Nonparametric Estimation of Undrained Shear Strength for Normally Consolidated Clays

For decades, various well-known empirical correlations have been established and commonly used to estimate the undrained shear strength of normally consolidated clays in geotechnical practice. However, there are still many contradictory cases regarding the validity of these correlations, so their applicability and reliability are questionable. In this study, an extensive geotechnical database for normally consolidated clays has been compiled. Next, a Bayesian nonparametric method is exploited to identify the most critical soil index properties in inferring the undrained shear strength and a new predictive model is proposed. Finally, the performance of the proposed predictive model is assessed and compared with two well-known correlations using an independent testing database. It confirms that the proposed model not only possesses high predictability, but also provides superior performance over other existing empirical correlations.     

New Systematic Method to Determine Elastic Constants and Crack Propagation Thresholds of Brittle Rocks Under Triaxial Compression

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Elastic constants and crack propagation stress thresholds of brittle rocks are important mechanical properties for engineering applications. However, these...     

Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications

Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation.     

The environmental impacts of pollutants generated by routine shipping operations on ports

The environmental impacts generated by shipping operations have increasingly become an important research topic, where its pollutants often pose negative externalities to natural habitats and economic losses to coastal areas. While the environmental impact costs generated by shipping disasters, notably large scale accidental oil spills, have been widely studied, hitherto, works dedicated to the assessment of environmental impact costs of pollutants generated by routine shipping operations remain scarce due to their relatively implicit nature and thus delays of consequential risks. Hence, by proposing an economic model and calibrating it to Port of Rotterdam, this paper assesses the environmental impact costs generated by routine shipping operations on ports. By shedding light on this important, but under-researched, issue critical to the well-being of the global shipping industry, this paper provides a decent framework for further research in sustainable shipping and port management for future generations.     

Rip currents as a geological tool

This paper considers the nature and sedimentary significance of rip currents. Rip currents are the main factor responsible for the transport of coarse sediments from the littoral zone to greater depths. Such sediments, deposited outside the zone of wave deformation, may be identified as storm rip current increments within sediments deposited during fair weather. Composite beds deposited during a given wave cycle by storm rip currents are closely similar to ‘turbidites’ and many so called ‘fluxo-turbidites’ described from flysch deposits. Using data gathered in studies conducted on the modern Baltic coast, supplemented by experimental work and theoretical considerations, a sedimentary model is proposed. The model may be used to interpret possible rip current deposits among shallow water ‘turbidites’, and both modern storm sediments and ancient ‘tempestites’.     

A new theoretical method for analyzing confined dry granular flows

A granular body may deform in a continuous fashion such that the solid particles remain in close contact. Previous research works have always used the frictional Coulomb-like continuum treatment for analyzing granular bodies. However, this approach is only applicable for quasi-static conditions and cannot capture the complicated granular contact behavior of solid particles inside a failing granular body. This paper applies a revised Savage–Hutter equation to model granular flows moving down a confined, sloping channel. The Coulomb contact friction law is modified to consider the effect of the shear rate inside a granular body. This new method also considers the confinement effect of a sloping channel on granular flow mobility. The derived depth-averaged equations of motion bear a resemblance to nonlinear shallow-water wave equations. Results computed using the derived equations are compared with measurements from flume model tests, and consistency is found between the two.     

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.     

Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A...     

Development of a diatom-based specific conductivity model for the glacio-isostatic lakes of Truelove Lowland: implications for paleoconductivity and paleoenvironmental reconstructions in Devon Island lakes, N.W.T., Canada

Diatoms are identified and enumerated from the surface sediments of 100 lakes of Truelove Lowland, Devon Island, N.W.T., Canada. These lakes range from large oligotrophic lakes, to small tundra ponds, to coastal marine lagoons which are diverse in terms of ionic concentration and composition. The relationship between diatoms and 15 limnological variables is examined using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Specific conductivity is identified as the most important variable influencing the distribution of diatoms in the Truelove lakes. A Weighted Averaging (WA) calibration model is developed to predict diatom-inferred specific conductivity. The reliability of the model is tested by evaluating the correlation between observed and diatom-inferred values and determining the error of prediction by bootstrapping. The applicability of the predictive conductivity equation is demonstrated by reconstructing the paleoconductivity history of Fish Lake.