen condition. The proposed strategy is verified for the shake table testing of both linear and nonlinear structures. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.