Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New urban map of Eurasia using MODIS and multi-source geospatial data

Urban areas are of paramount significance to both the individuals and communities at local and regional scales. However, the rapid growth of urban areas exerts effects on climate, biodiversity, hydrology, and natural ecosystems worldwide. Therefore, regular and up-to-date information related to urban extent is necessary to monitor the impacts of urban areas at local, regional, and potentially global scales. This study presents a new urban map of Eurasia at 500 m resolution using multi-source geospatial data, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data of 2013, population density of 2012, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime lights of 2012, and constructed Impervious Surface Area (ISA) data of 2010. The Eurasian urban map was created using the threshold method for these data, combined with references of fine resolution Landsat and Google Earth imagery. The resultant map was compared with nine global urban maps and was validated using random sampling method. Results of the accuracy assessment showed high overall accuracy of the new urban map of 94%. This urban map is one product of the 20 land cover classes of the next version of Global Land Cover by National Mapping Organizations.     

Small-scale marine fisheries policy in Vietnam

Vietnam's marine fisheries are considered to be small scale and are concentrated in coastal near-shore waters. This has resulted in heavy pressure on near-shore fisheries resources. Near-shore fisheries are considered by fishers and the government to be over-exploited, causing hardship for many coastal communities. This paper reviews and analyzes changes in policy towards small-scale fisheries in Vietnam over the last two decades. The primary issues facing the small-scale fisheries in Vietnam are to restructure the near-shore fisheries and to address over-capacity. Recommended actions include improved fisheries statistics, resources for provincial fisheries staff, and a coordinated and integrated approach involving a mixed strategy of resource management; resource restoration; economic and community development; and new governance arrangements.     

Seasonal variations of atmospheric sulfur dioxide and dimethylsulfide concentrations at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean

Daily measurements of atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations were performed from March 1989 to January 1991 at Amsterdam Island (37°50 S–77°30 E), a remote site located in the southern Indian Ocean. Long-range transport of continental air masses was studied using Radon (²²²Rn) as continental tracer. Average monthly SO₂ concentrations range from less than 0.2 to 3.9 nmol m^-3 (annual average = 0.7 nmol m^-3) and present a seasonal cycle with a minimum in winter and a maximum in summer, similar to that described for atmospheric DMS concentrations measured during the same period. Clear diel correlation between atmospheric DMS and SO₂ concentrations is also observed during summer. A photochemical box model using measured atmospheric DMS concentrations as input data reproduces the seasonal variations in the measured atmospheric SO₂ concentrations within ±30%. Comparing between computed and measured SO₂ concentrations allowed us to estimate a yield of SO₂ from DMS oxidation of about 70%.     

Non‐local damage modelling of concrete: a procedure for the determination of model parameters

This paper presents a procedure for the determination of parameters of non‐local damage models. This is to assure a consistent response of a non‐local damage model, as choice of the internal length and other parameters of the model are varied. Correlations between the internal length and other parameters governing the local constitutive behaviour of the model are addressed and exploited. Focus is put on the relationship between the internal length of the non‐local model and the width of the fracture process zone. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the rigour of the proposed method. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Locally weighted learning based hybrid intelligence models for groundwater potential mapping and modeling: A case study at Gia Lai province,Vietnam

The groundwater potential map is an important tool for a sustainable water management and land use planning,particularly for agricultural countries like Vietnam. In this article, we proposed new machine learning ensemble techniques namely Ada Boost ensemble(ABLWL), Bagging ensemble(BLWL), Multi Boost ensemble(MBLWL),Rotation Forest ensemble(RFLWL) with Locally Weighted Learning(LWL) algorithm as a base classifier to build the groundwater potential map of Gia Lai province in Vietnam. For this study, eleven conditioning factors(aspect, altitude, curvature, slope, Stream Transport Index(STI), Topographic Wetness Index(TWI), soil, geology,river density, rainfall, land-use) and 134 wells yield data was used to create training(70%) and testing(30%)datasets for the development and validation of the models. Several statistical indices were used namely Positive Predictive Value(PPV), Negative Predictive Value(NPV), Sensitivity(SST), Specificity(SPF), Accuracy(ACC),Kappa, and Receiver Operating Characteristics(ROC) curve to validate and compare performance of models. Results show that performance of all the models is good to very good(AUC: 0.75 to 0.829) but the ABLWL model with AUC = 0.89 is the best. All the models applied in this study can support decision-makers to streamline the management of the groundwater and to develop economy not only of specific territories but also in other regions across the world with minor changes of the input parameters.     

The first peak ground motion attenuation relationships for North of Vietnam

The first attenuation relationships of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) for northern Vietnam are obtained in this study. Ground motion data are collected by a portable broadband seismic network in northern Vietnam as a part of cooperation between the Institute of Geophysics, Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam and Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan. The database comprises a total of 330 amplitude records by 14 broadband stations from 53 shallow earthquakes, which were occurred in and around northern Vietnam in the period between 01/2006 and 12/2009. These earthquakes are of local magnitudes between 1.6 and 4.6, focal depths less than 30 km, and epicentral distances less than 500 km. The new attenuation relationships for PGA and PGV are:

log₁₀(PGA)=-0.987+0.7521M_L-log₁₀(R)-0.00475R,     

Geophysical techniques to aquifer locating and monitoring for industrial zones in North Hanoi, Vietnam

Geophysical methods were applied for hydrogeological targets in many countries including Vietnam. This paper presents results of using complex geophysical techniques as well as 2D electrical resistivity imaging (ERI), vertical electrical sounding (VES), very low frequency (VLF), and seismic refraction for geological structure investigation for locating the aquifers and assessing the hydrogeological conditions for groundwater potential in industrial zones of North Hanoi, Vietnam. The locations of two aquifers are determined by their depth and thickness on the basis of resistivity and seismic velocity values which were proved by stratifications of three boreholes to 40–60 m of depth on the study area. There are connections from surface water to shallow aquifer by hydraulic windows, as follows from VLF data. The deeper aquifer can be considered as a potential groundwater supply, but the water level is descending in time, as shown by hydrological monitoring. However, with careful use and by reducing sources of pollution, groundwater can continue to be an important natural resource for future.     

EM and GPR investigations of contaminant spread around the Hoc Mon waste site,Vietnam

This paper is presenting the results from near-surface geophysical surveys near the waste site of Hoc Mon in southern Vietnam where leachate contamination has been recognized at the surface. Using EM and GPR surveys, we were able to determine the lateral extent of a contaminated area of high electrical conductivity and have identified channels that concentrate the contaminant flow. The simple relationship between the electrical resistivity and the leachate concentration is suggested and estimated the in situ leachate concentration from the inversion of the EM data; values are as high as 40%. Thanks to a permeability barrier leachate flow is confined to the shallow subsurface, making it easier to apply possible site remediation projects.     

Seasonal variation of atmospheric dimethylsulfide at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean

Daily measurements of atmospheric concentrations of dimethylsulfide (DMS) were carried out for two years in a marine site at remote area: the Amsterdam Island (37°50S–77°31E) located in the southern Indian Ocean. DMS concentrations were also measured in seawater. A seasonal variation is observed for both DMS in the atmosphere and in the sea-surface. The monthly averages of DMS concentrations in the surface coastal seawater and in the atmosphere ranged, respectively, from 0.3 to 2.0 nmol l^-1 and from 1.4 to 11.3 nmol m^-3 (34 to 274 pptv), with the highest values in summer. The monthly variation of sea-to-air flux of DMS from the southern Indian Ocean ranges from 0.7 to 4.4 mol m^-2 d^-1. A factor of 2.3 is observed between summer and winter with mean DMS fluxes of 3.0 and 1.3 mol m^-2 d^-1, respectively.