A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.     

The influence of demersal trawl fishing gears on the resuspension of dinoflagellate cysts

To investigate the influence of towed demersal fishing gears on dinoflagellate cyst resuspension, towing trials with four gear components were carried out at three sites of differing sediment type in the Moray Firth, Scotland. Samples of sediment plumes were collected using plankton nets mounted on a towed sledge. Diversity of resuspended dinoflagellate cysts was similar at all sites and included Protoperidinium and Gonyaulax spp., Proroceratium reticulatum and unidentified ‘round brown’ cysts. Cyst concentrations per gram of resuspended sediment varied by gear component and sediment particle size distribution. Gear components with lower hydrodynamic drag generated wakes with smaller shear stresses, mobilising fewer larger sand particles, giving larger concentrations of cysts. Muddy sediments contained higher cyst concentrations which declined with increasing grain size. This study has shown that fishing gear and sediment type can influence the redistribution of dinoflagellate cysts and highlights the importance this may have in relation to dinoflagellate blooms.     

The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways

Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual “no policy” scenarios would be an important step toward meeting this challenge. To this end, we introduce the concept of “shared socio-economic (reference) pathways”. Sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions may be achieved by locating the pathways along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. The pathways should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between integrated assessment modelers and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions: climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the pathways. For some applications, socio-economic pathways may have to be augmented by “shared climate policy assumptions” capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. We conclude that the development of shared socio-economic (reference) pathways, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between integrated assessment and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers.     

Mineralogy and crystallization history of a highly differentiated REE-enriched hypabyssal rhyolite: Round Top laccolith,Trans-Pecos,Texas

Mineralogy and Petrology - The Round Top hypabyssal rhyolite laccolith is a highly evolved magmatic system, enriched in incompatible elements including REE [Rare Earth Element(s)], U, Be, and F....     

Selected topics in arctic atmosphere and climate

This paper summarizes the main elements of four IPY projects that examine the Arctic Atmosphere. All four projects focus on present conditions with a view to anticipating possible climate change. All four investigate the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land interfacial surfaces. One project uses computer models to simulate the dynamics of the Arctic atmosphere, storms, and their interactions with the ocean and ice interface. Another project uses statistical methods to infer transports of pollutants as simulated in large-scale global atmospheric and oceanic models verifying results with available observations. A third project focuses on measurements of pollutants at the ice-ocean?Catmosphere interface, with reference to model estimates. The fourth project is concerned with multiple, high accuracy measurements at Eureka in the Canadian Archipelago. While these projects are distinctly different, led by different teams and interdisciplinary collaborators, with different technical approaches and methodologies, and differing objectives, they all strive to understand the processes of the Arctic atmosphere and climate, and to lay the basis for projections of future changes. Key findings include: ? Decreased sea ice leads to more intense storms, higher winds, reduced surface albedo, increased surface air temperature, and enhanced vertical mixing in the upper ocean. ? Arctic warming may affect toxic chemicals by remobilizing persistent organic pollutants and augmenting mercury deposition/retention in the environment. ? Changes in sea ice can dramatically change processes in and at the ice surface related to ozone, mercury and bromine oxide and related chemical/physical properties. ? Structure and properties of the Arctic atmospheric??troposphere to stratosphere??and tracking of transport of pollution and smoke plumes from mid-latitudes to the poles.     

Mechanism and kinetics of pseudomorphic mineral replacement reactions: A case study of the replacement of pentlandite by violarite

Although pseudomorphic mineral replacement reactions are common in all geological environments, and have long been considered important to many geological processes such as metamorphism, metasomatism, diagenesis, and chemical weathering, their mechanisms are still not well known. We present a combined textural and kinetic study of the replacement of pentlandite, (Fe,Ni)₉S₈, by violarite (NiFe)₃S₄, and describe the mechanisms and kinetic behavior of this reaction by considering the role of the fluid phase, the causes of coupling between pentlandite dissolution and violarite precipitation, the rate-limiting steps controlling the kinetic behavior, and the origin of the length scale of the features preserved during pseudomorphism.The experiments were conducted under mild hydrothermal conditions (80-210 °C, vapor saturated pressures). Reaction kinetics shows a complex behavior depending on various physical and chemical parameters including temperature, pH, concentrations of various reaction species, solid-weight-to-fluid-volume-ratio and specific surface area. The rate of replacement (i) increases with temperature from 80 to 125 °C, then decreases as temperature further increases to 210 °C, (ii) first increases then decreases with decreasing pH from pH 6 to 1, (iii) increases with increasing concentration of oxidants such as O_2(aq), H₂O₂, and KMnO₄, but decreases with increasing concentration of Ni²⁺ and Fe³⁺, and with increasing solid-weight-to-fluid-volume ratio, (iv) increases linearly with the specific surface area. This kinetic behavior as well as the resulting textures revealed a coupled dissolution-reprecipitation reaction mechanism.Nanometer-scale pseudomorphic replacement, through which the crystallographic orientation of pentlandite is inherited by violarite, occurs only between 1 < pH < 6, and spatial coupling between dissolution and reprecipitation is controlled by the local solution chemistry as well as by epitaxial nucleation mediated by the pentlandite substrate. The kinetic results show that pentlandite dissolution is rate-limiting under mild acidic to neutral conditions (1 < pH < 6), while violarite precipitation is rate-limiting under strong acidic conditions (pH 1). The difference in rate-limiting steps influences the coupling mechanism and causes the different degrees of preservation (length scale of pseudomorphism) and different morphologies observed at high and low pHs: pentlandite dissolution being rate-limiting results in nanoscale coupling between dissolution and precipitation and thus nanoscale pseudomorphism (length scale <20 nm), in which the replacement precisely preserves the morphology and internal details, resembling remarkably the natural pentlandite/violarite assemblages. In contrast, violarite precipitation being rate-limiting results in microscale pseudomorphism (length scale ∼10 μm): the morphology of the pentlandite grains is only roughly preserved and internal details are not preserved.This case study illustrates some general principles of replacement reactions proceeding via the coupled dissolution-reprecipitation mechanism: (i) primary mineral dissolution needs to be rate-limiting compared to the secondary mineral precipitation in order to achieve a high degree pseudomorphic replacement; (ii) the effects of solution composition on reaction kinetics can be qualitatively rationalized by considering the rate-limiting step reaction.     

Experimental Study on the Solubility of Cr^2 in Olivine,Orthopyroxene and Spinel Solid Solutions

Experiments have been performed on the system MgO-SiO2-Cr-O at 0-2.88 GPa and 1100-1450℃,focusing on the stability of Cr^2 in olivine(O1),orthopyroxene(Opx) and spinel(Sp) and its partitioning between these phases.Analytical reagent grade chemicals,MgO,SiO2,Cr2O3.and Cr were used to make starting mixtures.Excess Cr(50%) was then added in these mixtures to ensure that the resultant phases were in equilibrium with the metal Cr.Flux of BaO B2O3(%) was added for facilitating experimental equilibrium and crystal growth.Cr was used as capsule material.All phases in the product were identified by X-ray and analyzed by electron microprobe,The contents of CrO in the different phases(O1,Opx and Sp)were calculated according to stoichiometry.The obtained results of calculation indicate that Cr^3 in Ol and Opx is negligible.The experimental results show;(a) with increasing temperature and decreasing pressure,Cr^2 solubility in Ol,Opx and Sp increases;(b) with in creasing temperature,the partitioning coefficient of Mg and Cr^2 between Ol and Opx decreases,that between Opx and Sp increases,and that between Ol and Sp remains almost unchanged;(c) the effect of pressure on all partitioning coefficients is negligible.     

Metapelitic granulites from Jetty Peninsula,east Antarctica: formation during a single event or by polymetamorphism?

Granulite facies metasedimentary gneiss exposed on Jetty Peninsula, east Antarctica, contains assemblages involving garnet-sillimanite-biotite-cordierite-spinel-ilmenite-rutile and garnet-orthopyroxene-cordierite-biotite, as well as quartz and K-feldspar. Peak assemblages involve garnet + sillimanite + ilmenite (±rutile) and garnet + orthopyroxene. P-T calculations suggest formation conditions of approximately 800d? C at 7-7.5 kbar. Cooling from peak conditions is suggested by biotite + garnet (±sillimanite) overprinting some peak assemblages. A subsequent increase in temperature is inferred from the formation of cordierite + garnet + biotite + ilmenite, garnet + sillimanite + cordierite + ilmenite and cordierite + orthopyroxene assemblages during D2. In slightly zincian bulk compositions, hercynitic spinel + cordierite + sillimanite constitutes the peak D2 assemblage. Average pressure calculations indicate peak pressures of 5.9 ±0.4 kbar at 700d? C for the cordierite-bearing D2 assemblages. Available radiometric data suggest that peak metamorphism occurred at c. 1000 Ma and D2 occurred after 940 ± 20 Ma. The following two possibilities exist for the metamorphic evolution. (1) The formation of the lower pressure cordierite-bearing assemblages is associated with a separate metamorphic event (M2), unrelated to the peak assemblage (M1), and the lower pressure assemblages have no relevance in terms of a single tectonothermal event. (2) The cordierite-bearing assemblages formed during a progression from peak conditions. In this case, the lower pressure assemblages reflect a broadly decompressional metamorphic evolution, during which temperatures fluctuated. Comparison with P-T paths from granulites of similar age in adjacent areas suggests that the second possibility should be preferred. The cooling interval between peak conditions and the development of cordierite-bearing coronas and symplectites suggests affinities with isobarically cooled granulites of similar age immediately to the west, and the low-P/high-T post-peak conditions are similar to the later stages of decompressional paths recognized in much of east Antarctica.     

The effect of oxygen fugacity on the partitioning of Re between crystals and silicate melt during mantle melting

Interpretation of Re-Os isotopic systematics applied to mantle and mantle-derived rocks is currently hindered by the poorly understood behaviour of Re and Os during partial melting. Of particular interest is the incompatibility of Re and how it partitions between melt and the different mantle phases. Here, we study the partitioning behaviour of Re between the common upper mantle minerals (garnet, spinel, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, and olivine) and silicate melt under temperature (1275-1450 °C) and pressure (1.5-3.2 GPa) conditions relevant for basaltic magma genesis, over a range of oxygen fugacity (?O₂) large enough (QFM+5.6 to QFM−2.9) to demonstrate the effects of changing the oxidation state of Re from 4+ to 6+. Rhenium crystal/silicate-melt partition coefficients vary by 4-5 orders of magnitude, from moderately compatible to highly incompatible, for pyroxenes, garnet, and spinel as the oxidation state of Re changes from 4+ to 6+, but Re in either oxidation state is incompatible in olivine. Because the changeover from the one Re oxidation state to the other occurs over the range of ?O₂s pertinent to partial melting in the Earth’s mantle, bulk Re crystal/silicate-melt partition coefficients during mantle melting are also expected to vary significantly according to the oxidation state of the system. For instance, assuming QFM−0.7 and QFM+1.6 as average ?O₂ for mid-ocean ridge (MORBs) and island arc (IABs) basalts, respectively, a difference of at least one order of magnitude for bulk Re partition coefficients is expected (excluding any influence from a sulphide phase). Hence, Re is probably much more incompatible during the genesis of IABs compared to MORBs. Our results also demonstrate that Re⁴⁺ has a partitioning behaviour similar to Ti⁴⁺ rather than Yb, and is accordingly not a sensitive indicator of garnet in the source. The lower concentrations of Re observed in ocean island basalts (OIBs) compared to MORBs are therefore not a result of being generated deeper in the mantle where garnet is stable, leaving the hypothesis of late-stage loss of Re from OIB lavas by degassing as the most plausible explanation.