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1.
Geological and geophysical surveys of active submarine volcanoes offshore and southeast of Epi Island, Vanuatu, New Hebrides
Arc, have delineated details of the structure and acoustic stratigraphy of three volcanic cones. These submarine cones, named
Epia, Epib, and Epic, are aligned east-west and spaced 3.5 km apart on the rim of a submerged caldera. At least three acoustic
sequences, of presumed Quaternary age, can be identified on single-channel seismic-reflection profiles. Rocks dredged from
these cones include basalt, dacite, and cognate gabbroic inclusions with magmatic affinities similar to those of the Karua
(an active submarine volcano off the southeastern tip of Epi) lavas. 相似文献
2.
The major fisheries on the Pacific coast of Canada can be grouped into 12 species that have consistently represented about 80–90% of the total catch from the past to the present. A review of population dynamics of these species indicates that climate and the ocean environment have a major impact on their productivity. We review the history of Canada's Pacific coast fishery to show that trends in catch were similar to trends in the climate and ocean environment. Decadal scale patterns in climate and the ocean are termed regimes and we show that it is the regime scale of climate variability that most influences the long-term trends in the catches in these major fisheries. Ignoring the impacts of regime shifts on the abundance trends in the future could result in collapses of major fisheries. The difficulty of knowing when a regime shift will occur may be overcome as we discover more about the mechanisms that affect the decadal-scale trends in the rotational velocity of the solid earth which is measured as the length of day (LOD). 相似文献
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Long-term climate monitoring and extreme events 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Neville Nicholls 《Climatic change》1995,31(2-4):231-245
Problems with long-term monitoring of various extreme meteorological events (including tropical and extratropical cyclones, extreme winds, temperatures and precipitation, and mesoscale events) are examined. For many types of extreme events, the maintenance of long-term homogeneity of observations is more difficult than is the case for means of variables. In some cases, however, a strategy of using more than a single variable to define an event, along with the careful elimination of biases in the data, can provide quantitative information about trends. Special care needs to be taken with extreme events deduced from meteorological analyses, because changes in analysis and observation systems are certain to have affected extremes. Also, compositing of observations from more than one station, using differences in means (of temperature for instance) to produce a single long-term site, may not remove the biases in the extremes. These problems, along with ambiguities in defining extreme events, and difficulties in combining different analyses from different sites, complicate (and perhaps invalidate) attempts to determine whether extreme weather is becoming more frequent. The best that is likely to be achieved, even with increased emphasis on attaining the high-level of homogeneity necessary in the observations, is to monitor long-term variations in certain important extreme events, in select locations with high-quality data. Regional indices of important extreme events, selected on the basis of their damage potential and capable of adequate monitoring, may be established. If, in the future, we are to answer the question “Are extreme weather events becoming more frequent?”, we must establish and protect high-quality stations capable of monitoring the most important extreme events (perhaps with such regional indices), and ensure that changes affecting the recording of extreme events (e.g., changes in exposure) are meticulously documented. 相似文献
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Vera Markgraf John R. Dodson A. Peter Kershaw Matt S. McGlone Neville Nicholls 《Climate Dynamics》1992,6(3-4):193-211
Paleovegetation maps were reconstructed based on a network of pollen records from Australia, New Zealand, and southern South America for 18 000, 12000, 9000, 6000, and 3000 BP and interpreted in terms of paleoclimatic patterns. These patterns permitted us to speculate on past atmospheric circulation in the South Pacific and the underlying forcing missing line mechanisms. During full glacial times, with vastly extended Australasian land area and circum-Antarctic ice-shelves, arid and cold conditions characterized all circum-South Pacific land areas, except for a narrow band in southern South America (43° to 45°S) that might have been even wetter and moister than today. This implies that ridging at subtropical and mid-latitudes must have been greatly increased and that the storm tracks were located farther south than today. At 12000 BP when precipitation had increased in southern Australia, New Zealand, and the mid-latitudes of South America, ridging was probably still as strong as before but had shifted into the eastern Pacific, leading to weaker westerlies in the western Pacific and more southerly located westerlies in the eastern Pacific. At 9000 BP when, except for northernmost Australia, precipitation reached near modern levels, the south Pacific ridges and the westerlies must have weakened. Because of the continuing land connection between New Guinea and Australia, and reduced seasonality, the monsoon pattern had still not developed. By 6000 BP, moisture levels in Australia and New Zealand reached their maximum, indicating that the monsoon pattern had become established. Ridging in the South Pacific was probably weaker than today, and the seasonal shift of the westerlies was stronger than before. By 3000 BP essentially modern conditions had been achieved, characterized by patterns of high seasonal variability.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program 相似文献
8.
A self-organising map is used to classify the winter circulation affecting southwest Western Australia (SWWA) into 20 different synoptic types. The changes in the frequency of these types and their links to observed rainfall are analysed to further understand the significant, prolonged, rainfall drop observed in this region since 1975. The temporal variability of the different synoptic types link well with the observed rainfall changes. The frequency of the troughs associated with wet conditions across SWWA has declined markedly since 1975 while the frequency of the synoptic types with high pressure over the continent, associated with dry conditions, has increased. Combining the frequency of the synoptic systems with the amount of observed rainfall allows a quantitative analysis of the rainfall decline. The decreased frequency of the troughs associated with very wet conditions accounts for half of the decline. Reductions in the amount of rainfall precipitating from each system also contribute to the decline. Large-scale circulation changes, including increases in the mean sea-level pressure and a decrease in the general baroclinicity of the region have been associated with the rainfall decline. These changes are suggested to be linked to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Due to the strong link between the number of trough types and the rainfall over SWWA, the shifts in the frequency of these synoptic types could be used as a tool to assess simulated rainfall changes, particularly into the future. 相似文献
9.
Transient creep and semibrittle behavior of crystalline rocks 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We review transient creep and semibrittle behavior of crystalline solids. The results are expected to be pertinent to crystalline rocks undergoing deformation in the depth range 5 to 20 km, corresponding to depths of focus of many major earthquakes. Transient creep data for crystalline rocks at elevated temperatures are analyzed but are poorly understood because of lack of information on the deformation processes which, at low to moderate pressure, are likely to be semibrittle in nature. Activation energies for transient creep at high effective confining pressure are much higher than those found for atmospheric pressure tests in which thermally-activated microfracturing probably dominates the creep rate. Empirical transient creep equations are extrapolated at 200° to 600°C, stresses from 0.1 to 1.0 kbar, to times ranging from 3.17×102 to 3.17×108 years. At the higher temperatures, appreciable transient creep strains may take place but the physical significance of the results is in question because the flow mechanisms have not been determined. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate careful research on this important topic. 相似文献
10.
Jean-Claude C. Mercier Douglas A. Anderson Neville L. Carter 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1977,115(1-2):199-226
Mechanical data and flow processes from steady state deformation experiments may be used to infer the state of stress in the lithosphere and asthenosphere. Extrapolations of flow equations to a representative geologic strain rate of 10–14/sec. for halite, marble, quartzite, dolomite, dunite and enstatolite are now warranted because the steady state flow processes in the experiments are identical to those in rocks and because the geotherms are reasonably well established. More direct estimates are obtained from free dislocation densities, subgrain sizes and recrystallized grain sizes all of which are functions only of stress. Using the last of these techniques, we have estimated stress profiles as a function of depth from xenoliths in basalts and kimberlites, whose depths of equilibration were determined by pyroxene techniques, from four different areas of subcontinental and suboceanic upper mantle. The results are similar and indicate stress differences of about 200 to 300 bars at 40 to 50 km, decaying to a few tens of bars at depths betow 100 km. These stresses are reasonable and are in accord with extrapolations of the mechanical data provided that allowance is made for a general increase in strain rate and decrease in viscosity with depth. 相似文献