Flood‐loss modelling for assessing impacts of flood‐frequency adjustment,Middle Mississippi River,USA

This study modelled flood losses (economic damages) along the Middle Mississippi River (MMR) (1) using current US government estimates of flow frequencies and (2) using frequencies based on the original, unaltered discharge measurements. The official flood frequencies were quantified in the Upper Mississippi River System Flow Frequency Study (UMRSFFS), but as a last step in that study, early discharges along the MMR were reduced by up to 54% to reflect a purported bias in early measurements. Subsequently, early discharge measurements were rigorously tested, and no such bias was found. Here, flood damages were quantified using a combination of one‐dimensional hydraulic modelling and flood‐loss modelling. For all recurrence intervals, damages were much less using the UMRSFFS flow frequencies compared with the frequencies based on the original discharge measurements, with differences ranging up to 79% (100‐year event) and $2.9bn (200‐year event). Annualized losses in the study area based on the UMRSFFS frequencies were just $41.6m versus $125.6m using the raw frequencies (an underestimation of 67%). These totals do not include flood losses elsewhere along the MMR, including in metropolitan St Louis. In summary, a seemingly small methodological adjustment – in this case, a single hidden adjustment, not documented anywhere within the UMRSFFS – can have dramatic societal impacts in terms of underestimation of flood probabilities and flood risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The last Welsh Ice Cap: Part 2 – Dynamics of a topographically controlled icecap

During the Last Glacial Maximum, the British–Irish Ice Sheet was dominated by a number of accumulation centres, including a terrestrially based, semi‐independent icecap centred on Wales. The dynamics of this Welsh Ice Cap (WIC) over the last glacial period are still relatively poorly understood, with few studies taking into consideration the dynamic evolution of the icecap as a whole. Here we contrast results from two modelled reconstructions of the WIC in conjunction with the wider glacial geomorphological record to elucidate understanding of its form, extent and dynamics. Model output was analysed to yield zones of high basal motion and the spatial distribution of potential glacial erosion. We conclude that coherent flowsets of streamlined bedforms are linked to fast‐flowing outlets dominated by basal sliding. Large‐scale changes in dynamics are discussed, with a number of possible major advances proposed over the glacial cycle. Maximum ice thicknesses of ～1200 m in Mid Wales indicate that all mountain summits were probably ice‐covered during the Last Glacial Maximum, even if it was with a thin protective mantle of cold‐based ice, leading to landscape preservation of these upland zones. The distribution, dynamism and landscape modification related to the WIC are further discussed at the regional scale. Model predictions of glacier distribution through the Younger Dryas stadial accord well with geologically reconstructed limits at this time.     

Dynamic cycles,ice streams and their impact on the extent,chronology and deglaciation of the British–Irish ice sheet

We present results from a suite of forward transient numerical modelling experiments of the British and Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS), consisting of Scottish, Welsh and Irish accumulation centres, spanning the last Glacial period from 38 to 10 ka BP. The 3D thermomechanical model employed uses higher-order physics to solve longitudinal (membrane) stresses and to reproduce grounding-line dynamics. Surface mass balance is derived using a distributed degree-day calculation based on a reference climatology from mean (1961–1990) precipitation and temperature patterns. The model is perturbed from this reference state by a scaled NGRIP oxygen isotope curve and the SPECMAP sea-level reconstruction. Isostatic response to ice loading is computed using an elastic lithosphere/relaxed asthenosphere scheme. A suite of 350 simulations were designed to explore the parameter space of model uncertainties and sensitivities, to yield a subset of experiments that showed close correspondence to offshore and onshore ice-directional indicators, broad BIIS chronology, and the relative sea-level record. Three of these simulations are described in further detail and indicate that the separate ice centres of the modelled BIIS complex are dynamically interdependent during the build up to maximum conditions, but remain largely independent throughout much of the simulation. The modelled BIIS is extremely dynamic, drained mainly by a number of transient but recurrent ice streams which dynamically switch and fluctuate in extent and intensity on a centennial time-scale. A series of binge/purge, advance/retreat, cycles are identified which correspond to alternating periods of relatively cold-based ice, (associated with a high aspect ratio and net growth), and wet-based ice with a lower aspect ratio, characterised by streaming. The timing and dynamics of these events are determined through a combination of basal thermomechanical switching spatially propagated and amplified through longitudinal coupling, but are modulated and phase-lagged to the oscillations within the NGRIP record of climate forcing. Phases of predominant streaming activity coincide with periods of maximum ice extent and are triggered by abrupt transitions from a cold to relatively warm climate, resulting in major iceberg/melt discharge events into the North Sea and Atlantic Ocean. The broad chronology of the modelled BIIS indicates a maximum extent at ～20 ka, with fast-flowing ice across its western and northern sectors that extended to the continental shelf edge. Fast-flowing streams also dominate the Irish Sea and North Sea Basin sectors and impinge onto SW England and East Anglia. From ～19 ka BP deglaciation is achieved in less than 2000 years, discharging the freshwater equivalent of ～2 m global sea-level rise. A much reduced ice sheet centred on Scotland undergoes subsequent retrenchment and a series of advance/retreat cycles into the North Sea Basin from 17 ka onwards, culminating in a sustained Younger Dryas event from 13 to 11.5 ka BP. Modelled ice cover is persistent across the Western and Central Highlands until the last remnant glaciers disappear around 10.5 ka BP.     

Holocene dune formation at Ash Meadows National Wildlife Area,Nevada, USA

Small isolated dune fields in the northern Mojave Desert are important centers of biodiversity and archaeological occupation sites. Currently dunes at Ash Meadows, Nevada, are stabilized by vegetation and are experiencing erosion of their upwind margins, indicating a negative sediment budget. New OSL ages from dunes at Ash Meadows indicate continuous eolian accumulation from 1.5 to 0.8 ka, with further accumulation around 0.2 ka. Prior studies (e.g., Mehringer and Warren, 1976) indicate periods of dune accumulation prior to 3.3 ka; 1.9–1 ka; and after 0.9 ka. These periods of eolian accumulation are largely synchronous with those identified elsewhere in the Mojave Desert. The composition of the Ash Meadows dunes indicates their derivation from regional fluvial sources, most likely during periods when axial washes were active as a result of enhanced winter precipitation.     

Linear complementarity formulation for 3D frictional sliding problems

Frictional sliding on quasi-statically deforming faults and fractures can be modeled efficiently using a linear complementarity formulation. We review the formulation in two dimensions and expand the formulation to three-dimensional problems including problems of orthotropic friction. This formulation accurately reproduces analytical solutions to static Coulomb friction sliding problems. The formulation accounts for opening displacements that can occur near regions of non-planarity even under large confining pressures. Such problems are difficult to solve owing to the coupling of relative displacements and tractions; thus, many geomechanical problems tend to neglect these effects. Simple test cases highlight the importance of including friction and allowing for opening when solving quasi-static fault mechanics models. These results also underscore the importance of considering the effects of non-planarity in modeling processes associated with crustal faulting.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2011

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2011. During this period, 522 earthquakes and 92 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 10 events with M _L????2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2011 was far below the average over the previous 36?years. Most noteworthy were the earthquake sequence of Sierre (VS) in January, with two events of M _L 3.3 and 3.2, the M _L 3.3 earthquake at a depth of 31?km below Bregenz, and the M _L 3.1 event near Delémont. The two strongest events near Sierre produced shaking of intensity IV.     

Stardust-NExT,Deep Impact,and the accelerating spin of 9P/Tempel 1

The evolution of the spin rate of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 through two perihelion passages (in 2000 and 2005) is determined from 1922 Earth-based observations taken over a period of 13 year as part of a World-Wide observing campaign and from 2888 observations taken over a period of 50 days from the Deep Impact spacecraft. We determine the following sidereal spin rates (periods): 209.023 ± 0.025°/dy (41.335 ± 0.005 h) prior to the 2000 perihelion passage, 210.448 ± 0.016°/dy (41.055 ± 0.003 h) for the interval between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages, 211.856 ± 0.030°/dy (40.783 ± 0.006 h) from Deep Impact photometry just prior to the 2005 perihelion passage, and 211.625 ± 0.012°/dy (40.827 ± 0.002 h) in the interval 2006–2010 following the 2005 perihelion passage. The period decreased by 16.8 ± 0.3 min during the 2000 passage and by 13.7 ± 0.2 min during the 2005 passage suggesting a secular decrease in the net torque. The change in spin rate is asymmetric with respect to perihelion with the maximum net torque being applied on approach to perihelion. The Deep Impact data alone show that the spin rate was increasing at a rate of 0.024 ± 0.003°/dy/dy at JD2453530.60510 (i.e., 25.134 dy before impact), which provides independent confirmation of the change seen in the Earth-based observations.The rotational phase of the nucleus at times before and after each perihelion and at the Deep Impact encounter is estimated based on the Thomas et al. (Thomas et al. [2007]. Icarus 187, 4–15) pole and longitude system. The possibility of a 180° error in the rotational phase is assessed and found to be significant. Analytical and physical modeling of the behavior of the spin rate through of each perihelion is presented and used as a basis to predict the rotational state of the nucleus at the time of the nominal (i.e., prior to February 2010) Stardust-NExT encounter on 2011 February 14 at 20:42.We find that a net torque in the range of 0.3–2.5 × 10⁷ kg m² s^?2 acts on the nucleus during perihelion passage. The spin rate initially slows down on approach to perihelion and then passes through a minimum. It then accelerates rapidly as it passes through perihelion eventually reaching a maximum post-perihelion. It then decreases to a stable value as the nucleus moves away from the Sun. We find that the pole direction is unlikely to precess by more than ～1° per perihelion passage. The trend of the period with time and the fact that the modeled peak torque occurs before perihelion are in agreement with published accounts of trends in water production rate and suggests that widespread H₂O out-gassing from the surface is largely responsible for the observed spin-up.     

Geochronology and geochemistry of the Late Triassic Longtan pluton in South China: termination of the crustal melting and Indosinian orogenesis

The Indosinian orogeny is recorded by Triassic angular unconformities in Vietnam and South China and by widely occurring granitoids in the Yunkai-Nanling and the Xuefengshan belts of South China. The Longtan pluton in the northwestern part of the Xuefengshan belt is a typical high-K, calc-alkaline, I-type granitoid, which can shed light on the relationship between the Indosinian tectonic and magmatic activity in the region. Three precise zircon U–Pb ages yielded a mean of 218 ± 0.8 Ma, which is taken as the age of crystallization. The pluton consists of both granodiorite (64.59–68.01 % SiO₂ and 3.25–4.22 % K₂O) and granite (70.49–71.80 % SiO₂ and 4.07–4.70 % K₂O). The granodiorites are characterized by relatively high Mg# (54–57), low contents of Na₂O (3.2–4.3 wt%), low abundances of incompatible elements (LILE, Nb and P), high initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.7175–0.7184) and negative ε_Nd(t) (?9.98 to ?9.72). REE patterns show moderate fractionation ((La/Yb)_cn = 8.07–18.80) with negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.62–0.86). Compared with the granodiorite, the granite has a wider range of Mg# (49–59), lower contents of Na₂O (2.8–4.2 wt%), higher initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.7232–0.7243) and more negative ε_Nd(t) (?12.07 to ?11.24) values. REE patterns are relatively flat ((La/Yb)_cn = 14.73–29.37) with smaller negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.48–0.63). The granodiorite has lower K₂O/Na₂O and Al₂O₃/(MgO + FeO_Tot) values than the granite. Based on major and trace element geochemistry and Sr–Nd isotopes, we interpret the Longtan granodioritic magma to have been derived by partial melting of interlayered Proterozoic metabasaltic to metatonalitic source rocks, whereas the granite was probably derived from a mixture of Proterozoic metagraywackes and metaigneous rocks. Field, petrographic and geochemical evidence indicate that partial melting and fractional crystallization were the dominant mechanism in the evolution of the pluton. The Longtan granodiorites and granites are petrologically and geochemically similar to typical Indosinian varieties and are considered to have been produced in a similar manner. The Indosinian granitoids in the region show a magmatic peak age of ~238 Ma from the Yunkai-Nanling belt in the southeast and a magmatic peak age of ~218 Ma of the Xuefengshan belt to the northwest. These early and late magmatic episodes of the Indosinian granitoids also display slight variations of regular compositions, ε_Nd(t) values and T _DM ages. Thus, we propose a syncollisional extension model that Indosinian granitoids were generated by decompressional partial melting of crustal materials triggered by two extensions during collision of the Indochina and South China blocks. The Longtan pluton in the northwesternmost part of the orogenic belt marks the termination of the Indosinian magmatism and orogenesis.     

Clay mineralogy, organic carbon burial, and redox evolution in Proterozoic oceans

Clay minerals formed through chemical weathering have long been implicated in the burial of organic matter (OM), but because diagenesis and metamorphism commonly obscure the signature of weathering-derived clays in Precambrian rocks, clay mineralogy and its role in OM burial through much of geologic time remains incompletely understood. Here we have analyzed the mineralogy, geochemistry and total organic carbon (TOC) of organic rich shales deposited in late Archean to early Cambrian sedimentary basins. Across all samples we have quantified the contribution of 1M and 1M_d illite polytypes, clay minerals formed by diagenetic transformation of smectite and/or kaolinite-rich weathering products. This mineralogical signal, together with corrected paleo-weathering indices, indicates that late Archean and Mesoproterozoic samples were moderately to intensely weathered. However, in late Neoproterozoic basins, 2M₁ illite/mica dominates clay mineralogy and paleo-weathering indices sharply decrease, consistent with an influx of chemically immature and relatively unweathered sediment. A late Neoproterozoic switch to micaceous clays is inconsistent with hypotheses for oxygen history that require an increased flux of weathering-derived clays (i.e., smectite or kaolinite) across the Precambrian-Cambrian boundary. Compared to previous studies, our XRD data display the same variation in Schultz Ratio across the late Neoproterozoic, but we show the cause to be micaceous clay and not pedogenic clay; paleo-weathering signals cannot be recovered from bulk mineralogy without this distinction. We find little evidence to support a link between these mineralogical variations and organic carbon in our samples and conclude that modal clay mineralogy cannot by itself explain an Ediacaran increase in atmospheric oxygen driven by enhanced OM burial.     

Simulating the value of El Niño forecasts for the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal relies on rain-fed streamflow into Gatun Lake, the canal’s primary storage facility, for operations—principally ship passage and hydropower generation. Precipitation in much of Panama has a strong negative relationship with eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and this relationship is reflected in Gatun Lake inflows. For example, the correlation coefficient between wet season (July–December) inflow and NINO3 SST is −0.53 over the period 1914–1997. Operational capabilities to predict tropical Pacific SSTs have been demonstrated by several forecast systems during the past decade, and (as we show) such SST forecasts can be used to reduce the uncertainty of estimates of future inflows (compared with climatological expectations). Because substantial reductions in lake inflow negatively impact canal operations, we wondered whether these forecasts of future inflows, coupled with a method for translating that information into effective operational policy, might result in more efficient canal management. A combined simulation/optimization/assessment “virtual” canal system was implemented and exercised using operational El Niño forecasts over the period 1981–1998. The results show the following main points:

(i)

At current demand levels, the canal system is relatively robust (insensitive to flow forecasts) unless flows are substantially reduced (i.e., during El Niño episodes) or forecasts are extremely accurate.