Acute ecological risk associated with soot deposition: a Persian Gulf case study

Many studies have been carried out in the past to provide solutions to the threat of chemicals to the ecosystem. However, the basic scientific capability to predict the risk of adverse effects on the ecological system has not kept pace with society's increasing demand for uses of chemicals. As a scientific methodology for quantifying the risk to the environment associated with exposure to chemicals, ecological risk assessment is increasingly important in environmental problem solving. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for conducting ecological risk assessment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. A systematic discussion on elements of ecological risk assessment is presented. A framework of ecological risk assessment is explained with the help of the Persian Gulf environmental problem as a case study. The study was based on the output of a long-range transport model of soot deposition in the Gulf. Results of the assessment using the deterministic and probabilistic approaches are discussed.     

Boundary element modeling of multidirectional random waves in a harbor with partially reflecting boundaries

A numerical model is presented for the prediction of the wave field due to the diffraction of directional random waves in a harbor of arbitrary shape with partially reflecting boundaries. The water depth is assumed uniform and the method is based upon the superposition of diffraction solutions for monochromatic waves obtained by a two-dimensional boundary integral equation approach. The incident wave conditions are specified using a discrete form of the Mitsuyasu directional spectrum. The present numerical model has been validated through comparisons with previous experimental data and theoretical results for both regular and random wave diffraction by offshore breakwaters and in harbors. Good agreement was obtained in all cases. Based on these comparisons it is concluded that the present numerical model is an accurate and efficient tool to predict the wave field inside a harbor or around a breakwater in many practical applications.     

Effectiveness of the Bjerknes stability index in representing ocean dynamics

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring coupled phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean that relies on ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. The Bjerknes stability index (BJ index), derived from the mixed-layer heat budget, aims to quantify the ENSO feedback process in order to explore the linear stability properties of ENSO. More recently, the BJ index has been used for model intercomparisons, particularly for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. This study investigates the effectiveness of the BJ index in representing the key ENSO ocean feedbacks—namely the thermocline, zonal advective, and Ekman feedbacks—by evaluating the amplitudes and phases of the BJ index terms against the corresponding heat budget terms from which they were derived. The output from Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Ocean Model (a global ocean/sea ice flux-forced model) is used to calculate the heat budget in the equatorial Pacific. Through the model evaluation process, the robustness of the BJ index terms are tested. We find that the BJ index overestimates the relative importance of the thermocline feedback to the zonal advective feedback when compared with the corresponding terms from the heat budget equation. The assumption of linearity between variables in the BJ index formulation is the primary reason for these differences. Our results imply that a model intercomparison relying on the BJ index to explain ENSO behavior is not necessarily an accurate quantification of dynamical differences between models that are inherently nonlinear. For these reasons, the BJ index may not fully explain underpinning changes in ENSO under global warming scenarios.     

Sediment‐rich meltwater plumes and ice‐proximal fans at the margins of modern and ancient tidewater glaciers: Observations and modelling

Turbid meltwater plumes and ice‐proximal fans occur where subglacial streams reach the grounded marine margins of modern and ancient tidewater glaciers. However, the spacing and temporal stability of these subglacial channels is poorly understood. This has significant implications for understanding the geometry and distribution of Quaternary and ancient ice‐proximal fans that can form important aquifers and hydrocarbon reservoirs. Remote‐sensing and numerical‐modelling techniques are applied to the 200 km long marine margin of a Svalbard ice cap, Austfonna, to quantify turbid meltwater‐plume distribution and predict its temporal stability. Results are combined with observations from geophysical data close to the modern ice front to refine existing depositional models for ice‐proximal fans. Plumes are spaced ca 3 km apart and their distribution along the ice front is stable over decades. Numerical modelling also predicts the drainage pattern and meltwater discharge beneath the ice cap; modelled water‐routing patterns are in reasonable agreement with satellite‐mapped plume locations. However, glacial retreat of several kilometres over the past 40 years has limited build‐up of significant ice‐proximal fans. A single fan and moraine ridge is noted from marine‐geophysical surveys. Closer to the ice front there are smaller recessional moraines and polygonal sediment lobes but no identifiable fans. Schematic models of ice‐proximal deposits represent varying glacier‐terminus stability: (i) stable terminus where meltwater sedimentation produces an ice‐proximal fan; (ii) quasi‐stable terminus, where glacier readvance pushes or thrusts up ice‐proximal deposits into a morainal bank; and (iii) retreating terminus, with short still‐stands, allowing only small sediment lobes to build up at melt‐stream portals. These modern investigations are complemented with outcrop and subsurface observations and numerical modelling of an ancient, Ordovician glacial system. Thick turbidite successions and large fans in the Late Ordovician suggest either high‐magnitude events or sustained high discharge, consistent with a relatively mild palaeo‐glacial setting for the former North African ice sheet.     

Rare-earths in size fractions and sedimentary rocks of Pennsylvanian-Permian age from the mid-continent of the U.S.A.

The REE (rare-earth) contents of sixty-three <2 μ fractions of Pennsylvanian and Permian platform sediment from the mid-continent of the U.S.A. vary considerably (ΣREE = 46–439 ppm;La/ Lu = 5.2–15.7; correlation coefficient of REE with La/Lu = 0.89), but the Eu/Sm ratios are nearly constant even in reducing environments that concentrate U (0.16–0.22). There is no correlation of REE content to clay mineralogy.Lower Permian <2 μ fractions from continental to nearshore marine sediment in Oklahoma have higher REE content (244–261 ppm) than marine facies in Kansas (46–140ppm), but <2μ Upper Permian fractions in an evaporite basin have constant but high REE content (288–281 ppm; one = 153—ppm). All Pennsylvanian <2 μ fractions from Oklahoma have high REE content (209–439 ppm), and fractions from Kansas cyclothems have variable REE content (86–438 ppm). REE content in the <2 μ fractions is inherited from the provenance, but is modified by ion exchange during weathering, transportation, or deposition. Exchangable REE tend to be concentrated in clay minerals in basic environments, but removed in acid environments.Sand and gravel-size fractions consist mostly of quartz or chert so their REE content is low (7.9–40.6 ppm) although heavy minerals may contribute a large fraction of the REE content. Unexpectedly, silt-size fractions have REE contents (74–355 ppm) that are usually lower but similar to their <2 μ fractions, and the REE contents do not correlate to clay mineral/quartz ratios. The interpretation of REE content in sedimentary rocks needs to be done cautiously due to the above factors.     

Multiproxy record for the last 4500 years from Lake Shkodra (Albania/Montenegro)

A multi‐proxy record is presented for approximately the last 4500 cal a BP from Lake Shkodra, Albania/Montenegro. Lithological analyses, C/N ratio and δ¹³C of the organic and inorganic carbon component suggest that organic matter and bulk carbonate are predominantly authigenic. The δ¹⁸O record of bulk carbonate indicates the presence of two prominent wet periods: one at ca. 4300 cal a BP and one at ca. 2500–2000 cal a BP. The latter phase is also found in southern Spain and Central Italy, and represents a prominent event in the western and central Mediterranean. In the last 2000 years, four relatively wet intervals occurred between ca. 1800 and 1500 cal a BP (150–450 AD), 1350–1250 (600–700 AD), 1100–800 (850–1150 AD), and at ca. 90 cal a BP (1860 AD). Between ca. 4100 and 2500 cal a BP δ¹⁸O values are relatively high, with three prominent peaks indicating drier conditions at ca. 4100–4000 cal a BP, ca. 3500 and at ca. 3300 cal a BP. Four additional drier events are identified at 1850 (ca. 100 AD), 1400 (ca. 550 AD), 1150 (800 AD) and ca.750 cal a BP (1200 AD). The pollen record does not show changes in accordance with these episodes owing to the poor sensitivity of vegetation in this area, which is dominated by an orographic rainfall effect and where changes in altitudinal vegetation belts do not affect the pollen rain in the lake catchment. However, since ca. 900 cal a BP a significant decrease in the percentage arboreal pollen and in pollen concentrations suggest major deforestation produced by human activities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic Modeling of Groundwater Extractions over a Data-Sparse Region of Australia

Setting limit on groundwater extractions is important to ensure sustainable groundwater management. Lack of extraction data can affect interpretations of historical pressure changes, predictions of future impacts, accuracy of groundwater model calibration, and identification of sustainable management options. Yet, many groundwater extractions are unmetered. Therefore, there is a need for models that estimate extraction rates and quantify model outputs uncertainties arising due to a lack of data. This paper develops such a model within the Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) framework, using a case study of stock and domestic (SD) extractions in the Surat Cumulative Management Area, a predominantly cattle farming region in eastern Australia. Various types of extraction observations were used, ranging from metering to analytically-derived estimates. GLMs were developed and applied to estimate the property-level extraction amounts, where observation types were weighted by perceived relative accuracy, and well usage status. The primary variables found to affect property-level extraction rates were: yearly average temperature and rainfall, pasture, property area, and number of active wells; while variables most affecting well usage were well water electrical conductivity, spatial coordinates, and well age. Results were compared with analytical estimates of property-level extraction, illustrating uncertainties and potential biases across 20 hydrogeological units. Spatial patterns of mean extraction rates (and standard deviations) are presented. It is concluded that GLMs are well suited to the problem of extraction rate estimation and uncertainty analysis, and are ideal when model verification is supported by measurement of a random sample of properties.     

Modification and testing of a one‐dimensional energy and mass balance model for supraglacial snowpacks

A one‐dimensional energy and mass balance snow model (SNTHERM) has been modified for use with supraglacial snowpacks and applied to a point on Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. It has been adapted to incorporate the underlying glacier ice and a site‐specific, empirically derived albedo routine. Model performance was tested against continuous measurements of snow depth and meltwater outflow from the base of the snowpack, and intermittent measurements of surface albedo and snowpack density profiles collected during the 1993 and 2000 melt seasons. Snow and ice ablation was simulated accurately. The timing of the daily pattern of meltwater outflow was well reproduced, although magnitudes were generally underestimated, possibly indicating preferential flow into the snowpack lysimeter. The model was used to assess the quantity of meltwater stored temporally within the unsaturated snowpack and meltwater percolation rates, which were found to be in agreement with dye tracer experiments undertaken on this glacier. As with other energy balance studies on alpine valley glaciers, the energy available for melt was dominated by net radiation (64%), with a sizable contribution from sensible heat flux (36%) and with a negligible latent heat flux overall, although there was more complex temporal variation on diurnal timescales. A basic sensitivity analysis indicated that melt rates were most sensitive to radiation, air temperature and snowpack density, indicating the need to accurately extrapolate/interpolate these variables when developing a spatially distributed framework for this model. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time-series Paschen-β spectroscopy of SU Aurigae

We present time-series echelle spectra of the Paβ line of the T Tauri star SU Aur, observed over three consecutive nights. The line shows strong variability (∼10 per cent) over the velocity range 100–420 km s⁻¹ in the red broad absorption component, and weaker variability (∼2 per cent) over the velocity range  −200–0 km s⁻¹  in the blue wing. The variability in the velocity range  −200–0 km s⁻¹  is correlated with that in  200–400 km s⁻¹  , and the variability in these velocity ranges anticorrelates with that in  0–100 km s⁻¹  . The mean spectrum from the second night shows the suggestion of a blueshifted absorption component at about  −150 km s⁻¹  , similar to that found in the Hα and Hβ lines. We find the position of the subpeak in the red absorption component changes steadily with time, and its motion modulates at half the rotational period. We also find that the modulation of the line equivalent width is possibly associated with a half and a third of the rotational period, which is consistent with the surface Doppler images of SU Aur. Radiative transfer models of a rotationally modulated Paβ line, produced in the shock-heated magnetospheric accretion flow, are also presented. Models with a magnetic dipole offset reproduce the overall characteristics of the observed line variability, including the line equivalent width and the motion of the subpeak in the red absorption trough.     

An annually resolved bristlecone pine carbon isotope chronology for the last millennium

We present the first near millennium-length, annually resolved stable isotope record from bristlecone pines (Pinus longaeva, D.K Bailey). The carbon isotope ratios from the cellulose of seven trees from the White Mountains of California, corrected for anthropogenic changes in atmospheric chemistry, are used to reconstruct growing season (June through August) precipitation back to AD 1085. Extremely negative isotope results are strongly correlated with proposed severest El Niño events over the last 500 yr, and similar values in the first half of the millennium are used to reconstruct a further 13 strong El Niño events, concentrated in the 12th Century and the mid 13th and 14th Centuries. Ring-width chronologies from adjacent sites in the White Mountains demonstrate a high degree of decadal covariance with the δ¹³C series, although there are several periods of notable divergence.