On the use of imagery for climate change engagement

This article answers calls from scholars to attend to a research gap concerning the visual representation of climate change. We present results from three Q-methodology workshops held in Melbourne (Australia), Norwich (UK) and Boulder (USA) investigating engagement with climate change imagery drawn from mass media sources. Participants were provided with a concourse of climate change images drawn from a newspaper content analysis carried out across all three countries, and asked to carry out two Q-sorts: first, for salience (‘this image makes me feel climate change is important’) and second, for efficacy (‘this image makes me feel I can do something about climate change’). We found results remarkably consistent both across and within country cohorts. This may indicate the presence of a dominant, mainstream discourse around climate imagery. We found that imagery of climate impacts promotes feelings of salience, but undermines self-efficacy; that imagery of energy futures imagery promotes self-efficacy; and that images of politicians and celebrities strongly undermine saliency, and undermine self-efficacy for the Australian cohort. These results, if widely replicable, have implications for climate change communication and engagement. Our results suggest that imagery plays a role in either increasing the sense of importance of the issue of climate change (saliency), or in promoting feelings of being able to do something about climate change (efficacy) – but few, if any, images seem to do both. Communications strategies should assess the purpose of their messages, considering these findings regarding salience and efficacy in this study, and choose to employ images accordingly.     

A model for assessing iceberg hazard

Natural Hazards - With the polar regions opening up to more marine activities but iceberg numbers more likely to increase than decline as a result of global warming, the risk from icebergs to...     

The discovery and history of the Dalgaranga meteorite crater,Western Australia

The Dalgaranga meteorite crater, 100 km northeast of Yalgoo, Western Australia, was one of the first impact structures identified in Australia, the smallest isolated crater found in Australia, and the only confirmed crater in the world associated with a mesosiderite projectile. Seventeen years passed before the Dalgaranga meteorites were described in the scientific literature, and nearly 40 years passed before a survey of the structure was published. The reasons for the time gap were never explained and a number of factual errors about the discovery and early history remain uncorrected in the scientific literature. Using historical and archival documents, and discussions with people involved in Dalgaranga research, the reasons for this time gap are explained by a series of minor misidentifications and coincidences. The age of the crater has yet to be determined, but using published data, we estimate the projectile mass to be 500–1000 kg.     

Diffusion and partition coefficients of minor and trace elements in San Carlos olivine at 1,300°C with some geochemical implications

Lattice diffusion coefficients have been determined for 19 elements (Li, Be, Na, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Zn, Y, Zr, Eu, Gd, Lu and Hf) in a single crystal of San Carlos olivine as a function of crystallographic orientation, at 1,300°C, 1 bar and fO₂ = 10^−8.3 bars, by equilibration with a synthetic silicate melt. Results for Li, Na, V, Cr, Fe and Zn are from diffusion of these elements out of the olivine, starting from their indigenous concentrations; those for all other elements are from diffusion into the olivine, from the silicate melt reservoir. Our 25-day experiment produced diffusion profiles 50 to > 700 μm in length, which are sufficiently long that precise analyses could be achieved by scanning laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, even at concentration levels well below 1 μg g⁻¹. For the divalent cations Ca, Mn, Fe and Ni, profiles were also obtained by electron microprobe analysis. The results of the two methods agree well with each other, and are consistent with divalent cation diffusion coefficients previously determined using different experimental methodologies. Olivine/melt partition coefficients retrieved from the data are also consistent with other published partitioning data, indicating that element incorporation and transport in olivine in our experiment occurred via mechanisms appropriate to natural conditions. Most of the examined trace elements diffuse through olivine at similar rates to the major octahedral cations Fe and Mg, showing that cation charge and radius have little direct influence on diffusion rates. Aluminium and P remain low and constant in the olivine, implying negligible transport at our analytical scale, hence Al and P diffusion rates that are at least two orders of magnitude slower than the other cations studied here. All determined element diffusivities are anisotropic, with diffusion fastest along the [001] axis, except Y and the REEs, which diffuse isotropically. The results suggest that element diffusivity in olivine is largely controlled by cation site preference, charge balance mechanisms and point-defect concentrations. Elements that are present on multiple cation sites in olivine (e.g. Be and Ti) and trivalent elements that are charge-balanced by octahedral site vacancies tend to diffuse at relatively fast rates.     

Population, uncertainty, and learning in climate change decision analysis

The prospect of learning about various uncertainties relevant to analyses of the climate change issue is important because it can affect estimates of the costs of both damages and mitigation, and it can influence the optimal timing of emissions reductions. Baseline scenarios representing future emissions in the absence of mitigation are one of the major sources of uncertainty. Here we investigate how fast we might realistically expect to learn about the outlook for long-term population growth, as one determinant of future baseline emissions. That is, we estimate how long it might take to substantially revise current estimates of the likelihood of various population size outcomes over the twenty-first century. We draw on recent work showing that, because population growth is path dependent, we can learn about the long term outlook by waiting to observe how population changes in the short term. We then explore the implications of uncertainty and of this learning potential for mitigation costs and for optimal emissions. Using a simple model, we show that uncertainty in population growth translates into an uncertainty in the optimal tax rate of about $200/tC by 2050 for a range of stabilization levels. When learning is taken into account, it allows for mitigation strategies to change in response to new information, leading to a slight reduction in the expected value of mitigation costs, and a substantial reduction in the likelihood of high cost outcomes. We also find that while learning can lead to large revisions over the next few decades in anticipated population growth, this potential does not imply large changes in near-term optimal emissions reductions. Results suggest that further work on the potential for learning about other determinants of emissions could have larger effects on expected mitigation costs.     

Heterogeneous distribution of phosphorus in olivine from otherwise well-equilibrated spinel peridotite xenoliths and its implications for the mantle geochemistry of lithium

The major- and trace-element abundances of the coexisting phases of four metasomatized spinel peridotite xenoliths from the Anakies locality (SE Australia) were determined by electron microprobe and laser-ablation ICP-MS. The compositions of all phases are remarkably homogeneous, with the exception of phosphorus (P), lithium (Li) and sodium (Na) in olivine. These three elements are enriched in large parts of most olivine crystals due to a second metasomatic episode. Apart from these elements, all phases are in mutual equilibrium with respect to both their major- and trace-element compositions. Li and Na show a strong correlation with P in olivine, although molar Li + Na are an order of magnitude less than molar P, indicating that the substitution mechanism of these elements is more complex than the simple charge-balanced coupled exchange ^IVSi⁴⁺ + ^VI(FeMg)²⁺ = ^IVP⁵⁺ + ^VI(LiNa)⁺. We suggest that Li and Na are decorating octahedral-site cation vacancies formed by the original incorporation of P. Elemental maps revealed that the P zoning patterns are concentric in a few large olivine porphyroblasts, but form irregular patches in most crystals. This distribution of P is proposed to be the result of a two-stage process, whereby the initial concentric zoning, caused by its exceptionally sluggish diffusion after metasomatic influx, is broken up by extensive sub-solidus deformation and recrystallization, attesting to large grain-scale strains even within the lithosphere. Such strains must be an efficient means of ensuring trace-element equilibrium during partial melting. The association of Li with P in olivine may help to explain the variability of Li abundances in mantle minerals and to interpret Li diffusion experiments and Li isotopic fractionation.     

The geochemistry of the volatile trace elements As, Cd, Ga, In and Sn in the Earth’s mantle: New evidence from in situ analyses of mantle xenoliths

The abundances of 30 trace elements, including the volatile chalcophile/siderophile elements As, Cd, Ga, In and Sn were determined by laser ablation ICP-MS in minerals of 19 anhydrous and 5 hydrous spinel peridotite xenoliths from three continents. The majority of samples were fertile lherzolites with more than 5% clinopyroxene; several samples have major element compositions close to estimates of the primitive mantle. All samples have been previously analysed for bulk-rock major, minor and lithophile trace elements. They cover a wide range of equilibration temperatures from about 850 to 1250 °C and a pressure range from 0.8 to 3.0 GPa. A comparison of results from bulk-rock analyses with concentrations obtained from combining silicate and oxide mineral data with modal mineralogy, gave excellent agreement, with the exception of As. Arsenic is the only element analysed that has high concentrations in sulphides. For all other elements sulphides can be neglected as host phases in these mantle rocks. The major host phase for Cd, In and Sn is clinopyroxene and if present, amphibole. Cadmium and In appear to behave moderately incompatibly during mantle melting similar to Yb.The data yield new and more reliable mantle abundances for Cd (35 ± 7 ppb), In (18 ± 3 ppb) and Sn (91 ± 28 ppb). The In value is similar to the Mg and CI-normalized Zn abundance of the mantle, although In is cosmochemically more volatile than Zn. The high In content suggests a high content of volatile elements in general in proto-Earth material. The lower relative abundances of volatile chalcophile elements such as Cd, S, Se and Te might be explained by sulphide segregation during core formation. The very low relative abundances of volatile and highly incompatible lithophile elements such as Br, Cl and I, and also C, N and rare gases, imply loss during Earth accretion, arguably by collisional erosion from differentiated planetesimals and protoplanets.