A model of inter-annual variability in beach levels

Beach profile data, collected twice per year at 19 stations over a 25 km length of coastline in Tremadoc Bay, have been analysed to quantify the inter-annual variability in beach levels over a 7 year period and the results compared against the output of a numerical model. Using hourly wind data as forcing, the morphological development of northern Tremadoc Bay was simulated by wave, tidal, longshore transport, total transport and bed level change models. The modelling methodology was efficient and innovative, allowing realistic simulations of long duration with a time step of 1 h, hence capturing the high frequency nature of wind events. The model was run for each of the 7 autumn/winter periods (generally November–April) and the modelled net change in beach levels compared with the data from all 19 stations. The model results had reasonable agreement with the beach profile surveys. However, the observed magnitude of bed level change in the bay lagged the model output by 1 year, indicating that sediment processes acting over a larger area are important in a relatively localised study of inter-annual variability.     

Using an artificial neural network to model seasonal changes in beach profiles

An artificial neural network (ANN) was applied to predict seasonal beach profile evolution at various locations along the Tremadoc Bay, eastern Irish Sea. The beach profile variations in 19 stations for a period of about 7 years were studied using ANN. The model results were compared with field data. The most critical part of constructing ANN was the selection of minimum effective input data and the choice of proper activation function. Accordingly, some numerical techniques such as principal component analysis and correlation analysis were employed to detect the proper dataset. The geometric properties of the beach, wind data, local wave climate, and the corresponding beach level changes were fed to a feedforward backpropagation ANN. The performance of less than 0.0007 (mean square error) was achieved. The trained ANN model results had very good agreement with the beach profile surveys for the test data. Results of this study show that ANN can predict seasonal beach profile changes effectively, and the ANN results are generally more accurate when compared with computationally expensive mathematical model of the same study region. The ANN model results can be improved by the addition of more data, but the applicability of this method is limited to the range of the training data.     

Evaluating Global Warming Potentials with historical temperature

Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are evaluated with historical temperature by applying them to convert historical CH₄ and N₂O emissions to equivalent CO₂ emissions. Our GWP analysis is based on an inverse estimation using the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Climate Model (ACC2). We find that, for both CH₄ and N₂O, indices higher than the Kyoto GWPs (100-year time horizon) would reproduce better the historical temperature. The CH₄ GWP provides a best fit to the historical temperature when it is calculated with a time horizon of 44 years. However, the N₂O GWP does not approximate well the historical temperature with any time horizon. We introduce a new exchange metric, TEMperature Proxy index (TEMP), that is defined so that it provides a best fit to the temperature projection of a given period. By comparing GWPs and TEMPs, we find that the inability of the N₂O GWP to reproduce the historical temperature is caused by the GWP calculation methodology in IPCC using simplifying assumptions for the background system dynamics and uncertain parameter estimations. Furthermore, our TEMP calculations demonstrate that indices have to be progressively updated upon the acquisition of new measurements and/or the advancement of our understanding of Earth system processes.     

Interplanetary Scintillation Observations of Stream Interaction Regions in the Solar Wind

We present a summary of results from ten years of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations of stream interaction regions (SIRs) in the solar wind. Previous studies had shown that SIRs were characterized by intermediate-velocity solar wind and – in the case of compressive interactions – higher levels of scintillation. In this study we considered all cases of intermediate velocities in IPS observations from the European Incoherent SCATter (EISCAT) radar facility made at low- and mid-heliographic latitudes between 1994 and 2003. After dismissing intermediate-velocity observations which were associated with solar-wind transients (such as coronal mass ejections) we found that the remaining cases of intermediate velocities lay above coronal structures where stream interaction would be expected. An improved ballistic mapping method (compared to that used in earlier EISCAT studies of interaction regions) was used to identify the regions of raypath in IPS observations which might be expected to include interaction regions and to project these regions out to the distances of in-situ observations. The early stages of developing compression regions, consistent with their development on the leading edges of compressive stream interaction regions, were clearly detected as close to the Sun as 30 R _⊙, and further ballistic projection out to the distances of in-situ observations clearly associated these developing structures with density and velocity features characteristic of developed interaction regions in in-situ data in the cases when such data were available. The same approach was applied to study non-compressive interaction regions (shear layers) between solar-wind streams of different velocities where the stream interface lay at near-constant latitude and the results compared with those from compressive interaction regions. The results confirm that intermediate velocities seen in IPS observations above stream boundaries may arise from either detection of intermediate-velocity flow in compression regions, or from non-compressive shear layers. The variation in velocity about the mean determined from IPS measurements (representing the spread in velocity across that part of the raypath associated with the interaction region in the analysis) was comparable in compressive and non-compressive regions – a potentially interesting result which may contain important information on the geometry of developing SIRs. It is clear from these results that compressive and non-compressive interaction regions belong to the same class of stream – stream interaction, with the dominant mode determined by the latitudinal gradient of the stream interface. Finally, we discuss the results from this survey in the light of new data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HI) on the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft and other instruments, and suggest possible directions for further work.     

The effect of silica activity on the diffusion of Ni and Co in olivine

The diffusion of Ni and Co was measured at atmospheric pressure in synthetic monocrystalline forsterite (Mg₂SiO₄) from 1,200 to 1,500 °C at the oxygen fugacity of air, along [100], with the activities of SiO₂ and MgO defined by either forsterite + periclase (fo + per buffer) or forsterite + protoenstatite (fo + en buffer). Diffusion profiles were measured by three methods: laser-ablation inductively-coupled-plasma mass-spectrometry, nano-scale secondary ion mass spectrometry and electron microprobe, with good agreement between the methods. For both Ni and Co, the diffusion rates in protoenstatite-buffered experiments are an order of magnitude faster than in the periclase-buffered experiments at a given temperature. The diffusion coefficients D _M (M = Ni or Co) for the combined data set can be fitted to the equation:

$$\log \,D_{\text{M}} \,\left( {{\text{in}}\,{\text{m}}^{2} \,{\text{s}}^{ - 1} } \right) = - 6.77( \pm 0.33) + \Delta E_{\text{a}} (M)/RT + 2/3\log a_{{SiO_{2} }}$$

with E_a(Ni) = ? 284.3 kJ mol^?1 and E_a(Co) = ? 275.9 kJ mol^?1, with an uncertainty of ±10.2 kJ mol^?1. This equation fits the data (24 experiments) to ±0.1 in log D _M. The dependence of diffusion on \(a_{{{\text{SiO}}_{2} }}\) is in agreement with a point-defect model in which Mg-site vacancies are charge-balanced by Si interstitials. Comparative experiments with San Carlos olivine of composition Mg_1.8Fe_0.2SiO₄ at 1,300 °C give a slightly small dependence on \(a_{{{\text{SiO}}_{2} }}\), with D \(\propto\) (\(a_{{{\text{SiO}}_{2} }}^{0.5}\)), presumably because the Mg-site vacancies increase with incorporation of Fe³⁺ in the Fe-bearing olivines. However, the dependence on fO₂ is small, with D \(\propto\) (fO₂)^0.12±0.12. These results show the necessity of constraining the chemical potentials of all the stoichiometric components of a phase when designing diffusion experiments. Similarly, the chemical potentials of the major-element components must be taken into account when applying experimental data to natural minerals to constrain the rates of geological processes. For example, the diffusion of divalent elements in olivine from low SiO₂ magmas, such as kimberlites or carbonatites, will be an order of magnitude slower than in olivine from high SiO₂ magmas, such as tholeiitic basalts, at equal temperatures and fO₂.

     

A numerical study of lateral grain size sorting by an estuarine front

A two-dimensional non-hydrostatic model of baroclinic flow was applied to an estuarine cross-section. The model was driven by lateral variations in density and produced the classical bilateral cross-sectional recirculation of an axial convergent front. Simulations of the erosion, transport and deposition of sediment by the frontal secondary flows were applied to a range of grain sizes. The model predicted considerable lateral variation in grain size deposition across the frontal recirculation zone, analogous to the lateral grain size sorting which occurs in river meanders. The sorting primarily took place between the frontal surface convergence and the bankward limit of recirculation. A series of sensitivity tests revealed that the contribution of the front to lateral grain size sorting was strongly influenced by the lateral channel slopes and lateral density gradient. The results from this numerical study support previous suggestions (based on observations of near-surface discontinuities in sediment concentration across the frontal interface) that fronts may act as sieves within the estuarine sediment transport system.     

Negative learning

New technical information may lead to scientific beliefs that diverge over time from the a posteriori right answer. We call this phenomenon, which is particularly problematic in the global change arena, negative learning. Negative learning may have affected policy in important cases, including stratospheric ozone depletion, dynamics of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and population and energy projections. We simulate negative learning in the context of climate change with a formal model that embeds the concept within the Bayesian framework, illustrating that it may lead to errant decisions and large welfare losses to society. Based on these cases, we suggest approaches to scientific assessment and decision making that could mitigate the problem. Application of the tools of science history to the study of learning in global change, including critical examination of the assessment process to understand how judgments are made, could provide important insights on how to improve the flow of information to policy makers.     

广西两江铜矿床地质特征及找矿潜力分析

两江铜矿床主要赋存于寒武系地层中,矿体主要受EW、SN向断裂构造控制,已控制8个铜矿带,矿石自然类型以硫化矿石为主,金属矿物以黄铜矿为主,共生矿物多达二十多种。围岩蚀变主要有硅化,绢云母化。矿床类型是一个与石英斑岩侵位有关、受断裂裂隙带控制的脉状铜矿。研究表明,在矿区的北部坡屋一带,已知矿带的深部、东部延伸及南部外围仍有较好的找矿前景。     

Metals in sediments of springs and cave streams as environmental indicators in karst areas

The content of heavy metals and arsenic in sediments of karst streams in southern Missouri was investigated for its potential use as an indicator of pollution. A three-step sequential extraction procedure was utilized for this purpose. The amount of trace elements bound to each extraction phase gives insight of its availability and geochemical dependence. These results were complemented with analyses of correlation and spatial variability. Although sediments collected in this study remained below EPAs critical value guidelines, concentration in the mobile phases and higher normalized Mn values successfully identified sites with concentrations higher than background levels. Correlation among elements was poor in most cases; among the trace metals only Cu and Zn correlated while Pb correlated with Ca, Al, Mn and Fe. Spatial variability analysis confirmed that natural variation among adjacent sediment samples is a common occurrence. The urban spring Ward Branch showed the highest levels of Cr, Zn, Pb and As.     

Improvement of the sediment ecosystem following diversion of an intertidal sewage outfall at the Fraser river estuary,Canada, with emphasis on Corophium salmonis (Amphipoda)

Primary treated sewage effluent from the city of Vancouver, Canada was deposited directly onto the intertidal ecosystem of Sturgeon bank, Fraser river estuary between 1962 and 1988. In response to the degraded sediment conditions an azoic zone developed near the discharge outfall. Effluent discharges into the intertidal zone were almost completely stopped in 1988 with the construction of a submerged outfall. Our studies, conducted between 1994 and 1996, showed considerable improvement in the environment of the mudflat ecosystem, including increased dissolved oxygen, decreased sediment chlorophyll, decreased organic material in the sediment, reduced heavy metals in surficial sediment and increased grain size. The amphipod Corophium salmonis, important in the food web for juvenile salmon and other fish species, recolonized the previously azoic location. At reference stations, C. salmonis density was similar to that observed in previous surveys two decades earlier. Our data strongly suggest that improvement or sediment conditions near the former sewage outfall was a major factor enabling colonization by C. salmonis.