Consumption tradeoff vs. catastrophes avoidance: implications of some recent results in happiness studies on the economics of climate change

Recent discussion of climate change focuses on the trade-off between present and future consumption and hence correctly emphasizes the discount rate. Stern (2007) favours immediate and strong actions of environmental protection, but this has been questioned as the discount rate used is much lower than the market or commonly used rates. Focussed only on consumption trade-off, the use of these higher discount rates completely reverses the need for strong actions. However, an even more important problem has been largely neglected. This is the avoidance of catastrophes that may threaten the extinction of the human species. But ??we lack a usable economic framework for dealing with these kinds of ... extreme disasters?? (Weitzman, J Econ Lit 45(3):703?C724, 2007, p. 723). To analyse this, the comparison of marginal utility with total utility is needed. As happiness studies suggest a low ratio of marginal to total utility and as scientific and technological advances (especially in brain stimulation and genetic engineering) may dramatically increase future welfare, immediate and actions stronger than proposed by Stern may be justified despite high discount rates on future consumption, as discount rates on future utility/welfare should be much lower.     

Behavioral response of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) to vessel traffic

A series of land-based surveys were conducted at two vantage points of known dolphin abundance in Hong Kong. The purpose of this study was to determine the behavioral response of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) to vessel traffic. Results indicated that dolphins dove for a longer duration in areas of heavy vessel traffic or when there was the presence of an oncoming vessel. Dependent upon the type of vessel and the relative distance, dolphins might flee, continue their ongoing activity, perform a new activity, or approach the vessel. Whilst slow-moving vessels appeared not to cause immediate stress on the dolphin community, fast-moving vessels often cause disruption of behavior and social life. In order to ensure a better environment for the animals, we suggest that proactive conservation measures such as the creation of a marine park, rules and regulations for dolphin watching activities, and regional control of vessel speed should be implemented.     

Mass transport in a two-layer wave boundary layer

The transport of a chemical species under the pure action of surface progressive waves in the benthic boundary layer which is loaded with dense suspended sediments is studied theoretically. The flow structure of the boundary layer is approximated by that of a two-layer Stokes boundary layer with a sharp interface between clear water and a heavy fluid. The simplest model of constant eddy diffusivities is adopted and the exchange of matter with the bed is ignored. For a thin layer of heavy fluid, whose thickness is comparable to the surface wave amplitude and the Stokes boundary layer thickness, effective transport equations are deduced using an averaging technique based on the method of homogenization. The effective advection velocity is found to be equal to the depth-averaged mass transport velocity, while the dispersion coefficient can be shown to be positive definite. Explicit expressions for the transport coefficients are obtained as functions of fluid properties and flow kinematics. Physical discussions on their relations are also presented.     

A modified analytical solution of soil stress distribution for XCC pile foundations

X-section cast-in-place concrete pile (XCC pile) is a new type of pile foundation, which has an X-shaped cross section. Compared to the traditional circular pile of the same cross-sectional area, the bearing capacity of an XCC pile is higher due to increased cross-sectional perimeter. Since Geddes solution is based on St. Venant’s principle, leading to the results independent of the cross-sectional geometry and size, large differences are induced when estimating the soil stress distribution for XCC pile foundations. This paper derives a modified analytical solution, which is dependent on the cross-sectional geometry of XCC pile, from Geddes solution. Validation of this modified solution was conducted through three-dimensional numerical analysis and proven more suitable for XCC pile foundations. Parametric study on three geometrical parameters is conducted using this modified solution. The results indicate that the stress in founding soil due to skin friction decreases with increasing pile radius and central angle of concave, but increases with increasing length of flat side. The stress due to end-bearing decreases with increasing pile radius and length of flat side, but increases with increasing central angle of concave. From the parametric studies, the recommended dimensions of XCC pile radius, length of flat side, and central angle of concave are recommended ranges from 200 to 600 mm, 30 to 60 mm, and 90° to 150°, respectively.     

香港国家地质公园粮船湾组火山岩岩石学研究

在香港国家地质公园西贡火山岩园区,核心地质景观是白垩纪粮船湾组(Kkh)火山岩优美的六方形石柱(柱状节理),它们的岩石类型长期存在熔岩和火山碎屑岩之争。笔者等经野外调查和薄片岩石学研究,确认粮船湾组火山岩实属一种特殊的熔岩——流纹质碎斑熔岩,以普遍的柱状节理、斑晶具有碎斑结构和珠边结构、基质发育霏细结构和流动构造为特征;它们不仅代表了香港地区中生代最晚期火山喷发的产物,而且构成了西贡破火山机构的中央侵出相岩穹。推断粮船湾组火山岩石柱是地球上已知面积最大的流纹质碎斑熔岩石柱群(～150 km2),目前所见的火山岩石柱仅是长期剥蚀后的残余部分。     

Rainfall-induced landslides in Hulu Kelang area, Malaysia

Hulu Kelang is known as one of the most landslide-prone areas in Malaysia. The area has been constantly hit by landslide hazards since 1990s. This paper provides an insight into the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslide in the Hulu Kelang area. Rainfall patterns prior to the occurrences of five selected case studies were first analyzed. The results showed that daily rainfall information is insufficient for predicting landslides in the area. Rainfalls of longer durations, i.e., 3–30 days prior to the landslides should be incorporated into the prediction model. Numerical simulations on a selected case study demonstrated that both matric suction and factor of safety decreased steadily over time until they reached the lowest values on the day of landslide occurrence. Redistribution of infiltrated rainwater in the soil mass could be a reason for the slow response of failure mechanism to rainfall. Based on 21 rainfall-induced landslides that had occurred in the area, three rainfall thresholds were developed as attempts to predict the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslide. The rainfall intensity–duration threshold developed based on the local rainfall conditions provided a reasonably good prediction to the landslide occurrence. The cumulative 3- versus 30-day antecedent precipitation index threshold chart was capable of giving the most reliable prediction with the limiting threshold line for major landslide yielded a reliability of 97.6 %.     

Characterization of Distributional Forms for Compositional Data and Associated Distributional Tests

A variety of approaches to the testing of distributional forms for compositional data has appeared in the literature, all based on logratio or Box–Cox transformation techniques and to a degree dependent on the divisor chosen in the formation of ratios for these transformations. This paper, recognizing the special algebraic–geometric structure of the standard simplex sample space for compositional problems, the use of the fundamental simplicial singular value decomposition, and an associated power-perturbation characterization of compositional variability, attempts to provide a definitive approach to such distributional testing problems. Our main consideration is the characterization and testing of additive logistic–normal form, but we also indicate possible applications to logistic skew normal forms once a full range of multivariate tests emerges. The testing strategy is illustrated with both simulated data and applications to some real geological compositional data sets.     

Anomalous particle-production thresholds through systematic and non-systematic quantum-gravity effects

A growing number of studies is being devoted to the identification of plausible quantum properties of spacetime which might give rise to observably large effects. The literature on this subject is now relatively large, including studies in string theory, loop quantum gravity and non-commutative geometry. It is useful to divide the various proposals into proposals involving a systematic quantum-gravity effect (an effect that would shift the main/average prediction for a given observable quantity) and proposals involving a non-systematic quantum-gravity effect (an effect that would introduce new fundamental uncertanties in some observable quantity). The case of quantum-gravity-induced particle-production-threshold anomalies, a much studied example of potentially observable quantum-gravity effect, is here used as an example to illustrate the differences to be expected between systematic and non-systematic effects.     

Simulation of wave propagation over a submerged bar using the VOF method with a two-equation k– turbulence modeling

A two-equation k– turbulence model is used in this paper to simulate the propagation of cnoidal waves over a submerged bar, where the free surface is handled by the volume-of-fluid (VOF) method. Using a VOF partial-cell variable and a donor–acceptor method, the model is capable of treating irregular boundaries, including arbitrary bottom topography and internal obstacles, where the no-slip condition is satisfied. The model also allows the viscous sublayer to be modeled by a wall function approximation implemented in the grid nodes that are immediately adjacent to a wall boundary. The numerical model applied to the propagation of cnoidal waves over a submerged bar can produce results that are in general agreement with some laboratory measurements. Some remarks arising from the comparison between the computational and experimental results are presented.     

Rainfall Variability Index (RVI) analysis of dry spells in Malaysia

Natural Hazards - The lower number of rainfall events resulting in drier environment over the years is a crucial phenomenon attracting the concern of all around the world. The impact of rainfall...