Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land tenure and REDD+: The good,the bad and the ugly

A number of international donors, national governments and project proponents have begun to lay the groundwork for REDD+, but tenure insecurity – including the potential risks of land grabbing by outsiders and loss of local user rights to forests and forest land – is one of the main reasons that many indigenous and other local peoples have publicly opposed it. Under what conditions is REDD+ a threat to local rights, and under what conditions does it present an opportunity? This article explores these issues based on available data from a global comparative study on REDD+, led by the Center for International Forestry Research, which is studying national policies and processes in 12 countries and 23 REDD+ projects in 6 countries. The article analyses how tenure concerns are being addressed at both national and project level in emerging REDD+ programs. The findings suggest that in most cases REDD+ has clearly provided some new opportunities for securing local tenure rights, but that piecemeal interventions by project proponents at the local level are insufficient in the absence of broader, national programs for land tenure reform. The potential for substantial changes in the status quo appear unlikely, though Brazil – the only one with such a national land tenure reform program – offers useful insights. Land tenure reform – the recognition of customary rights in particular – and a serious commitment to REDD+ both challenge the deep-rooted economic and political interests of ‘business as usual’.     

Search for H2 Emission from Disks around T Tauri and Herbig AE Stars

Preliminary results are presented of observations of the pure rotational lines of H2 toward T Tauri and Herbig Ae stars using the Short Wavelength Spectrometer (SWS) on the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO). The sources are selected to be isolated low- and intermediate-mass young stellar objects, for which the presence of a circumstellar disk has been established by millimeter interferometry. The lowest H2 S(0) and S(1) lines are detected in 3 out of 5 objects. The measured intensities indicate ∼ 0.01 M⊙ of warm (T ≈ 150 K) gas in the ISO beam. It is argued that for at least one case (HD 163296), the emission is probably dominated by the warm gas in the circumstellar disk rather than by shocked- or photon-heated gas in the surrounding envelope. Such observations can provide important constraints on the radial and vertical temperature profiles in circumstellar disks. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Estimating the error in vertically interpolated forecast‐observation differences: U‐ and v‐wind components

Abstract

Data assimilation in numerical weather forecasting corrects current forecast values by subtracting a portion of interpolated forecast‐minus‐observation differences at the points of a three‐dimensional grid. Deviations used in updating a forecast data field are forecast errors obtained or derived from observations available at update time. When observations are missing at mandatory levels, construction of full vertical soundings by interpolation introduces extraneous errors. The present paper is concerned with determination of the error in vertical extrapolations of surface winds, and of aircraft and satellite cloud‐tracked winds. In addition it examines the effect on accuracy of using location‐specific statistics compared to averaged statistics as the basis for the interpolation weighting scheme and compares errors of one‐ and two‐variable interpolations.

Interpolation accuracy tests demonstrate the influence of the interpolation scheme on the quality of interpolated information used in forecast updating. The results show that the level of accuracy exceeds the benchmark provided by monthly mean forecast error values only with bivariate interpolation of wind components from off‐level data sources.     

Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.     

Detection of mines in acoustic images using higher order spectral features

A new pattern-recognition algorithm detects approximately 90% of the mines hidden in the Coastal Systems Station Sonar0, 1, and 3 databases of cluttered acoustic images, with about 10% false alarms. Similar to other approaches, the algorithm presented here includes processing the images with an adaptive Wiener filter (the degree of smoothing depends on the signal strength in a local neighborhood) to remove noise without destroying the structural information in the mine shapes, followed by a two-dimensional FIR filter designed to suppress noise and clutter, while enhancing the target signature. A double peak pattern is produced as the FIR filter passes over mine highlight and shadow regions. Although the location, size, and orientation of this pattern within a region of the image can vary, features derived from higher order spectra (HOS) are invariant to translation, rotation, and scaling, while capturing the spatial correlations of mine-like objects. Classification accuracy is improved by combining features based on geometrical properties of the filter output with features based on HOS. The highest accuracy is obtained by fusing classification based on bispectral features with classification based on trispectral features.     

Direct parameter identification of fractured porous medium

A direct method of parameter identification for a fracture porous medium can be formulated. The coefficient of piezo-conductivity and the virtual fracture transmissivity can be determined using a combination of graphical methods and approximate formulae. Field calculation provides a practical demonstration of the proposed approach.     

Detection of PAHs in seawater using surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS)

The laboratory characterization of a field-operable surface-enhanced Raman scattering sensor (SERS optode) is presented for the detection of aromatic hydrocarbons in seawater. The sensor has been developed for deployment with a robust underwater spectrograph. To meet the demands of the harsh seawater application, sol-gel derived SERS substrates were used. The calibration curves of six PAHs were determined to be of Langmuir adsorption isotherm type with limits of detection ranging from the microg l(-1) to ng l(-1) level. The experimentally determined adsorption constants varied strongly with the molecular weight of the analytes and correlated with their solubility. A mixture of five PAHs dissolved in seawater was investigated to demonstrate the utility of this method for screening. Emphasis was put on the interference from suspended particulate matter (SPM). The Raman measurement with backscattering configuration was shown to be immune against turbidities up to 1000 NTU. The physico-chemical interference arising from adsorption by the sediment was measured on-line by adding sediment to a PAH-spiked solution. According to the calibration curve, the PAH concentration decrease corresponded to more than 98% of the analyte being scavenged by the sediment.     

Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia

Fine-resolution regional climate simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs) are performed over the eastern Australian region. The horizontal resolution (30 km) is fine enough that a good climatological simulation of observed tropical cyclone formation is obtained using the observed tropical cyclone lower wind speed threshold (17 m s^–1). This simulation is performed without the insertion of artificial vortices (bogussing). The simulated occurrence of cyclones, measured in numbers of days of cyclone activity, is slightly greater than observed. While the model-simulated distribution of central pressures resembles that observed, simulated wind speeds are generally rather lower, due to weaker than observed pressure gradients close to the centres of the simulated storms. Simulations of the effect of climate change are performed. Under enhanced greenhouse conditions, simulated numbers of TCs do not change very much compared with those simulated for the current climate, nor do regions of occurrence. There is a 56% increase in the number of simulated storms with maximum winds greater than 30 m s^–1 (alternatively, a 26% increase in the number of storms with central pressures less than 970 hPa). In addition, there is an increase in the number of intense storms simulated south of 30°S. This increase in simulated maximum storm intensity is consistent with previous studies of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclone wind speeds.