Wave-tide interaction modulates nearshore wave height

Ocean Dynamics - The combined hazard of large waves occurring at an extreme high water could increase the risk of coastal flooding. Wave-tide interaction processes are known to modulate the wave...     

Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describe alternative outcomes for socioeconomic development. Papers describing the conceptual framework for SSPs refer to challenges to mitigation and to adaptation as fundamental concepts. Identifying which socioeconomic factors are the most important determinants of these challenges, and how to combine them in an internally consistent manner, is critical to scenario design. Here we demonstrate a systematic and traceable approach for identifying and prioritizing scenario elements. In this study, we identify 13 determinants of mitigation and adaptation challenges at a globally aggregated scale based on a survey of 25 experts. In addition, we use 19 expert elicitations and a cross-impact balance analysis to create approximately 1.5 million combinations of trends for these determinants and rank them in terms of internal consistency. Using the 1,000 most consistent combinations, we construct composite metrics for challenges to mitigation and adaptation to uncover distinguishable characteristics for five types of SSPs: those with Low, Medium, and High challenges to both mitigation and adaptation (consistent with SSPs 1–3), and those in which adaptation challenges or mitigation challenges dominate (consistent with SSPs 4–5). We find a distinguishing characteristic for mixed typology SSP4 (low mitigation challenges, high adaptation challenges): High trends for innovation capacity could lower challenges to mitigation but not necessarily challenges to adaptation. We also find that a low trend for quality of governance consistently corresponds to higher challenges to adaptation. These findings are suggestive for future research on the SSPs in particular, while our analytical approach is instructive for scenario development in general.     

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background,process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.     

Public engagement with carbon and climate change: To what extent is the public ‘carbon capable’?

The relevance of climate change for society seems indisputable: scientific evidence points to a significant human contribution in causing climate change, and impacts which will increasingly affect human welfare. In order to meet national and international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets, there is an urgent need to understand and enable societal engagement in mitigation. Yet recent research indicates that this involvement is currently limited: although awareness of climate change is widespread, understanding and behavioral engagement are far lower. Proposals for mitigative ‘personal carbon budgets’ imply a need for public understanding of the causes and consequences of carbon emissions, as well as the ability to reduce emissions. However, little has been done to consider the situated meanings of carbon and energy in everyday life and decisions. This paper builds on the concept of ‘carbon capability’, a term which captures the contextual meanings associated with carbon and individuals’ abilities and motivations to reduce emissions. We present empirical findings from a UK survey of public engagement with climate change and carbon capability, focusing on both individual and institutional dimensions. These findings highlight the diverse public understandings about ‘carbon’, encompassing technical, social, and moral discourses; and provide further evidence for the environmental value-action gap in relation to adoption of low-carbon lifestyles. Implications of these findings for promoting public engagement with climate change and carbon capability are discussed.     

Trace element variations in olivine phenocrysts from Ugandan potassic rocks as clues to the chemical characteristics of parental magmas

Olivine phenocrysts in ugandite and leucite basanite from the western branch of the East African Rift have been analysed for up to 34 trace elements by Laser-ICP-MS with detection limits as low as 1 ppb. A combination of point analyses with varying ablation crater diameters and line scans allow the identification of subtle zonations from core to rim, as well as characterization of the chemical effects of contamination along cracks. Trace element concentrations are remarkably uniform between large and small phenocrysts; fractionated leucite basanites (Mg# 59) have higher D _Ca and D _Al, and less fractionated LREE/HREE than MgO-rich ugandites (Mg# 75–80). Minor zonation is seen in elements with cation charges from 5+ to 2+ (P, Ti, Zr, Cr, Al, Sc, V, Cu, Mn, Ni) and show correlation between Ti and Al, but not P. Early phenocryst cores with high Li or Ni, low Mn, or enrichments in many trace elements can be identified, whereas xenocrysts have exceptionally low Na, Cr, Ti, V and Co. Partition coefficients for Ni are 31–35, less than in lamproites, with which they demonstrate an approximately linear correlation with K₂O content, K₂O/Al₂O₃ and K₂O/Na₂O of the melt, but none with SiO₂ content or Mg#. D-values for Cr, Mn and Co overlap with those of basalts, whereas those for Sc (0.011–0.018), Zn (0.44–0.49) and Ga (0.006–0.007) are lower. D _V of various potassic rocks (0.015 in the Ugandan rocks) confirms the dependence on fO₂ calibrated by the Fe³⁺/(Fe³⁺+Fe²⁺) of spinels; the Ugandan potassic rocks crystallized at fO₂ = FMQ to FMQ + 1. The ugandite olivines have some trace element characteristics reminiscent of those in metasomatized Kaapvaal peridotites, but not ocean islands. Line scan analyses are contaminated in Al, Ca, Cu, Ga, Sr, Zr, Nb, La and Ce, elements that are also concentrated in microcracks between subgrains, indicating smearing out during polishing, and demonstrating that large spot analyses produce the best results.     

Emission metrics under the 2 °C climate stabilization target

In multi-gas climate policies such as the Kyoto Protocol one has to decide how to compare the emissions of different greenhouse gases. The choice of metric could have significant implications for mitigation priorities considered under the prospective negotiations for climate mitigation agreements. Several metrics have been proposed for this task with the Global Warming Potential (GWP) being the most common. However, these metrics have not been systematically compared to each other in the context of the 2 °C climate stabilization target. Based on a single unified modeling framework, we demonstrate that metric values span a wide range, depending on the metric structure and the treatment of the time dimension. Our finding confirms the basic salient point that metrics designed to represent different aspects of the climate and socio-economic system behave differently. Our result also reflects a complex interface between science and policy surrounding metrics. Thus, it is important to select or design a metric suitable for climate stabilization based on an interaction among practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.     

The Cosmic Foreground Explorer (COFE): A balloon-borne microwave polarimeter to characterize polarized foregrounds

The COsmic Foreground Explorer (COFE) is a balloon-borne microwave polarimeter designed to measure the low-frequency and low-ℓ characteristics of dominant diffuse polarized foregrounds. Short duration balloon flights from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will allow the telescope to cover up to 80% of the sky with an expected sensitivity per pixel better than 100 μK/deg² from 10 GHz to 20 GHz. This is an important effort toward characterizing the polarized foregrounds for future CMB experiments, in particular the ones that aim to detect primordial gravity wave signatures in the CMB polarization angular power spectrum.     

Evolution of H2O content in a polymetamorphic terrane: the Plattengneiss Shear Zone (Koralpe, Austria)

The Koralpe of the Eastern European Alps experienced high-temperature/low-pressure metamorphism (∼650 °C and 6.5 kbar) during the Permian and eclogite facies metamorphism (∼700 °C and 14 kbar) during the Eo-Alpine (Cretaceous) metamorphic event. In the metapelitic Plattengneiss shear zone that constitutes much of the Koralpe, the second metamorphism caused only partial re-equilibration of the assemblages formed during the first metamorphism. It is shown here that the Eo-Alpine mineral assemblage, garnet + biotite + muscovite + plagioclase + quartz (with or without kyanite), formed under low water activity conditions that are consistent with the level of dehydration that occurred during the Permian event. This implies that the rocks were essentially closed-system from the peak of the Permian metamorphism through the Eo-Alpine event. The evolution of water content of the rocks is traced through time: that prograde dewatering during the Permian metamorphic event terminated at the metamorphic peak with a water content around 3–4 mol.%. The water content remained then constant and led to water-undersaturation during the subsequent Eo-Alpine metamorphism. From the water content and activity evolution a post-peak isothermal decompression path close to the solidus is inferred for the Eo-Alpine event.