Modelling larval dispersal of the king scallop (Pecten maximus) in the English Channel: examples from the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine

The king scallop (Pecten maximus) is one of the most important benthic species of the English Channel as it constitutes the first fishery in terms of landings in this area. To support strategies of spatial fishery management, we develop a high-resolution biophysical model to study scallop dispersal in two bays along the French coasts of the English Channel (i.e. the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine) and to quantify the relative roles of local hydrodynamic processes, temperature-dependent planktonic larval duration (PLD) and active swimming behaviour (SB). The two bays are chosen for three reasons: (1) the distribution of the scallop stocks in these areas is well known from annual scallop stock surveys, (2) these two bays harbour important fisheries and (3) scallops in these two areas present some differences in terms of reproductive cycle and spawning duration. The English Channel currents and temperature are simulated for 10 years (2000–2010) with the MARS-3D code and then used by the Lagrangian module of MARS-3D to model the transport. Results were analysed in terms of larval distribution at settlement and connectivity rates. While larval transport in the two bays depended both on the tidal residual circulation and the wind-induced currents, the relative role of these two hydrodynamic processes varied among bays. In the bay of Saint-Brieuc, the main patterns of larval dispersal were due to tides, the wind being only a source of variability in the extent of larval patch and the local retention rate. Conversely, in the bay of Seine, wind-induced currents altered both the direction and the extent of larval transport. The main effect of a variable PLD in relation to the thermal history of each larva was to reduce the spread of dispersal and consequently increase the local retention by about 10 % on average. Although swimming behaviour could influence larval dispersal during the first days of the PLD when larvae are mainly located in surface waters, it has a minor role on larval distribution at settlement and retention rates. The analysis of the connectivity between subpopulations within each bay allows identifying the main sources of larvae which depend on both the characteristics of local hydrodynamics and the spatial heterogeneity in the reproductive outputs.     

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

Reliability index in geotechnics

In this paper, the reliability index β is examined for its applicability in geotechnics. A statistical finite difference scheme is proposed to evaluate partial derivatives of the limit state function, enabling the computation of the reliability index β. Through illustrative examples, it is demonstrated that the proposed procedure gives results in excellent agreement with those obtained by the Monte Carlo simulation method, and yet it involves considerable savings in computing time. Extension of the reliability index method to cover many classes of problems involving correlated variables is highlighted.     

A Continuous Mapping of Tidal Current Structures in the Kanmon Strait

Tidal current structures at the Hayatomono-Seto of the Kanmon Strait are mapped continuously during March 17 to 20, 2003, including a spring tide, by the eight coastal acoustic tomography (CAT) systems distributed on both the sides of the strait. Detailed structures of strong tidal currents and their associated vortices are well reconstructed by the inverse analysis of travel-time difference data obtained from the reciprocal sound transmission between the paired CAT systems located at both sides of the strait mainly. The results are well compared to the shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data at the correlation rate of 0.84/0.82 and the RMS difference of 0.47/0.48 ms⁻¹ for the east-west/north-south current after the selection of good data. During the observation period, the maximum hourly mean volume transport for the upper 7 m layer across the strait reached 13,314 m³ s⁻¹ for the eastward and 5,547 m³ s⁻¹ for the westward. The daily mean transport is directed to the eastward and estimated 1,470 m³ s⁻¹ and 2,140 m³ s⁻¹ for March 18 and 19, respectively, when a spring tide occurs.     

Tectonic wedging along the rear of the offshore Taiwan accretionary prism

The structural geometry, kinematics and density structure along the rear of the offshore Taiwan accretionary prism were studied using seismic reflection profiling and gravity modeling. Deformation between the offshore prism and forearc basin at the point of incipient collision, and southward into the region of subduction, has been interpreted as a tectonic wedge, similar to those observed along the front of mountain ranges. This tectonic wedge is bounded by an east-dipping roof thrust and a blind, west-dipping floor thrust. An east-dipping sequence of forearc-basin strata in the hanging wall of the roof thrust reaches a thickness in excess of 4 km near the tip of the interpreted tectonic wedge. Section restoration of the roof sequence yields an estimate of 4 km of shortening, which is small compared with that inferred in the collision area to the north, based on the variation in distance between the apex of the prism and the island arc.Previous studies propose that either high-angle normal faulting or backfolding has exhumed the metamorphic rocks along the eastern flank of the Central Range in the collision zone on land. To better constrain the initial crustal configuration, we tested 350 crustal models to fit the free-air gravity anomaly data in the offshore region to study the density structure along the rear of the accretionary prism in the subduction and initial collision zones before the structures become more complex in the collision zone on land. The gravity anomaly, observed in the region of subduction (20.2°N), can be modeled with the arc basement forming a trenchward-dipping backstop that is overlain by materials with densities in the range of sedimentary rocks. Near the point of incipient collision (20.9°N), however, the free-air gravity anomaly over the rear of the prism is approximately 40 mgal higher, compared with the region of subduction, and requires a significant component of high density crustal rocks within the tectonic wedge. These results suggest that the forearc basement may be deformed along the rear of the prism, associated with the onset of collision, but not in the subduction region further to the south.     

Assessing the contribution of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and self-potential (SP) methods for a water well drilling program in fractured/karstified limestones

ERT and SP investigations were conducted in carbonate rocks of the Dinant Synclinorium (Walloon Region of Belgium) to find suitable locations for new water wells in zones with little hydrogeological data. Since boreholes information needed to be representative of the area, large fractured zones were searched for the drillings. Large ERT profiles (320 to 640 m) allowed us to image the resistivity distribution of the first 60 m of the subsurface and to detect and characterize (in terms of direction, width and depth) fractured zones expected to be less resistive. Data errors, depth of investigation (DOI) indexes and sensitivity models were analyzed in order to avoid a misinterpretation of the resulting images. Self-potential measurements were performed along electrical profiles to complement our electrical results. Some negative anomalies possibly related to preferential flow pathways were detected. A drilling campaign was conducted according to geophysical results. ‘Ground truth’ geological data as well as pumping tests information gave us a way to assess the contribution of geophysics to a drilling program. We noticed that all the wells placed in low resistivity zones associated with SP anomalies provide very high yields and inversely, wells drilled in resistive zones or outside SP anomalies are limited in terms of capacity. An apparent coupling coefficient between SP signals and differences in hydraulic heads was also estimated in order to image the water table.     

Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec,Canada)

Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative modelling approaches of hydro-mechanical processes in sealing experiments at the Tournemire URL

In this paper, a comparative modelling exercise from the DECOVALEX-2015 project is presented. The exercise is based on in situ experiments, performed at the Tournemire Underground Research Laboratory (URL), run by the IRSN (Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire), in France. These experiments aim at identifying conditions (e.g. technical specifications, design, construction, and defects) that will affect the long-term performance of swelling clay-based sealing systems, which is of key importance for the safety of underground nuclear waste disposal facilities. A number of materials are being considered as seals; the current work focusses on a 70/30 MX80 bentonite–sand mixture initially compacted at a dry density of 1.94 Mg/m³. The performance of the sealing plug involves at least three different important components, which are the hydro-mechanical behaviour of the bentonite–sand core, the overall permeability of the surrounding argillite, and the influence of the technological gap between the core and the argillite. Two particular tests have been selected for a comparative modelling exercise: the WT-1 test, which was designed to study the rock mass permeability, and the PT-A1 test, which aimed at quantifying the evolution of the hydro-mechanical field within the bentonite–sand core. A number of independent teams have worked towards modelling these experiments, using different codes and input parameters calibrated on additional small-scale laboratory experiments. Their results are compared and discussed.     

Spatio-temporal changes of underground coal fires during 2008–2016 in Khanh Hoa coal field (North-east of Viet Nam) using Landsat time-series data

Underground coal fires are one of the most common and serious geohazards in most coal producing countries in the world. Monitoring their spatio-temporal changes plays an important role in controlling and preventing the effects of coal fires, and their environmental impact. In this study, the spatio-temporal changes of underground coal fires in Khanh Hoa coal field(North-East of Viet Nam) were analyzed using Landsat time-series data during the 2008-2016 period. Based on land surface temperatures retrieved from Landsat thermal data, underground coal fires related to thermal anomalies were identified using the MEDIAN+1.5×IQR(IQR: Interquartile range) threshold technique. The locations of underground coal fires were validated using a coal fire map produced by the field survey data and cross-validated using the daytime ASTER thermal infrared imagery. Based on the fires extracted from seven Landsat thermal imageries, the spatiotemporal changes of underground coal fire areas were analyzed. The results showed that the thermalanomalous zones have been correlated with known coal fires. Cross-validation of coal fires using ASTER TIR data showed a high consistency of 79.3%. The largest coal fire area of 184.6 hectares was detected in 2010, followed by 2014(181.1 hectares) and 2016(178.5 hectares). The smaller coal fire areas were extracted with areas of 133.6 and 152.5 hectares in 2011 and 2009 respectively. Underground coal fires were mainly detected in the northern and southern part, and tend to spread to north-west of the coal field.