Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060 and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation

Spatial climate models were developed for México and its periphery (southern USA, Cuba, Belize and Guatemala) for monthly normals (1961–1990) of average, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation using thin plate smoothing splines of ANUSPLIN software on ca. 3,800 observations. The fit of the model was generally good: the signal was considerably less than one-half of the number of observations, and reasonable standard errors for the surfaces would be less than 1°C for temperature and 10–15% for precipitation. Monthly normals were updated for three time periods according to three General Circulation Models and three emission scenarios. On average, mean annual temperature would increase 1.5°C by year 2030, 2.3°C by year 2060 and 3.7°C by year 2090; annual precipitation would decrease ?6.7% by year 2030, ?9.0% by year 2060 and ?18.2% by year 2090. By converting monthly means into a series of variables relevant to biology (e. g., degree-days > 5°C, aridity index), the models are directly suited for inferring plant–climate relationships and, therefore, in assessing impact of and developing programs for accommodating global warming. Programs are outlined for (a) assisting migration of four commercially important species of pine distributed in altitudinal sequence in Michoacán State (b) developing conservation programs in the floristically diverse Tehuacán Valley, and (c) perpetuating Pinus chiapensis, a threatened endemic. Climate surfaces, point or gridded climatic estimates and maps are available at http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/.     

Sea level and shoreline reconstructions for the Red Sea: isostatic and tectonic considerations and implications for hominin migration out of Africa

The history of sea level within the Red Sea basin impinges on several areas of research. For archaeology and prehistory, past sea levels of the southern sector define possible pathways of human dispersal out of Africa. For tectonics, the interglacial sea levels provide estimates of rates for vertical tectonics. For global sea level studies, the Red Sea sediments contain a significant record of changing water chemistry with implications on the mass exchange between oceans and ice sheets during glacial cycles. And, because of its geometry and location, the Red Sea provides a test laboratory for models of glacio-hydro-isostasy. The Red Sea margins contain incomplete records of sea level for the Late Holocene, for the Last Glacial Maximum, for the Last Interglacial and for earlier interglacials. These are usually interpreted in terms of tectonics and ocean volume changes but it is shown here that the glacio-hydro-isostatic process is an additional important component with characteristic spatial variability. Through an iterative analysis of the Holocene and interglacial evidence a separation of the tectonic, isostatic and eustatic contributions is possible and we present a predictive model for palaeo-shorelines and water depths for a time interval encompassing the period proposed for migrations of modern humans out of Africa. Principal conclusions include the following. (i) Late Holocene sea level signals evolve along the length of the Red Sea, with characteristic mid-Holocene highstands not developing in the central part. (ii) Last Interglacial sea level signals are also location dependent and, in the absence of tectonics, are not predicted to occur more than 1–2 m above present sea level. (iii) For both periods, Red Sea levels at ‘expected far-field’ elevations are not necessarily indicative of tectonic stability and the evidence points to a long-wavelength tectonic uplift component along both the African and Arabian northern and central sides of the Red Sea. (iv) The observational evidence is consistent with tectonic and isostatic processes both operating over the past 300,000 years without requiring changes in the time averaged (over a few thousand years) tectonic rates. (v) Recent bathymetric data for the Bab al Mandab region have been compiled to confirm the location and depth of the sill controlling flow in and out of the Red Sea. Throughout the last 400,000 years the Red Sea has remained open to the Gulf of Aden with cross sectional areas at times of glacial maxima about 2% of that today. (vi) The minimum channel widths connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden at times of lowstand occur south of the Hanish Sill. The channels are less than 4 km wide and remain narrow for as long as local sea levels are below ?50 m. This occurs for a number of sustained periods during the last two glacial cycles and earlier. (vii) Periods suitable for crossing between Africa and Arabia without requiring seaworthy boats or seafaring skills occurred periodically throughout the Pleistocene, particularly at times of favourable environmental climatic conditions that occurred during times of sea level lowstand.     

The Russian military system continues to dominate patterns of international trade and finance

There is a mistaken perception of a growing trade with Russia and an increase in the amount of investment available for Western businessmen in the Federation. This article argues that in fact, there is no room for real investment in the Russian Federation, as defined in Western terms and that the nature of Russian industrial organisation is such that the military dictates the nature of all meaningful industrial production, as well as having the pick of the raw materials and the workforce. There is a growing disillusion with Western methods of management and also this has spread to treaty commitments (such as the Conventional Forces Europe (CFE)) and any attempt to exercise military restraint, because of the mockery of the Western press when such measures have been taken, as in Chechnia. Overall, the need the West has to make itself believe that the Russian Federation is rapidly becoming a new trading partner in a safer international system is fundamentally mistaken. Russia and America have the ability, should they wish or have to, to marginalise a newly united Europe. Furthermore, Russia has the ability to dominate such a European federation and to claim the status of a Regional Superpower. Without America there would be no security organisation that could resist such a claim. Russia is not as far along the road to democracy as hard-pressed Western governments need to claim, so that they may cut defence expenditure and it is dangerous to pretend that the Russian Federation is capable of exporting much more than aggression. The West may well be spending money which it claims is part of planned investment in Russia, to simply buy off the aggressor state Russia has rapidly become, for another few months.     

The Braer tanker incident: Some lessons from the Shetland Islands

On 5 January 1993 the tanker Braer grounded on the southern shore of the Shetland Islands. The vessel was carrying a cargo of about 84 500 t of light crude oil. The incident occurred during severe storms in a remote area of great ecological importance. Because of the bad weather it was not possible to salvage the vessel or any part of her bunkers and cargo. The circumstances which led to this accident are briefly reviewed and lessons that might be learned from this incident are suggested. It is argued that the only viable means of minimizing tanker incidents and providing compensation for those who suffer loss when they do occur is through an internationally adopted framework of rules that have regard to operational and commercial considerations as well as to environmental issues, and which can be enforced to a consistent standard throughout the world. The following lessons can be learnt from this incident: 1. the need for improved internationally agreed rules requiring early reporting of difficulties being experienced by laden tankers; 2. the need to arrest the decrease in the number of professional salvage companies; 3. the value of well planned and well rehearsed emergency response plans; 4. the need for better anchoring systems; and 5. the need for whatever action is taken to tbe appropriate to the circumstances of each particular incident.     

Ice-marginal sedimentary, glacitectonic, and morphologic features of Pleistocene drift: An example from Newfoundland

A Pleistocene drift sequence in hummocky terrain along part of the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland is interpreted to comprise complexly interrelated lodgement till, melt-out till, flow till, supraglacial and proglacial outwash, and supraglacial rhythmites. The gray and tan melt-out tills are stacked in imbricate fashion, giving rise to exceptionally thick stratigraphic sections. Contacts between melt-out tills are interpreted as remnants of shear planes because they are sharp, they dip in the up-ice direction, and they converge toward valley margins. Overlying flow tills interdigitate with supraglacial outwash. The drift sequence was deposited during a single episode of glaciation, rather than by repeated glacier advance, as previously proposed. It is the product of thrusting of englacial debris along ice-marginal shear planes, subsequent melting-out of englacial debris, and formation of supraglacial flow till and outwash. Preservation of this sequence probably is due to high content of englacial debris within the Wisconsinan ice. The sedimentary, glacitectonic, and morphologic features of this sequence are similar to those found at the margins of certain Arctic glaciers of subpolar thermal regime which have recently been the subject of Pleistocene glacial sedimentation models for west-central Canada and Great Britain. Recognition of these distinct elements indicates wisconsinan glacier lobes were of the cold Arctic type in southeastern Newfoundland. Alternative explanations for this sequence, such as deposition by glaciers of temperate thermal regime or by surging glaciers, are discounted. Because the features described here are complex and difficult to recognize, they may be more widespread in Pleistocene drift than has previously been interpreted.     

Genesis of Palaeoproterozoic iron skarns in the Misi region, northern Finland

Sodic alteration is widespread in Palaeoproterozoic greenstone and schist belts of the northern Fennoscandian shield. In the Misi region that forms the easternmost part of the Peräpohja schist belt, several small magnetite deposits show intimate spatial relationships with intensely albitised gabbros, raising the possibility that regional sodic alteration released iron, which was subsequently accumulated into deposits. Two of these magnetite deposits, Raajärvi and Puro display a typical paragenesis as follows (from oldest to youngest): (1) diopside, (2) actinolite/tremolite-magnetite ± chlorite, biotite, and (3) serpentine ± hematite, chlorite. Mass balance calculations suggest that significant amounts of Fe, Ca, Mg, K, Cu, V, and Ba were lost, and Na and Si gained during the albitisation of the gabbro, at near-constant Al, Ga, Ti, and Zr. Significant amounts of Si, Ca, Fe, and Na were enriched in the formation of skarn related to magnetite deposits. Fe and V leached from country rocks deposited during the skarn-alteration and formed the vanadium rich iron deposits while Cu passed through the system without significant precipitation due to low sulphur fugasity. Variations in Na, Ca, Mg, K, and Ba contents reflect the composition of the infiltrating fluid during alteration. Conventional heating-freezing measurements and proton-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) analyses of the fluid inclusions related to actinolite/tremolite-magnetite stage alteration indicate that the fluids that caused the alteration and the Fe-mineralisation were complex, oxidised, highly saline H₂O ± CO₂ fluids that contained high amounts of Na, Ca, K, Fe, and Ba as well as elevated concentrations of Cu, Zn, and Pb. The oxygen isotope thermometry suggest that temperature during the Fe-mineralisation stage was between 390 and 490°C. Calculated δ¹⁸O_fluid values of 6.1–9.8‰ SMOW and δ¹³C values of calcites in the ores and skarns were between ?7.7 and 10.9‰ PDB and most likely reflect admixture of ¹³C depleted, possibly magmatic fluids with the marble wall rocks that show δ¹³C_calcite values of 13‰ PDB. The SIMS U–Pb data on the zircons in the albitised gabbro next to the Raajärvi and Puro deposits suggest that intrusion of the gabbro took place at 2123±7 Ma and was accompanied by the formation of diopside skarn. The TIMS data on the metasomatic titanites related to sodic alteration yielded ages of 2062±3 and 2017±3 Ma. Iron was probably stripped from the mafic country rocks by sodic alteration between 2123 and 2017 Ma, driven by repeated brine influxes. Subsequently, the metal-rich brine was focused by a fault system and the iron was precipitated from this fluid by a combination of wall rock reaction, fluid mixing, and a drop in the temperature.     

The influence of pH on the kinetics, reversibility and mechanisms of Pb(II) sorption at the calcite-water interface

Pb(II) sorption experiments with calcite powders were conducted in suspensions equilibrated at atmospheric PCO_2(g) and ambient temperature at pH 7.3, 8.2 and 9.4. Pb fractional sorption was low at pH 7.3 and 9.4 relative to pH 8.2, and correlated well with PbCO₃⁰_(aq) speciation. Desorption experiments conducted for initial sorption times ranging from 0.5 h to 12 d reveal an almost completely reversible process at pH 8.2, attributed to the dominance of an adsorption mechanism, with slight and pronounced irreversibility at pH 7.3 and 9.4 respectively. Similarities in X-ray absorption near edge spectra (XANES) for 24 h and 12 d pH 7.3 and 9.4 sorption samples indicate no effect of initial sorption time. Results from linear combination (LC) fits of XANES spectra for samples sorbed at pH 9.4 confirm ∼75% adsorbed and ∼25% coprecipitated components. The coprecipitated fraction was attributed to the non-exchangeable metal observed in desorption experiments. At pH 7.3, ∼95% adsorbed and ∼5% coprecipitated components were obtained. A comparison of results from desorption experiments and LC-XANES alludes to an irreversibly bound adsorbed component for the pH 9.4 12 d sorption sample. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS) analysis of pH 7.3 and 9.4 12 d sorption samples confirms the presence of both adsorbed and coprecipitated metal. At pH 7.3 a first-shell Pb-O bond length of 2.38 Å is intermediate between that of adsorbed (2.34 Å) and coprecipitated (2.51 Å) Pb. At pH 9.4, two first-shell Pb-O distances at 2.35 Å and 2.51 Å were obtained, indicative of the occurrence of both adsorption and coprecipitation and a larger coprecipitated fraction relative to that at pH 7.3, consistent with LC-XANES results. We propose that the disparity in the fraction of coprecipitated metal with pH may be linked to the ability of sorbed Pb to inhibit near-surface dynamic exchange of Ca and CO₃ species, which dictates step advance and retreat. Less effective inhibition of step motion at pH 9.4, due to lower fractional sorption, combined with highest rates of dynamic exchange results in a significant fraction of coprecipitated Pb at this pH. At low pH, though fractional sorption is also low, lower rates of exchange prohibit significant coprecipitation. At pH 8.2, effective inhibition of surface processes due to higher fractional sorption and lower rates of exchange compared to pH 7.3 and 9.4 preclude detectable coprecipitation. Other factors such as changes in surface speciation and solubility of the Pb-Ca solid solution with pH may also come into play. Overall, this study presents evidence for the influence of pH on Pb sorption mechanisms, and addresses the efficiency of Pb immobilization in calcitic systems.     

Assessing agreement of measurements and predictions in geomorphology

Commonly in geomorphology measurements by different methods are compared to see how far they agree (i.e. are equal), as are predictions from models and corresponding observations. Such assessment usually employs scatter plots, correlation and possibly regression. More appropriate and more effective methods include plotting differences versus means and summary by concordance correlation and other measures of agreement. These methods, some new to geomorphology, are explained and discussed with a variety of examples using fluvial, hillslope, glacial and coastal data.     

Putting the census on the web: lessons from two case studies

Summary This paper addresses the digital dissemination of geographically referenced census information in the UK. A number of important weaknesses in the 1991 model of data access are identified, and the possibility of future access to census information via the World Wide Web is then addressed in detail. Two case studies demonstrate the potential to overcome some fundamental weaknesses in earlier access models, including the provision of integrated data and metadata, graphical interfaces to geographical datasets, and an integrated interface and analysis environment.